Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Searching for Fall


Isopycnic
 Share

Recommended Posts

16 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I was looking at a listing of GSP 's top five warmest for each month, and it shows what many of us have been experiencing and referencing of late; an alarming number of record and near record warm months just in the last few years. Going back to 2010, there have been 105 months, not counting this Oct. 

The number 1 and 3 warmest Februaries on record, 2017 and 2018

The number 1 and 4 Marches, 2012 and 2016

The number 1 April 2017

The number 4 May, 2018

The number 2 June, 2010

The number 3, 4, and 5 July s, 2016, 2011, 2010

The number 3 and 5 Augusta, 2011 and 2016

The number 2 and 4 Septembers, 2018 and 2016

The number 5 October, 2016

And the number 1 December, 2015.

That is 16 of our last 105 months have been an all-time top five warmest for that particular month (with 4 having been the warmest ever)! Even the previous decade, the 2000s, which was a warm decade only had 7 total, and that was a lot.

By contrast, we have only had 1 top 5 coldest since 2010, that was our number 5 December 2010. And only one other going back to 2000; number 3 December, 2000. 

Disturbing trends!

 

Exactly! Sure it snows. It still gets extremely cold. And those events are usually all anyone remembers. They forget that 2/3rds of the same winter was breaking heat records. The trend is undeniable and that's up and up!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Exactly! Sure it snows. It still gets extremely cold. And those events are usually all anyone remembers. They forget that 2/3rds of the same winter was breaking heat records. The trend is undeniable and that's up and up!

GSP has not recorded a single day below average since 8/26. CLT and AVL, since 8/25.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Last year I went the last weekend of Octoberfest in Helen , GA (28th or 29th?) it was sooooo cold!! Think the temp was around 37 all afternoon, mostly cloudy , and flurries from time to time, it was absolutely amazing, I will remember it forever! Winds were also gusting to 30+ MPH!! The rest of the winter absolutely sucked IMBY! Outside of the Jan cold snap! I’d rather hold off on the cold as long as possible, so we don’t end up hunting the reload that never happens (last half of Jan/All of Feb) last year! Or comes in March/April, when it’s useless for most! This winter will be good, I can tell by the size of the nuts!

I'm going this weekend and it's going to be like 85. Ideal fest temp is about 65, IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, DopplerWx said:

thinking the cold front showing around the 15th may be legit, will be one heck of a shock to most when/if we go from 80s and humidity to highs in the upper 50s and lows in the 40s!

I'm hoping it is. But the indices are still not favorable. PNA goes strongly negative and then attempts to get back to neutral. The AO averages positive, and the NAO continues it's 4 month positive run.

But, the pattern waves are shorter this time of year. We can still get cool shots with an unfavorable pattern. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I'm hoping it is. But the indices are still not favorable. PNA goes strongly negative and then attempts to get back to neutral. The AO averages positive, and the NAO continues it's 4 month positive run.

But, the pattern waves are shorter this time of year. We can still get cool shots with an unfavorable pattern. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

GFS holding onto the cold front next weekend followed by a period of highs in the 50's low 60's and low well into the 40's.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

GFS holding onto the cold front next weekend followed by a period of highs in the 50's low 60's and low well into the 40's.....

Yep, looks good. It even has dew points in the 20s for many; which if is the case, could be the first chance of frost for some.

Again, lets get this within 7 days.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

I'd be curious out of those 105 months how many were actually below normal? I'm guessing not many.

This is a worldwide trend.

For 400 Months in a Row, the Earth Has Been Warmer Than 20th Century Average

 If you assume the odds of a particular month being warmer than average are 50 percent — what you’d expect in a stable climate — then the odds of 400 warm months in a row would be approximately one in 1 x 10^120. The name for such a number is a “novemtrigintillion” — a value bigger than the number of atoms that exist in a trillion universes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/april-was-400th-consecutive-month-world-warmer-than-20th-century

https://grist.org/article/for-400-months-in-a-row-our-planet-has-been-unusually-hot/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

I'd be curious out of those 105 months how many were actually below normal? I'm guessing not many.

Ok, believe it or not I actually tried to find the answer! NWS only goes back 5 years, or 60 months, and I don't know where to go to get farther back. I tried wunderground, but I every time I try to bring up the history for GSP it goes over to some site in Peru...?

anyway, for the past 60 months - back though Oct of 2013, there have actually been 19 that were below normal - actually more than I would have thought. But still, less than a third. One was exactly normal, and the rest were above. 

