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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Euro has Florence at 1000MB 24 hrs from now, current pressure on the last update is 999....GFS has her at 985 in 24 hrs.....if she does get together faster I would think the more northern runs are likely to be correct....

She is currently going nuts as well and based off the last 6 hrs or so I would think the 985 might verify closer than the 1000....

213272604_Flo1.thumb.jpg.25f0c6409f4d2551a2e447f1d1dacf04.jpg

 

I don't think looking at the intensities on models runs this far out still is the best way to go. I still think trends and patterns are the best thing we can see (not simply hugging each run due to the window wiper effect), and everything thus far still signals a SC/NC hit. 

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9 minutes ago, Seth.P said:

I don't think looking at the intensities on models runs this far out still is the best way to go. I still think trends and patterns are the best thing we can see (not simply hugging each run due to the window wiper effect), and everything thus far still signals a SC/NC hit. 

I agree and when I say northern runs I mean GFS/ICON etc into NC versus Euro/Ukie into central SC.... but the general "stronger means more poleward" rule doesn't always apply and this is a bit of a different setup for a typical SC/NC threat.

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I agree and when I say northern runs I mean GFS/ICON etc into NC versus Euro/Ukie into central SC.... but the general "stronger means more poleward" rule doesn't always apply and this is a bit of a different setup for a typical SC/NC threat.

The stronger=north rule refers to the propensity for higher cloud tops to be impinged upon by the westerlies faster, however we have an uber ridge building in, so what is there to tug those higher cloud tops initially??

Don't buy that.

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37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The stronger=north rule refers to the propensity for higher cloud tops to be impinged upon by the westerlies faster, however we have an uber ridge building in, so what is there to tug those higher cloud tops initially??

Don't buy that.

As you alluded to, the predominant factor that affects hurricane translation is the strength and size/envelope of the Bermuda High or Atlantic Ridge of high pressure.  Thus, the eventual movement ever more  polewards will be dictated by where and when Florence can exploit any weakness in said atmospheric feature.   

Currently, I'm still favoring a quicker turn towards a more northerly component closer to the US coast...as noted above.  Your current prediction is very close to my own, but just a little further south with a more delayed poleward heading.  Anywhere from Georgia to a close brush with the NC Outer Banks are still very much on the table, at this time (edit: IMHO).

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47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This run actually changed pretty significantly....this is full on Hugo on this run, well sw of 12z....never recurves, either....rots over upstate NC, as opposing to shooting off of the outer banks. 

The 00Z is almost a carbon copy of the 12Z actually, maybe you looked at the wrong run...the difference of landfall locations from 12Z to 00Z is basically zero.

00Z

E1.thumb.png.4ba87f99215fa3c2e57fa41436a8890c.png

12Z

E2.thumb.png.be1764c827773c719e95adc534a7a703.png

 

 

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Seems like 30N/70W is a benchmark of sorts.  If it passes below that, it's going to be tough to avoid landfall since we aren't looking at a stall well off the coast.

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27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Seems like 30N/70W is a benchmark of sorts.  If it passes below that, it's going to be tough to avoid landfall since we aren't looking at a stall well off the coast.

Yeah seems that way, once she crosses 75W she will have to go east again to miss Hatteras.....seems more and more likely that somewhere is going to feel direct impact from Flo......seems that at best it would be a near miss just east of Hatteras at this point unless the models really have this ridge wrong.....which seems unlikely in this range

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Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

Although Florence remains a sheared tropical cyclone, satellite
imagery during the past 6 h also indicates that the shear has
started to abate somewhat, which has allowed the dense cirrus
canopy to build back over the previously exposed low-level
circulation center. Furthermore, deep convection with overshooting
cloud tops near -80C and an abundance of lightning activity have
developed very close to the center. Based on these data along with
Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, the
initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 265/8 kt. The mid-latitude flow
across CONUS and the northern Atlantic is forecast to flatten out
and become more zonal over the next 48 h or so, resulting in the
development of a narrow east-west oriented ridge along 35/36N
latitude.  This large-scale feature is expected to steer Florence
in a general westward direction during that time. By days 3-5,
however, the flow across the central and western U.S. is forecast
to buckle and become more meridional as a  deep mid-/upper-level
trough over the northeast Pacific pushes inland over the western
U.S., causing downstream ridging over the northeastern U.S. and
northwestern Atlantic. The global models agree on this general
change in the synoptic-scale flow pattern, but they differ
noticeably on where a downstream mid-/upper-level high pressure cell
takes up residence over the Atlantic either to the northwest or
northeast of Bermuda. The farther west/east the high develops will
determine how far west/east Florence will eventually move and
possibly affect the U.S. east coast beyond the 5-day forecast
period. The new official forecast track is close to the previous
advisory track through 48 h, and then was nudged a little to the
left or west of the previous track, which is close to the consensus
model TVCN and is north of the corrected-consensus models FSSE and
HCCA since the bulk of the NHC model guidance lies north of those
latter two models.

