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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Even better, try to drive through in a low vehicle. Definitely one of the advantages of driving a truck. But I also know the water depth I’m driving through in my neighborhood. (Coastal flooding prone) 

dumping again on the uws.  

Getting the heaviest downpour of the day here in SW Suffolk now.

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Raining again here....0.52” and counting. Heaviest rains should slide just to the west of me.

Today may be the darkest day of the year at my station with just 0.2 “sunshine hours” (>120 w/m2 solar radiation) recorded, I have to double check, but I’m like 95% sure it is.

Edit: Nope, March 21st was the darkest with no “sunshine hours” recorded, today is looking like a #2 or #3.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1500
< Previous MD
MD 1500 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 1500
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0438 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of NJ into Long Island and southern
   Connecticut

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252138Z - 252345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasionally weakly rotating storms are expected over the
   next few hours. Overall severe threat is very low.

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, currently anchored along a warm
   front, have occasionally showed transient, weak low to mid-level
   rotation across portions of central/eastern New Jersey into the NYC
   area and far southern Connecticut. Though lapse rates are quite poor
   throughout the troposphere (i.e 5-5.5 C/km), sfc-850 mb moisture is
   quite deep, contributing to MLCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg along/south of
   the front. While effective bulk shear values are rather modest given
   the marginally unstable atmosphere (30-40 knots across the
   discussion area), favorable low-level directional shear remains in
   place, with effective SRH values exceeding 250 m2/s2 over Long
   Island, with nearly 350 m2/s2 0-3km SRH noted by recent KOKX WSR-88D
   VWP data. Low-level flow is slightly more veered closer to PHL, with
   latest KDIX VWP data suggesting both 0-3km and 0-1km SRH exceeding
   150 m2/s2. 

   The favorable low-level shear, combined with the moist/marginally
   buoyant airmass, may promote semi-discrete storms in the area to
   continue weakly rotating on an occasional basis, particularly across
   portions of Long Island and southern Connnecticut, where storms may
   more favorably traverse the warm front and ingest available
   low-level streamwise vorticity. Still, given the marginally buoyant
   airmass and expected lackluster potential for stronger rotation, the
   severe threat appears quite low.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/25/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI..
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Warned.

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
NYC103-260000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0046.180925T2235Z-180926T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
635 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2018

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Western Suffolk County in southeastern New York...

* Until 800 PM EDT.

* At 635 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned
  area. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Islip, Brentwood, Commack, Huntington Station, Centereach, Deer
  Park, Lindenhurst, Hauppauge, Ronkonkoma, Huntington, Stony Brook,
  Babylon, Port Jefferson, Northport and Holbrook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 4094 7347 4091 7341 4095 7338 4091 7322
      4094 7316 4097 7316 4097 7304 4071 7307
      4069 7315 4070 7323 4066 7336 4065 7337
      4065 7321 4067 7321 4067 7308 4066 7308
      4060 7342

$$

MALOIT
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2.06” and counting, rates over 3” per hour.

This is the most rain I’ve received in a single day since the 13 inch event in August 2014, which I didn’t even have a rain gauge for. This is also my first time passing the 2 inch mark with a rain gauge of any kind, it only took 4 years, how pathetic.

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7 minutes ago, Cfa said:

2.06” and counting, rates over 3” per hour.

This is the most rain I’ve received in a single day since the 13 inch event in August 2014, which I didn’t even have a rain gauge for. This is also my first time passing the 2 inch mark with a rain gauge of any kind, it only took 4 years, how pathetic.

3.14" and still pouring, crazy flooding. 

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