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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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1 minute ago, Astella2 said:

Legit makes no sense for it to “miss” judging by the 500 mb. Ridge is trapping this thing. If anything it would just sit off the coast for a day or two but thays certainly not a “miss”

Compare 6z to 12z at 500mb. The area of 594dm heights is much smaller causing this to be roughly 50mi even further east than 6z which was a near miss...

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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Doesn’t move much from 129 to 153 at all if anything slightly east and south? Still a good 100+ miles off shore from OBX..

 

still think an OTS solution is very much still in play. 

Exactly. Find it hard to believe the ridge sustains it’s self for that long of a period as the euro and cmc and Ukmet is depicting. 

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The circled ULL is what is destroying the ridge and allowing the re-curve. It's a SW that pop's up out of nowhere in Mexico and cuts off in the Atlantic. No other model has this. 

GFS.JPG

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The GFS and the EURO see two completely different solutions... but the interesting thing is, they've both been showing the same solutions for a few days. The GFS says a NC scrape and it just stalls and the EURO says a SC landfall and dissipates inland. Usually you see one of those two models cave into the other's solution...

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The orientation of the ridge doesn’t really support landfall anywhere in tbe northeast. This thing is either coming inland in NC/SC/GA or I can see a scenario where it approaches the coast, stalls, then heads east or east-northeast. You’d need a ridge further north than shown to get a storm into the northeast coastline.

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2 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

The orientation of the ridge doesn’t really support landfall anywhere in tbe northeast. This thing is either coming inland in NC/SC or I can see a scenario where it approaches the coast, stalls, then heads east or east-northeast. You’d need a ridge further north than shown to get a storm into the northeast coastline.

Based on what model lol

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The GFS is implausible at least in one regard.  We can't rule out the possibility of a stall prior to landfall, but the GFS also manages to drop the pressure 20-30 mb during the stall.  Not likely.

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13 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Based on what model lol

Based on pattern recognition and the orientation of the US coastline. There’s nothing to pull the storm back northwest once it turns north.

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The thing that I don't like about the gfs is that through the early part of the run the ridge is stronger than 06z and the storm is a touch further south but somehow around 96 to 108 hours it gets further east. It seems unrealistic to me. I think most of the zomg 910mb!!! Is weenie-fodder and is a well-known bias that can be accounted for. Its performance with Florence thus far has been undeniably solid. Looks like the newest ukmet and Canadian are into central SC.  

 

gfs_z500aNorm_eus_19.png

gfs_z500aNorm_eus_20.png

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Yeah, the UK and CMC are considerably farther north than last night through 120/144. Might see a rightward adjustment on the Euro today too. The south/west shift might have halted in favor of a slower, slightly more northerly solution.

The ensemble runs will be interesting to say the least.

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