The upper-level environment is expected to improve to significantly
during the next 12 h and beyond with the current 20 kt of
southwesterly shear forecast to give way to shear of less than 10
kt. By 72 h and beyond, light shear from the southeast and east
along with the development of strong upper-level outflow jets to
the north of Florence is expected to create an environment that
favors significant and possibly even rapid strengthening. The new
NHC intensity forecast has been increased over the previous advisory
in anticipation of these very favorable dynamical conditions
developing, and now shows Florence becoming a hurricane by Sunday
and a major hurricane in 3 days, followed by additional
strengthening over the very warm Atlantic waters of at least 29 deg
C that are about 2 deg C above normal right now. The consensus
models IVCN and HCCA were closely followed, which are a little
below the FSSE model.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are
affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S.
East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased.  However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts.  Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 24.5N  54.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 24.6N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 24.6N  56.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 24.6N  57.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 24.9N  59.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 26.0N  64.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 28.0N  70.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 30.9N  75.8W  125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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58 minutes ago, yoda said:

5am advisory has Florence at 145mph Day 5

Yeah that's no bueno......big time impact coming for somewhere in the Carolinas unless that ridge turns out weaker than modeled.....

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9 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

GFS is a whiff......maybe landfalls over Hatteras before turning ENE...the ICON has also moved to a miss barely off Hatteras the last few runs.....

The slow movement late in the track is something that seems to be becoming a very common trait of a lot of these runs, though - even if the position is different. 

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I have to agree with you, much more so than previous run it seems.

This thing has s long way to go before it’s even remotely resolved. As Snow 88 said a few posts back....not even close to knowing the real outcome yet.... 

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also its my understanding if A Hurricane comes in strong say a Cat 4 or Cat 5 isn't it usually steered pole ward / North ?  If this is the case and she's heading towards the coast strong isn't the rule of thumb " she will hook North " just a matter of when ?

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While the media hype has already begun and likely to get even worse today, it’s clear based on the GFS/Euro ensembles, and even the 6z OP GFS that the OTS option is still on the table. It’s still too early to be calling this a slam dunk regarding landfall. However, I feel more confident based on model agreement on intensity being cat 3 or higher by day 5. The forecast environment seems to be unanimously favorable for strengthening, or at least maintaining high intensity.

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The way the 6z GFS model has it blowing up is amazing . Is it possible that the GFS over the other models have the WAR ending and this thing is going to explode up the coast ? 

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The stronger=north rule refers to the propensity for higher cloud tops to be impinged upon by the westerlies faster, however we have an uber ridge building in, so what is there to tug those higher cloud tops initially??

Don't buy that.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/the-beta-effect.html

Also, the flow up higher is a bit more southerly on most runs, hence a stronger/taller vortex would feel this slight difference.

 

I want to stress that none of these effects are terribly strong, but at 5 to 6 days out, these differences are nevertheless important to track details down the road.

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4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Jeeze, where did Florence go in the last few frames?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

It's a bit deceptive. This is actually a better organized cyclone than just 12 hours ago. The mid level center has quickly realigned with the surface center. Last night's big convective burst has faded and some dry air has wrapped in as that banding structure realigned and entrained it in. It'll probably have to fight off that dry air for part of today, but it's nothing severe. With shear continuing to relax, I would expect this thing to start taking off either later today or tonight.

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There is a reason why EVERY hurricane that has been in Florences current position has not EVER hit the coast . Theres a first time for everything I guess but maybe that high to the North is overstated ? IMO Florence will turn North the others for the past half century ALL have .

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6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

There is a reason why EVERY hurricane that has been in Florences current position has not EVER hit the coast . Theres a first time for everything I guess but maybe that high to the North is overstated ? IMO Florence will turn North the others for the past half century ALL have .

Those maps showing no storm within x distance of Florence's current position that are being shared like wildfire just use a single point for their comparison. The ridge is anomalous. Florence isn't already moving NW like the vast majority of those were.

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