Rtd208 Posted September 27, 2018 Author Share Posted September 27, 2018 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Through September 26, New York City (Central Park) has had a monthly mean temperature of 71.8°. That is tied for the 18th warmest figure through September 26. Applying sensitivity analysis to the guidance, there is now an implied 91% probability that September will have a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above (estimated range: 70.6°-71.2°). That will be consistent with the observed increased frequency of such warmth in September amidst a continuing steady increase in New York City’s average temperature. At the same time, another rainstorm will move into the waterlogged region this evening. As a result, 2018 will likely move up to rank among the 50 wettest years on record with three months to go. To date, the Middle Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast have seen excessive rains. Across North Carolina and parts of Virginia, the amounts were enhanced by the historic rainfall associated with Hurricane Florence. Some figures through September 26 for select cities with the start of their climate record in parentheses: Allentown: 46.50” 35th wettest Asheville (1869): 54.99” 11th wettest Baltimore (1871): 53.45” 10th wettest Cape Hatteras (1893): 64.08” 21st wettest Harrisburg (1888): 49.71” 9th wettest Oakland (1 SE), MD (1893): 54.99” 13th wettest Pittsburgh (1871): 44.55” 10th wettest Richmond (1887): 48.21” 36th wettest Roanoke (1912): 45.18” 28th wettest Scranton (1901): 45.67” 6th wettest Washington, DC (1871): 48.93” 23rd wettest Wilmington (1871): 86.50” wettest on record (old record: 83.65”, 1877) Finally, it does appear that the synoptic pattern will evolve toward one in which rainfall will generally be below normal during the October 1-10 period. What does the temp look like for Oct for our region in general? To my untrained eye, it looks to be slightly AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: What does the temp look like for Oct for our region in general? To my untrained eye, it looks to be slightly AN. The guidance has been trending toward somewhat above normal (more persistent above normal height anomalies extending from the western Atlantic across the East). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 31 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Wow no more waiting 12 hrs for euro updates...cool. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Another tropical 2.00"+ PWAT surge with the heavy rains for Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 1 hour ago, doncat said: Wow no more waiting 12 hrs for euro updates...cool. Yeah this is pretty awesome. Speaking of awesome what a great early fall day! My favorite of all types of fair weather! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 12z NAM is even wetter and more impressive overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: This is also going to help fill in that long evening model hole between the 18z GFS/RGEM at 4:30/5:00 and 00z NAM at 9:30/10:00 (I'm ignoring the 21z SREFs in that because LOL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: This is also going to help fill in that long evening model hole between the 18z GFS/RGEM at 4:30/5:00 and 00z NAM at 9:30/10:00 (I'm ignoring the 21z SREFs in that because LOL). Anyone have a start date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 12z GFS only has 80s from Monday - Wednesday next week, and except for Wednesday is low 80s (which means upper 70s when you factor in GFS warm bias). Looks pretty chilly after that until a ridge pops back up in the super long range. On a related note: is anyone concerned about the GFS bias impacting its forecasts this winter? I don't remember the warm bias being bad last winter but it's been over the top consistently through the summer (and today, with 79 forecast at NYC when its not getting out of the low 70s). The 850 temp map might be more useful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 44 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: 12z GFS only has 80s from Monday - Wednesday next week, and except for Wednesday is low 80s (which means upper 70s when you factor in GFS warm bias). Looks pretty chilly after that until a ridge pops back up in the super long range. On a related note: is anyone concerned about the GFS bias impacting its forecasts this winter? I don't remember the warm bias being bad last winter but it's been over the top consistently through the summer (and today, with 79 forecast at NYC when its not getting out of the low 70s). The 850 temp map might be more useful. Yes the GFS has been bad with its 2m temps since it's upgrade last year...And it was just as bad last winter. Not sure when the new GFS will take over but it can't come soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 27, 2018 Author Share Posted September 27, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 27, 2018 Author Share Posted September 27, 2018 Picked up 0.10" of rain for the day yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 27, 2018 Author Share Posted September 27, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Fast moving system on the NAM-out of here b/w 7-9 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 27, 2018 Author Share Posted September 27, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 And it's raining again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, gravitylover said: And it's raining again... Did you not see the forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 Think he's being sarcastic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Did you not see the forecast? Obs thread right? That's called an observation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 28, 2018 Author Share Posted September 28, 2018 Currently pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 28, 2018 Author Share Posted September 28, 2018 Absolute deluge here. Very heavy rain. Flood Warning in effect for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 Remainder of Sept. averaging 65degs., or about +3degs. Month to date is +3.1[71.6]. Should end Sept. at +3.0[70.9]. All 8 days averaging 70degs., or about 8degs. AN. The first 5 days of Oct. averaging 73degs., or about 11degs. AN. RWTT still insists no BN period coming till second week of Nov. Next 90 days continues AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 run of the mill rains here, pretty sure the bronx river is flooded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Remainder of Sept. averaging 65degs., or about +3degs. Month to date is +3.1[71.6]. Should end Sept. at +3.0[70.9]. All 8 days averaging 70degs., or about 8degs. AN. The first 5 days of Oct. averaging 73degs., or about 11degs. AN. RWTT still insists no BN period coming till second week of Nov. Next 90 days continues AN. Welcome to the new norm, nonstop torch months. Should easily continue well into the winter. Doesn't even faze me anymore, it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 The flash flood warning for SI, BK, Queens and Nassau expires in a few minutes. Terrible commute here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: The flash flood warning for SI, BK, Queens and Nassau expires in a few minutes. Terrible commute here. 1.47" so far at Wantagh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 And it’s rain again... .91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 1.01” here. 6.79” for the month so far, wettest month this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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