• Member Statistics

    15,755
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    larrydan2003
    Newest Member
    larrydan2003
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

Recommended Posts

33 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That should rattle some nerves for officials.less recurve members 

Regardless of all the simulations today, the impacts in our Immediate area are very little. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Regardless of all the simulations today, the impacts in our Immediate area are very little. 

The 12Z GFS had a major hurricane crawling up the coast, with a landfall on Long Island.  
That would greatly impact the immediate area.

It's unlikely that it will play out that way, but I don't see the point in downplaying what the models showed. 

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Sactown4 said:

The 12Z GFS had a major hurricane crawling up the coast, with a landfall on Long Island.  
That would greatly impact the immediate area.

It's unlikely that it will play out that way, but I don't see the point in downplaying what the models showed. 

I was quoting on another post made by member who lives in the same area as me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The media is starting to warn the public about this storm.

Id rather them hype it up and there be nothing than they diminish it and a CAT 5 makes landfall. Better to be safe than sorry. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

I was quoting on another post made by member who lives in the same area as me.

Well, that makes a lot of sense then, and thankfully my post was still reasoned enough to only leave me looking like a partial fool. :)

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Clearly SW through 120.

 

But when it makes its turn it's more N than NW, looks like it won't come as close to coast as at 12z.

Clearly a hurricane can run into a ridge like that. :rolleyes: EURO seems more plausible at this point. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

Clearly a hurricane can run into a ridge like that. :rolleyes: EURO seems more plausible at this point. 

Definitely inclined to favor the Euro/GGEM/UKMET southern solution for now given the GFS's inconsistency. Who knows what the FV3 is going to spit out. <_<

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS wants to wedge 591 dm heights over New England with a 597 dm ridge banked NE to Florence's mid-level circulation. Then the heights drop east of Florence and weaken, decreasing mid-level steering flow and causing a stall. It's not an unlikely solution. However, you increase heights even slightly above NE/mid-Atlantic like on the recent ECMWF runs and you get a much further SW track. Any of these are realistic solutions though.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The main takeaway:

gfs_apcpn_watl_fh132_trend.thumb.gif.df43bea63ab77d43327ee8c1abad22d0.gif

From what I can see in the last frame the beginning of a recurve. Cranky on Twitter is hell bent on the gfs is going to end up being right. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

From what I can see in the last frame the beginning of a recurve. Cranky on Twitter is hell bent on the gfs is going to end up being right. 

I see a dip to the southwest on this run

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18Z HWRF and HMON are both coming in significantly SW of their 12Z runs. 18Z FV3 run is also coming in significantly further S then the 12Z run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

If I had to make a forecast cone, the GEFS would be it:

06L_gefs_latest.png

GEFS over EPS and UKMET ensembles?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those GEFS tracks are also a fairly infrequently seen track for a hurricane.  Generally the re curve happens further south than those show on a system approaching from that far north.  You more often see a recurve that far north on a system that came up from areas further south and west

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said:

When was the last time the GEFS tracks verified for a cyclone... I can't remember

At this range it’s happebed for sure.  Inside Day 5-6 not very often that I remember for a significant  system

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

18Z HWRF and HMON are both coming in significantly SW of their 12Z runs. 18Z FV3 run is also coming in significantly further S then the 12Z run.

yeah they are much closer to the Euro/Ukie/ICon/CMC blend now.....HWRF is well SW of Bermuda heading WNW at the end of the run....a solid 200 miles SW shift since the 06Z run this morning....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, yoda said:

GEFS over EPS and UKMET ensembles?

I'm not saying I trust it more, just that a fairly close brush with the coast seems instinctively to be the more likely outcome. I'm simply speculating though, so I guess this probably isn't the place to do so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I'm not saying I trust it more, just that a fairly close brush with the coast seems instinctively to be the more likely outcome. I'm simply speculating though, so I guess this probably isn't the place to do so.

Since you are part of the Southeast, try the regional discussion here. That would work better there than here.

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51251-2018-general-tropical-discussion/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I'm not saying I trust it more, just that a fairly close brush with the coast seems instinctively to be the more likely outcome. I'm simply speculating though, so I guess this probably isn't the place to do so.

We won’t know anything until the ridge rebuilds and the storm emerges.  Don’t get hung up on any solution.  Whenever we do that in the winter we end up shoveling air.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Why do I get the feeling that a completely new solution will reveal itself to us tonight?

Because it's totally possible. We're still far enough out where almost everything is on the table.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.