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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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The biggest takeaway from the 12z runs, to me, is the expected (by myself) beginning of a slightly more northward trend in the consensus of the major models.   As I've stated previously, I don't anticipate a landfall south of NC...and more likely a landfall north of Topsail Beach.  I'd place the probabilities, currently, at 15% S of NC, 50% NC direct landfall, and 35% brush with the Outer Banks.  

This is based on the expectation that the WAR will not verify as strong as simulated by the more southerly track solutions.  

Even though we're continuously drawing closer to a potential landfall, it's still too soon to make any definitive projections on where Florence will ultimately be in 5.5 days from now.  Looking forward to the Gulfstream IV data being ingested into the model runs and Recon data, as well. Without that data, it's still possible to see a significant change in the modeled tracks, thereafter.   

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2 minutes ago, hickory said:

My cousin lives in a trailer in hampstead. We talked about the potential Hurricane and he said he is sending his wife and kids to Greensboro, but gonna ride it out no matter what. I told him goodbye.

My brother is in Sneed's Ferry, about 100 yards from the sound, BUT about 20' in elevation..  In a "modular Home".. I called him & asked if His insurance is up to date..

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2 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

The biggest takeaway from the 12z runs, to me, is the expected (by myself) beginning of a slightly more northward trend in the consensus of the major models.   As I've stated previously, I don't anticipate a landfall south of NC...and more likely a landfall north of Topsail Beach.  I'd place the probabilities, currently, at 15% S of NC, 50% NC direct landfall, and 35% brush with the Outer Banks.  

This is based on the expectation that the WAR will not verify as strong as simulated by the more southerly track solutions.  

Even though we're continuously drawing closer to a potential landfall, it's still too soon to make any definitive projections on where Florence will ultimately be in 5.5 days from now.  Looking forward to the Gulfstream IV data being ingested into the model runs and Recon data, as well. Without that data, it's still possible to see a significant change in the modeled tracks, thereafter.   

Cape Fear Lock, First call, (I'll eat my crow later).. Gladly w/Wells BBQ Sauce

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14 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Going to take before pics of topsail next week... There was a row of homes that look like they are 1 storm away from going into the sea. :(

N.E. (North Topsail) will be GONE.. 

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it'd be great if we just let barrier islands be barrier islands and didnt allow building on them. humans are so dumb sometimes. trying to beat mother nature is like trying to beat the casino.

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Just now, flotownsc said:

I believe this is going to go back South. Landfall between Georgetown SC and Wilmington, NC.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

That will be catastrophic. Horry and Brunswick are the fastest growing counties for NC and SC retrospectively with most being senior citizens. 

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Very low shear environment from here forward, 28-9 sea surface and optimal forward propagation suggest RI probability of 50% overnight, increasing to 60% and then 70% tomorrow and tomorrow night, respectively 

edit: incidentally, if you're rooting for an out-to-sea track to verify then root for that convective feature near Bermuda to develop into a legit depression 

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The 12z ECMWF resolves an upper level low over the Bahamas/S. Florida and TUTT over the central Caribbean/Hispaniola. You can see 20-30 kts of 300mb SE flow coming around those features. I realize this is somewhat negligible as far as negative environmental aspects and modeling is still too far out to give it much credence, but I am trying to nitpick and find perhaps at least something that could impart southerly 400-300 mb level shear on Florence. I say this because the 250 mb flow and above outflow pattern on every model is absurdly favorable at that range.7f46feb756532f59cf20b77351c90991.jpg

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40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty good agreement there near NC. 

Yea, starting to see a clustering for NC then up towards Norfolk before the stall.

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IR satellite presentation is going to rapidly improve overnight. It already is starting to now... attempting to redevelop a well established CDO with strong convection starting to wrap around the center again in the last few hours.

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2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Assuming a landfall does possibly happen near Wilmington/Moorehead City area, how is the inner banks storm surge wise? 

Too early for forecast.  Surge really can't be predicted until about 72 hours out when we have a better idea of speed, timing and strength.

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3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

IR satellite presentation is going to rapidly improve overnight. It already is starting to now... attempting to redevelop a well established CDO with strong convection starting to wrap around the center again in the last few hours.

Dry air junk is being mixed out also. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Too early for forecast.  Surge really can't be predicted until about 72 hours out when we have a better idea of speed, timing and strength.

Geographic surge prone wise I meant.

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4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Assuming a landfall does possibly happen near Wilmington/Moorehead City area, how is the inner banks storm surge wise? 

Good as gone because you can get the double threat from the Atlantic, winds turn, and here comes another surge from the sounds.

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11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, starting to see a clustering for NC then up towards Norfolk before the stall.

What is causing the stall? Is there some sort of maximum level to the N the storm can reach before it would have to stall?

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On the last few GOES 16 visible frames, you can see a bunch of hot towers going up on the northeast side of the circulation.

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39 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Going to take before pics of topsail next week... There was a row of homes that look like they are 1 storm away from going into the sea. :(

Topsail is our families favorite vacation spot. It's been almost 2 years since we've made it down there. (Went to Disney instead) but I remember some homes on the north side of the island then were precariously close to the water in good weather. 

In-laws are planning to move down around Hampstead end of the month... Maybe. :(

It's a beautiful area.. I'll be rooting for it to escape unscathed. 

Invest 94 might be enough fly in the ointment to give an earlier escape. 

 

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5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Assuming a landfall does possibly happen near Wilmington/Moorehead City area, how are the inner banks storm surge wise? Like how prone are they?

