• Member Statistics

    15,621
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Thunder struck
    Newest Member
    Thunder struck
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

Recommended Posts

Not to be a broken record, but the accuracy of the CMC is so poor for tropical track forecasting I can't fathom why it gets discussed (other than easy viewing availabilty and early run times).

There is a reason the CMC isn't included in the consensus models. It would make them LESS accurate

UKMET has much more usefulness but hardly gets mentioned (it's much more in the EC than the GFS camp). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's no doubt about the CMC track record. However, it can be useful in verifying the plausibility of another, more reliable model's solution. At the very least, it lends some credibility to the idea of a total miss of the first trough at D4/D5 due to a weak/less vertically deep system, which is going to be critical further down the road. Careful not to just toss it just for the sake of tossing it.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

Not to be a broken record, but the accuracy of the CMC is so poor for tropical track forecasting I can't fathom why it gets discussed (other than easy viewing availabilty and early run times).

There is a reason the CMC isn't included in the consensus models. It would make them LESS accurate

UKMET has much more usefulness but hardly gets mentioned (it's much more in the EC than the GFS camp). 

Looks like the ukmet came in with a more southerly track at 12z if I am not mistaken. We are talking at least 10-12 days before impacts could possibly be felt so that's about 20+ model runs of the euro and uk so that's 20+ changes we will have to wait and see about.

Weaker means more risk in this case.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z GFS is farther west, just like the euro and the CMC is. They're definitely onto something... inb4 it all shifts back east again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even stronger blocking 500 mb heights on Monday's 0z ECMWF vs Sunday's 12z. Again, 200 hrs out though. If the Euro continues this I'm going to have to add a weenie disclaimer.435eaef0974218fa19ac75315f5fe89a.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There sure are some interesting scenarios for Florence down the road.  This morning's op Euro run gets the storm just south of Bermuda, then turns it due west or even wsw toward Florida.  That area near Bermuda is going to be key.  It's pretty much sitting on a fence out there, ready to go right or left depending on a couple factors.  A map of the Euro ensemble tracks, yesterday, showed tracks all over the place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Florence misses the trough in 5-7 days it will still have an opportunity to escape if the ridge develops to its East like the GFS has consistently shown. The Euro digs the trough into the Ohio Valley more, which results in ridge development overhead instead. If that were to happen, Florence would be in an excellent upper level environment with nothing to steer it far enough North to avoid a US impact.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

If Florence misses the trough in 5-7 days it will still have an opportunity to escape if the ridge develops to its East like the GFS has consistently shown. The Euro digs the trough into the Ohio Valley more, which results in ridge development overhead instead. If that were to happen, Florence would be in an excellent upper level environment with nothing to steer it far enough North to avoid a US impact.

I think the conclusion is clear. The euro is much better at handling mid-long range features. The intensity of Florence seems less important but a weaker system would certainly give credence to a southerly track.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said:

I think the conclusion is clear. The euro is much better at handling mid-long range features. The intensity of Florence seems less important but a weaker system would certainly give credence to a southerly track.

The Euro could be over deepening the Ohio valley through which will have large track implications in the long range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro could be over deepening the Ohio valley through which will have large track implications in the long range.

How is the UKmet doing today? That may be an indication of what's happening. The idea of this setup being so sensitive hurts more because well so close yet so far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

If Florence misses the trough in 5-7 days it will still have an opportunity to escape if the ridge develops to its East like the GFS has consistently shown. The Euro digs the trough into the Ohio Valley more, which results in ridge development overhead instead. If that were to happen, Florence would be in an excellent upper level environment with nothing to steer it far enough North to avoid a US impact.

the gfs is so bad it's not even worth mentioning....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

the gfs is so bad it's not even worth mentioning....

BUT may have the correct solution. the odds strongly favor recurve. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Going to be hard to get a storm across the Atlantic to the east coast at that latitude like the EC, UK and CMC are showing.    Luckily it's still 10 days out, so there's no need to commit to a solution now.

EDIT: EPS gave the OP the middle finger.

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Amped said:

Going to be hard to get a storm across the Atlantic to the east coast at that latitude like the EC, UK and CMC are showing.    Luckily it's still 10 days out, so there's no need to commit to a solution now.

EDIT: EPS gave the OP the middle finger.

 

Everyone likes to throw around the EPS ensembles like they are the be all end all in tropical forecasting. In reality, they don’t deserve any more weight than the various tropical spaghetti models. I would certainly give more weight to the operational guidance at this range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jewell2188 said:

BUT may have the correct solution. the odds strongly favor recurve. 

As I outlined earlier, Florence needs to miss the first weakness in the ridge and then the ridge needs to develop like the Euro shows. Climo really isn’t at play here. It comes down to the various features and one can easily see how Florence could make it to the coast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NJwx85 said:

As I outlined earlier, Florence needs to miss the first weakness in the ridge and then the ridge needs to develop like the Euro shows. Climo really isn’t really at play here. It comes down to the various features and one can easily see how Florence could make it to the coast.

That's another reason why I remain uncommitted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Amped said:

That's another reason why I remain uncommitted.

 

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

As I outlined earlier, Florence needs to miss the first weakness in the ridge and then the ridge needs to develop like the Euro shows. Climo really isn’t at play here. It comes down to the various features and one can easily see how Florence could make it to the coast.

As stated already, this latitude does not favor an EC hit. Extremely hard to get a hit. Many factors at play but if I had to bet I would favor recurve. We shall see!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

 

As stated already, this latitude does not favor an EC hit. Extremely hard to get a hit. Many factors at play but if I had to bet I would favor recurve. We shall see!!

Based strictly on climo alone, I agree. However it’s not rocket science to see why the Euro has consistently shown Florence impacting the East coast.

The 18z GFS seems to have made a correction West before still finding the weakness.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18Z GFS slightly folded to the Euro. Many more runs to go! 

 

There was 1 member on the GFS ensemble that had the same track at the Euro OP. 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_40.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Florence probably won't threaten the Mid-Atlantic. We've lucked on missing many of the hurricanes and tropical storms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

00z Euro OTS as well as the GFS. It was a great storm to track. Not interested in a fish storm

Not wishing disasters on anyone btw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said:

00z Euro OTS as well as the GFS. It was a great storm to track. Not interested in a fish storm

Not wishing disasters on anyone btw

TBF, yes you are, so own it.

I will never get why people lose interest in storms likely to go OTS.  You can learn just as much from tracking those as the ones that kill thousands, albeit you don’t get the disaster-porn c*mshot at the end.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surprised that nobody mentioned that the 06z GFS shifted the track several hundred miles to the Southwest of the previous run. 

The forecast trend has been for stronger ridging North of the track.

gfs_z500trend_atl_17.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Surprised that nobody mentioned that the 06z GFS shifted the track several hundred miles to the Southwest of the previous run. 

The forecast trend has been for stronger ridging North of the track.

 

There's a lot of moving pieces, but a stable enough/strong enough ridge to drive Florence into the East Coast seems unlikely to me. With the trend being a more northern track in the short/medium range, it makes it a lot more of a thread the needle situation for Florence to get caught under the ridge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.