These are the months below for each year since then

 

2013 - Nov

2014 - Jan, Mar, July, Aug, Nov

2015 - Jan, Feb, Oct

2016 - Jan, Feb, May

2017 - June, Aug

2018 - Jan, Mar, April, July, Aug

The top 3 greatest departures below were as follows: 1. Jan 14 (-6.1), 2. Nov 14 (-4.7), 3. Jan 18 (-4.1)

Most of the rest were less than 2 below normal.

The three greatest positive departures were as follows: 1. Dec 15 (+11.2), 2. Feb 17 (+8.2), 3. Feb 18 (+7.9), nearly twice the greatest cold departures. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jburns said:

This is a worldwide trend.

For 400 Months in a Row, the Earth Has Been Warmer Than 20th Century Average

 If you assume the odds of a particular month being warmer than average are 50 percent — what you’d expect in a stable climate — then the odds of 400 warm months in a row would be approximately one in 1 x 10^120. The name for such a number is a “novemtrigintillion” — a value bigger than the number of atoms that exist in a trillion universes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/april-was-400th-consecutive-month-world-warmer-than-20th-century

https://grist.org/article/for-400-months-in-a-row-our-planet-has-been-unusually-hot/

Yeah, I've heard that before and its a mind boggling streak. I looked it up and Dec 1984 was the last month. Hmm, wonder if it had any effect on Jan 85. Anything happen that month of interest?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Ok, believe it or not I actually tried to find the answer! NWS only goes back 5 years, or 60 months, and I don't know where to go to get farther back. I tried wunderground, but I every time I try to bring up the history for GSP it goes over to some site in Peru...?

anyway, for the past 60 months - back though Oct of 2013, there have actually been 19 that were below normal - actually more than I would have thought. But still, less than a third. One was exactly normal, and the rest were above. 

These are the months below for each year since then

 

2013 - Nov

2014 - Jan, Mar, July, Aug, Nov

2015 - Jan, Feb, Oct

2016 - Jan, Feb, May

2017 - June, Aug

2018 - Jan, Mar, April, July, Aug

The top 3 greatest departures below were as follows: 1. Jan 14 (-6.1), 2. Nov 14 (-4.7), 3. Jan 18 (-4.1)

Most of the rest were less than 2 below normal.

The three greatest positive departures were as follows: 1. Dec 15 (+11.2), 2. Feb 17 (+8.2), 3. Feb 18 (+7.9), nearly twice the greatest cold departures. 

Interesting to see 4 of the last 5 Januaries below normal. Decembers have absolutely torched lately and Feb is hit or miss. Definitely a disturbing trend the data shows. Winters definitely starting late every year and most ending early too. Most of the se except one or two locations did very well on snow last year. But it was really only the first two weeks of Dec and the first two in Jan and then winter vanished. That's why I'm very skeptical of the forecasts of below average for the winter as a whole this year. Unless blocking finally decides to appear the 4 weeks of winter we do get better be record breaking to erase the other 8 weeks of warmth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/4/2018 at 9:39 PM, jburns said:

This is a worldwide trend.

For 400 Months in a Row, the Earth Has Been Warmer Than 20th Century Average

 If you assume the odds of a particular month being warmer than average are 50 percent — what you’d expect in a stable climate — then the odds of 400 warm months in a row would be approximately one in 1 x 10^120. The name for such a number is a “novemtrigintillion” — a value bigger than the number of atoms that exist in a trillion universes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/april-was-400th-consecutive-month-world-warmer-than-20th-century

https://grist.org/article/for-400-months-in-a-row-our-planet-has-been-unusually-hot/

Living in Macon, Georgia, where my September average was two degrees higher than my July average, I wouldn't know it but, The University of Alabama-Huntsville, Global Temperature Update reports that this past September was the coolest September in the past 10 years.  https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DopplerWx said:

looks like some amazing fall weather coming in behind michael friday, lows in the low 50s thru the weekend!  FINALLY some crisp nights!

That is what I am seeing too. Going to be real nice. High's low to mid 70's, lows in the low to mid 50's. Dew points will be especially nice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok, guess it's the fall wennie in me but I find that I am actually a little giddy about tomorrow night. I seriously have been thinking about the cool down all day with anticipation, kinda like when you have something really cool planned that you can't wait till it gets here. Ok, part if it is that my a/c went out a couple weeks ago and with the heat and humidity, the windows have provided little relief at night. But beyond that, it will be awesome just to have some comfortable, NORMAL weather! Most on the board have not seen temps below 60 since the late August front, even places like Asheville. Low 50s is going to feel so awesome!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...