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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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One thing to keep in mind right now is that we are still 5 to 6 days away (maybe even 7 for folks inland), and typically even if models are clustered over a small area 6 days out, they'll change quite a bit by the time the storm hits. Anyone in the Mid-Atlantic remembers the doomsday scenarios spit out by the models for Hurricane Joaquin 4 or 5 days out, and they weren't even remotely close. I know this setup is a world apart than that of Joaquin, but my point is still there. Absolutely nothing is off the table.

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Thru 48 hr, 18z GFS trending further west with the N Atlantic ridge.  Position of Florence near 12z position

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One thing to keep in mind right now is that we are still 5 to 6 days away (maybe even 7 for folks inland), and typically even if models are clustered over a small area 6 days out, they'll change quite a bit by the time the storm hits. Anyone in the Mid-Atlantic remembers the doomsday scenarios spit out by the models for Hurricane Joaquin 4 or 5 days out, and they weren't even remotely close. I know this setup is a world apart than that of Joaquin, but my point is still there. Absolutely nothing is off the table.


The Euro nailed that one


.
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1 hour ago, flotownsc said:

I believe this is going to go back South. Landfall between Georgetown SC and Wilmington, NC.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

I was almost 9 when Hugo hit. I can’t imagine the effects now with the population and building that  has taken place since...

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Ridge is further west than the 12z GFS.  Good chance the storm goes further west also.

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I was almost 9 when Hugo hit. I can’t imagine the effects now with the population and building that  has taken place since...
Same here I was 8 when Hugo came through, I was in Florence.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Good bye next summer vaca In the outer banks .. or good bye outer banks I should say 

Your not lying. It just sits over the islands and spins. At the very least NC-12 would have to be rebuilt. 

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5 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

All said and done I bet this ends up where the original runs were going . Northeast between jersey shore and long island 

This is not going to be a nor'easter. 

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4 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

All said and done I bet this ends up where the original runs were going . Northeast between jersey shore and long island 

More like between cape hatteras and OCMD..

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5 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

All said and done I bet this ends up where the original runs were going . Northeast between jersey shore and long island 

You are wishcasting and not likely.

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This is worst case for us.  I am in Leland NC. 3.5 miles southwest of ILM.  We are also the highest point in the county of Brunswick. 75ft.  Our house is fully up to new codes. But I am getting nervous.  

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5 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

All said and done I bet this ends up where the original runs were going . Northeast between jersey shore and long island 

Wishcasting.  And it's much more likely to strike FL than NJ or even VA for that matter.  This ridge will keep it south.

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I wonder if cape hatteras lighthouse would survive? If it lingered that long and the pressure is as low as the GFS says?

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Large area of 24+ rain totals just off the outer banks.

Edit: 49" total offshore pivotal wx . And thats just through 156hrs.

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Just now, hickory said:

I wonder if cape hatteras lighthouse would survive? If it lingered that long and the pressure is as low as the GFS says?

There may not be a island after all of this....

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1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

SECOND LANDFALL ON GFS?!?! JUST WOW!

I call this one the Lighthouse Destroyer.  First goes for Cape Hatteras, then loops back and gets Cape Lookout

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

I call this one the Lighthouse Destroyer.  First goes for Cape Hatteras, then loops back and gets Cape Lookout

The model missed SC the first time so it's having a second go at it.

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Good lord. Lets hope the GFS is off its rocker. We've seen storms loop around through our state in the past but they did keep moving. Maybe not too much with Floyd, but it was a weaker storm compared to how this is modeled sitting on our coast. 

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I have to say I’m not dissapointed to see NC get hit instead of my house, but I hope to at least get in on the biblical rains up here. It would be quite a bummer to get a major into NC and then have it get kicked East. Just because the setup is so rare to have a potentially strengthening system moving North at that latitude. 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

I have to say I’m not dissapointed to see NC get hit instead of my house, but I hope to at least get in on the biblical rains up here. It would be quite a bummer to get a major into NC and then have it get kicked East. Just because the setup is so rare to have a potentially strengthening system moving North at that latitude. 

We're still a week away...

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