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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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Euro looks like the CMC with the H5 pattern at 96. The ridge is further west than the GFS which should slow the recurve.

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Euro making landfall somewhere between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington as a 957mb BEAST. Likely would be a devastating scenario for Wilmington.

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Just now, senc30 said:

EURO follows the GFS and moves north as well. South trend yesterday and north trend today.

Euro trend since yesterday might be entirely due to the fact it initialized a stronger deeper storm today. The H5 pattern is nearly identical outside the storm.

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It's really all about where that High Pressure is. At 00z, it was over Binghamton, NY. At 12z, it's over northern NH and VT, allowing Florence to come more north.

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2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

It's really all about where that High Pressure is. At 00z, it was over Binghamton, NY. At 12z, it's over northern NH and VT, allowing Florence to come more north.

Agreed.  The storm will come as far north as the H allows.  

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Agreed.  The storm will come as far north as the H allows.  

Hope it goes way north then and off to sea!! GO PACK!!

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The FV3 GFS is significantly south of the GFS.

yeah pretty much the same as the 6Z as far as first landfall and path thru NC...nightmare run for MBY that would put 12-15 ft of surge up the Pamlico/Tar and Neuse River basins...and keep me in the north eyewall while it rots with that kind of stall.....so lets hope that one is completely wrong....

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11 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

So Florence may end up hitting Florence? 

I was curious to know if a hurricane has ever hit a spot either directly or indirectly that shared its name? If not a hurricane, than any named tropical cyclone?

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These are promising signs, in my opinion.  Let's hope it is the start of a new trend more north and recurving out to sea with minor land interaction.

With many days to go, this is a good sign.

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If he makes LF, the slow moving flood threat is real with this. Nothing to boot him out once inland. That much is clear on  most guidance. This euro run looks to be slow mover/staller after 144, similar to GFS in that regard.

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Models are in fairly good agreement for 144hrs out. Everything is within 150 miles of the Euro solution, which is right in the middle.

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4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

 

Thats a old run I think.....

Yeah, just realized that was 00z. The Weather.us site is kinda weird... Anyways, 12Z actually shows 140+mph gusts near Wilmington. :unsure:

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Last pass on recon shows a decent symmetrical core with a single radius of maximum wind at 55kt. Pressure still slowly dropping. I think the storm strengthens significantly tonight.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Last pass on recon shows a decent symmetrical core with a single radius of maximum wind at 55kt. Pressure still slowly dropping. I think the storm strengthens significantly tonight.

With shear relaxing only thing holding it back is the dry air on the south and southeastern flanks. That should become less of an issue with time.

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5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The 12z ECMWF run is a nightmare for flooding both tidal-coastal and QPF over the NC/VA Piedmont.

 

 

Still stalled over western NC at 216 hrs.  Thats almost as bad as Harvey.

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6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The 12z ECMWF run is a nightmare for flooding both tidal-coastal and QPF over the NC/VA Piedmont.

 

 

Verbatim it's awful. Here's some of the qpf. 

ME2KGv3.png

 

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My apartment just sent out a alert for Florence. Luckily i'm by a substation, so if we do get a landfall, i shouldn't be without power for too long.

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