I would have to go back to Irene which set some records for inner banks surge, eclipsing Fran, but 7-10’ with locally higher.

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Busy with work all weekend, but thought I'd provide a visual presentation of what a 100 kt (115 mph) category-three hurricane wind...with gusts of 140 mph...looks like.   

Edit: highest winds after 1:00

 

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9 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Assuming a landfall does possibly happen near Wilmington/Moorehead City area, how are the inner banks storm surge wise? Like how prone are they?

well depending on track and speed it can be crazy.....10-12 ft is considered about the top end though as there is only so much water in the sound to shove up the Pamlico and Neuse rivers....Irene did that as a Cat 1 due to her slow speed and keeping the sound in the NE quad for hrs.....length of time has more to do with it that strength of the winds....further inland 8-10 ft is possible and would greatly impact many towns on the rivers....even in Greenville where I live which is inland a good bit the river is tidal... though we see little effect from surge other than backing the river up

 

 

 

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Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

A NOAA P3 aircraft conducted a research mission several hours ago
in Florence and measured SFMR surface winds of around 60 kt and
winds up to 65 kt at a flight level of 8000 feet.  Velocities of
65-70 kt at 500 meters were also measured by the Doppler radar on
the plane.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is raised to
60 kt.  Dropsonde data also showed that the central pressure was
down to 989 mb.

Florence is slowly recovering from the dry air its circulation
ingested while it was under the influence of strong shear.
Convection in the outer bands is relatively thin but is deeper and
more persistent near the center.  Now that the shear has decreased
and the warm waters ahead of Florence reach deeper into the ocean,
continued strengthening is anticipated.  In fact, the official
forecast continues to show a period of rapid intensification, now
beginning 12-24 hours, with Florence reaching major hurricane
intensity between 36-48 hours.  One fly in the ointment is that the
SHIPS diagnostics are keeping mid-level relative humidities around
the cyclone around 50 percent, which isn't particularly moist, but
I'm going to assume that Florence will be able to scour out the dry
air within its circulation in the coming days.  The HCCA model and
the ICON intensity consensus support maintaining a forecast peak
intensity of 125 kt in 4 days or so, so no significant changes were
made from the previous forecast.  Regardless of the specifics of
the other models--some of which are higher and some of which are
lower--Florence is expected to be a powerful major hurricane on
days 3 through 5 as it moves across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Florence is creeping westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt, trapped
between high pressure to its northeast and southwest.  A different
blocking ridge is expected to develop north and northeast of
Bermuda over the next few days, causing Florence to accelerate
toward the west-northwest and northwest between days 3-5.  There
have been some notable shifts in the model guidance on this cycle,
with the ECMWF model swinging to the northeast closer to the GFS,
and the HWRF model swinging farther south along the southern edge
of the guidance envelope.  Despite this change in the deterministic
ECMWF run, its individual ensemble members are still showing a
significant spread of solutions from just north of the Bahamas to
offshore the coast of North Carolina by day 5.  Because of this
spread, the updated NHC track forecast largely maintains
continuity and remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.
And despite the ECMWF's shift, this track prediction remains north
of the HCCA and FSSE solutions.

Key Messages:

1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the
southeast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct
impacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in
track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those
impacts.

2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north
Florida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress
of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and
follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue into next week.  These swells will result in
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 24.6N  54.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 24.6N  55.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 24.7N  56.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 25.0N  58.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 25.4N  60.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 26.9N  66.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 29.5N  72.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 32.5N  77.0W  120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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3 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Busy with work all weekend, but thought I'd provide a visual presentation of what a 100 kt (115 mph) category-three hurricane wind...with gusts of 140 mph...looks like.   

Edit: highest winds around 1:09

 

So do you think it will get to this in your area?

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30 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Assuming a landfall does possibly happen near Wilmington/Moorehead City area, how are the inner banks storm surge wise? Like how prone are they?

Dennis recurves off the coast and stalled for a few days. He then came ashore moving west just south of the pamlico river as a TS and put more water in the river than either fran or Bertha. So a lot depends on strength and angle of landfall. If she came ashore at morehead I would expect 8 foot or more over the pamlico near Washington and belhaven.

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This video shows the way it works in the sounds/rivers well...early in the video the center if Irene was SW of them and the winds had shoved all the water up the rivers so they could walk half a mile out into the "sound" and there is no water....all that water is up the rivers so you get results like the earlier video I posted...then once the center gets NW of them the wind turns and pushes it all back out, luckily the back side is weaker so they dont get 8-10 ft of water like they did inland...

 

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33 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Topsail is our families favorite vacation spot. It's been almost 2 years since we've made it down there. (Went to Disney instead) but I remember some homes on the north side of the island then were precariously close to the water in good weather. 

In-laws are planning to move down around Hampstead end of the month... Maybe. :(

It's a beautiful area.. I'll be rooting for it to escape unscathed. 

Invest 94 might be enough fly in the ointment to give an earlier escape. 

 

if invest 94 is still around florence will devour it....

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3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

if invest 94 is still around florence will devour it....

No it doesn’t work that way, not if the invest is situated so as to depress heights in a small window to the N of her track

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49 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Busy with work all weekend, but thought I'd provide a visual presentation of what a 100 kt (115 mph) category-three hurricane wind...with gusts of 140 mph...looks like.   

Edit: highest winds after 1:00

 

When I see this I really start to appreciate the glory of human engineering... even in everyday "items" like homes. Blows my mind that structures can survive stuff like this.

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