• Member Statistics

    15,882
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LanaM
    Newest Member
    LanaM
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

For those who "want" to see this run up the coast... a stronger trough is what you want

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Florence is nowhere near the trough (Gordon remnants) at that point though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Florence is nowhere near the trough (Gordon remnants) at that point though. 
I did this without looking at the maps (at work) ... however, I'm going with the weakness it can create. I could be wrong synoptically however, and if I am, i stand corrected

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, MarkSC said:

Someone posted the simulated Euro WV image in the SE forum.  It looks like Florence will continue to battle dry air for several days.  Continued weakening is likely looking at current satellite.

I agree that its been sucking dust like crazy. It looks like it's reducing slowly though... Think tomorrow the system will begin to recover. 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hard for me to see but the 12Z and 18Z were very close to each other at landfall this time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually looks like 18Z landfall was a little North of 12Z. Edit: Biggest difference that I see is at landfall it's moving more NNW as opposed to NW

 compaired to 12Z. Never makes it as far inland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ncskywarn said:

Actually looks like 18Z landfall was a little North of 12Z

Believe you are correct. Started out south for most of the run but ended north at landfall

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

I have a gut feeling that the war will weaken opening it up to come more northward. 

Whatever keeps it away from SE NC I am fine with.

  • Like 3
  • Haha 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ocean is very very warm out in front of this thing..anomalously so, all the way to the coast this year, and all the way up the east coast.  

 

Once that shear relaxes enough, this thing is gonna “go to Town”  Any weaknesses in that WAR and more North she comes...lots and lots of time to go=many changes going forward imo.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JMA brings us back to the good old days when model outputs were rectangular.

mcAbPOc.png

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the NWS Raleigh AFD kind of ominous.

While the risk of impacts associated with Florence along the East Coast has increased, there is too much model spread/uncertainty to speculate what kind of impacts we can expect here in central NC. Given current model projections, impacts, if any, will be possible during the mid to late week period. Residents of central NC are strongly encouraged to closely monitor the latest forecasts and to ensure everyone has emergency kits and hurricane plan in place. It is never too early to prepare!

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
From the NWS Raleigh AFD kind of ominous.
While the risk of impacts associated with Florence along the East Coast has increased, there is too much model spread/uncertainty to speculate what kind of impacts we can expect here in central NC. Given current model projections, impacts, if any, will be possible during the mid to late week period. Residents of central NC are strongly encouraged to closely monitor the latest forecasts and to ensure everyone has emergency kits and hurricane plan in place. It is never too early to prepare!

I think that is prudent advice, certainly not ominous. Let’s not get hyperbolic (yet).


.
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s simple, the average track error at this range is around 500 miles or so. That pretty much guarantees this isn’t landfalling where it shows now. We still have far too long to go to make any definitive statements about track or intensity. Best bet is to focus on changes in the short term and the large scale features and then decipher them for yourself. Models are tools, they don’t make forecasts.

Since 1950, we have had more hurricanes ride up the East Coast than go into NC. Do I think that could happen here? Yeah, but you need to convince the EURO of that. That ridge to the north is a monster!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ocean is very very warm out in front of this thing..anomalously so, all the way to the coast this year, and all the way up the east coast.  

 

Once that shear relaxes enough, this thing is gonna “go to Town”  Any weaknesses in that WAR and more North she comes...lots and lots of time to go=many changes going forward imo.

Gulf stream is on fire this year... would make for some very fine nor'easters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

WOW HWRF 195 Kt=225 MPH at the 850 level at hour 120.

hwrf_mslp_uv850_06L_41.png

Doable. Going to bomb out for sure before landfall. 

h20_naQG3_ddc.gif 

h20_naQG3_ddc.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Chucktown81 said:


I think that is prudent advice, certainly not ominous. Let’s not get hyperbolic (yet).


.

Yup.  My translation was:  It's the weekend.  Take a look over what you have and go shopping if you need to.  After all, that bottled water and those batteries won't expire next week.  Plus the people at Amazon, FedEx, UPS, and the USPS are only human if you're trying to buy stuff on Tuesday and the local stores are sold out.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Doable. Going to bomb out for sure before landfall. 

h20_naQG3_ddc.gif 

h20_naQG3_ddc.gif

It’s really hard to predict.  We’ve seen in the last 5 years systems that looked like they’d go crazy and then once the core is disrupted they never take off again.  The bad news is this system has a very long time to go before it would reach land 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very true snowgoose.

 

but as you say ...she’s a ways out there..lots of warm water and distance to do whatever it is it’s gonna do (strengthen or otherwise).   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s really hard to predict.  We’ve seen in the last 5 years systems that looked like they’d go crazy and then once the core is disrupted they never take off again.  The bad news is this system has a very long time to go before it would reach land 

I agree. Models have it redeveloping after 12 hours, so that will be the critical junction. I don't think Florence can take anymore 30kt sheer at this point... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.