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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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9 minutes ago, Seth.P said:

Because it's totally possible. We're still far enough out where almost everything is on the table.

We are still an eternity in modeling "years" away from this final outcome. We are 5 days away from it being 3 days away. We've seen wholesale changes inside of 3 days so while there is good continuity between most models of a threat to east coast it's still what seems like an eternity away.

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9 minutes ago, where is crownsville? said:

I used to belong to another forum but am happy to have relocated to this one!  Looking forward to tracking Florence and reading all your posts and analyses 

This is the only forum to visit. The best of the best are posting here.  But don’t fall victim to the op runs this far out.  I learned that the hard way.   Lots of years and lots of tears.   

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1 minute ago, shaggy said:

We are still an eternity in modeling "years" away from this final outcome. We are 5 days away from it being 3 days away. We've seen wholesale changes inside of 3 days so while there is good continuity between most models of a threat to east coast it's still what seems like an eternity away.

And the Euro doesn't take it that far inland, so would only take a small change for it to never make it to the coast like the GFS shows.

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

And the Euro doesn't take it that far inland, so would only take a small change for it to never make it to the coast like the GFS shows.

Sure. The high could end up stronger and this thing pull a hugo moving wnw or nw. Add the history of never having a storm in this position strike the usa and we have a very complex setup that's not easily settled. 

Going to be an interesting outcome none the less. If we do end up with a cat 3 or 4 approaching the east coast and recurving like irene it would be one heck of a disaster.

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4 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Sure. The high could end up stronger and this thing pull a hugo moving wnw or nw. Add the history of never having a storm in this position strike the usa and we have a very complex setup that's not easily settled. 

Going to be an interesting outcome none the less. If we do end up with a cat 3 or 4 approaching the east coast and recurving like irene it would be one heck of a disaster.

Outside of beach erosion, not really.  An Irene track with a Cat 3 would keep the right front quadrant offshore and it would just be windy rain a la Matthew.

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2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Sure. The high could end up stronger and this thing pull a hugo moving wnw or nw. Add the history of never having a storm in this position strike the usa and we have a very complex setup that's not easily settled. 

Going to be an interesting outcome none the less. If we do end up with a cat 3 or 4 approaching the east coast and recurving like irene it would be one heck of a disaster.

Having a storm in this position to never have striked the us before smells like a 200 Miles off the coast recurve which is just as likely as anything. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Outside of beach erosion, not really.  An Irene track with a Cat 3 would keep the right front quadrant offshore and it would just be windy rain a la Matthew.

Agree it needs to plow into OBX to ORF and head west of due north or else we sit on the sidelines.  That’s a tall order.  Maybe if it regenerates larger.  

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1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

Having a storm in this position to never have striked the us before smells like a 200 Miles off the coast recurve which is just as likely as anything. 

Possible. However go back and read the nhc discos on ike making a dive to the wsw crossing Cuba and making it into the gulf. Nobody thought that was likely at the time either. 

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6 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Sure. The high could end up stronger and this thing pull a hugo moving wnw or nw. Add the history of never having a storm in this position strike the usa and we have a very complex setup that's not easily settled. 

Going to be an interesting outcome none the less. If we do end up with a cat 3 or 4 approaching the east coast and recurving like irene it would be one heck of a disaster.

It won't maintain CAT3 if it stalls along the coast.   But  even a CAT 1 stalled neat VA beach would be bad for the Delmarva, which escaped Sandy and Irene somewhat.

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3 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Possible. However go back and read the nhc discos on ike making a dive to the wsw crossing Cuba and making it into the gulf. Nobody thought that was likely at the time either. 

That was a completly different setup....Something tells me you are wishcasting lol

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5 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Possible. However go back and read the nhc discos on ike making a dive to the wsw crossing Cuba and making it into the gulf. Nobody thought that was likely at the time either. 

Nobody thought Irma would go to the keys either. Point is, don't rule anything out at this time, large amount of time for model spread and possible changes.

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12 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

That was a completly different setup....Something tells me you are wishcasting lol

Lol pointing out that not every storm conforms to our ideas of what is likely or potentially capable of happening isnt wishcasting.

I would be amazed if florence makes landfall from her current position.

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23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Outside of beach erosion, not really.  An Irene track with a Cat 3 would keep the right front quadrant offshore and it would just be windy rain a la Matthew.

For areas away from the immediate coast, a category 1 that moves inland would be much, much worse than a category 3 or 4 that only skirts the coast.

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19 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Having a storm in this position to never have striked the us before smells like a 200 Miles off the coast recurve which is just as likely as anything. 

First off there could have been several storms that hit the US that tracked similar to Florence, the reliable track data only goes back what 60-70 years maybe....so if storm tracking like this has a return time of say 75 years there could easily have been several storms over the last 300-500 yrs that have in fact hit the US after being where Florence is now....I would say its even likely to have happened in the past. 

10 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

That was a completly different setup....Something tells me you are wishcasting lol

Not wishcasting when there are 3-4 models showing landfall over the US east coast from this storm.....though smart money would have to play the odds and call for a miss.....doesnt change that there is uncanny model agreement bringing Florence to the US coast in 7 days or so. 

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11 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Nobody thought Irma would go to the keys either. Point is, don't rule anything out at this time, large amount of time for model spread and possible changes.

If I'm not mistaken the ukmet had her hitting cuba for numerous runs as early as 6 or 7 days out. 

Until we start to see some data sampling missions from the GIV then its really just a wait and see how strong the ridge is modeled versus reality.

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1 hour ago, Amped said:

And the Euro doesn't take it that far inland, so would only take a small change for it to never make it to the coast like the GFS shows.

Look at the 12Z EPS ensemble a fair amount of the members do bring it further inland.

imageproxy.php.png

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Florence looks to have turned almost due west in the last several hours. The vortex nearly decoupled this evening, but appears to be hanging on in a severely weakened state.

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4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Florence looks to have turned almost due west in the last several hours. The vortex nearly decoupled this evening, but appears to be hanging on in a severely weakened state.

Yeah they have her at 290/6 on the 11pm. Also a noticable shift in track as well in the short term.

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35 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Look at the 12Z EPS ensemble a fair amount of the members do bring it further inland.

imageproxy.php.png

There is definitely a cluster near the NC/SC border. Something to take note of.

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Both the HWRF and the experimental IBM deep thunder have Florence obtaining a *very* large eye and complete annular characteristics when it reintensifies. Both models resemble a donut more than a TC. Would think a very large eye would help keep the intensity/pressure down as opposed to a more reasonable eye. Either way, should be interesting if such a large eye manages to take shape. HWRF has done well at predicting general eye character in the past, so it has some credibility going for it. I cannot speak for Deep Thunder.

 

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ICON is a pretty nasty hit strong hurricane into MHX then up over the IBX of NC, right over VA tidewater each then right up the coast to Cape May.....imagine surge would be ridiculous in the sounds and rivers in NC all the way to Delaware Bay.....

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Not that anyone should give much regard to TC position beyond 168 hrs regardless of model, one should especially be skeptical of a global model that simulates such a ridiculous and overblown 500 mb presence for a TC that the feedback interferes with ridge and steering flow placement. Having a sub 920 mb surface low and -80 dm that large at 35N is going to do some wacky stuff. It's annoying but irrelevant that far out, so whatever... At any rate, it would be nice of they made some intensity adjustments on the GFS for high latitudinal TCs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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