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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 minute ago, Ace said:

Day 3 Slight from SPC...impressive. Lapse rates suck though.

There's always something missing in this region when it comes to big severe outbreaks, usually either shear or lapse rates. Most of the best storms I can remember, whether here or in Allentown, have come on days which weren't supposed to have significant outbreaks.

The 3km NAM has some discrete cells popping front of the squall line Wednesday evening, but under its current timing the front would come through here during the early morning hours of Thursday, which could limit the severe potential.

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8 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

There's always something missing in this region when it comes to big severe outbreaks, usually either shear or lapse rates. Most of the best storms I can remember, whether here or in Allentown, have come on days which weren't supposed to have significant outbreaks.

The 3km NAM has some discrete cells popping front of the squall line Wednesday evening, but under its current timing the front would come through here during the early morning hours of Thursday, which could limit the severe potential.

We do the best in early morning warm frontal passages. Decent localized instability combined with a local enhancement of shear. 

We did have a nice afternoon squall line earlier this year when we also had an EML to work with.

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Been a fair while since it was this windy (and it's not even that windy).  I think that SW flow event in early August with the devastating E PA rains was the last time it was this windy.  I mean mostly it's been a slog of still, humid air.  The change of pace is refreshing but abrupt.

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7 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Been a fair while since it was this windy (and it's not even that windy).  I think that SW flow event in early August with the devastating E PA rains was the last time it was this windy.  I mean mostly it's been a slog of still, humid air.  The change of pace is refreshing but abrupt.

Out here on the island it was during the storm earlier this month. I will agree it was pretty windy in the city earlier today 

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Through 8:10 am, New York City’s Central Park had picked up 0.27” rain. That brings 2018’s total precipitation to 45.21”, which ranks as New York City’s 64th highest figure on record.

Implied probabilities of annual precipitation:

50” or above:
Historic data: 96%
1971-2017 data: 96%

60” or above:
Historic data: 20%
1971-2017 data: 39%

Lowest 9/26-12/31 precipitation: 4.62”, 2001
Highest 9/26-12/31 precipitation: 27.72”, 1983

 

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7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'm hoping that we can finally string together a dry week with much more sun after today. The constant cloudiness is really starting to weigh on people I have noticed. No wonder so many people are vitamin D deficient here haha!

Are you new to this area? Weather has been pretty typical so far this year.

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12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 8:10 am, New York City’s Central Park had picked up 0.27” rain. That brings 2018’s total precipitation to 45.21”, which ranks as New York City’s 64th highest figure on record.

Implied probabilities of annual precipitation:

50” or above:
Historic data: 96%
1971-2017 data: 96%

60” or above:
Historic data: 20%
1971-2017 data: 39%

Lowest 9/26-12/31 precipitation: 4.62”, 2001
Highest 9/26-12/31 precipitation: 27.72”, 1983

 

Don, I just ran the numbers and NYC set an impressive long term record for measurable precipitation. Today was the 117th day this year with measurable precipitation at NYC through 9-25.  The record WAR pattern and tropical moisture pushed NYC over the top.

Most days with measurable precipitation in NYC 1-1 through  9-25

#1...117 days....2018

#2...113 days....1950

#3...110 days....1916

#4...109 days....2003...1996

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1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

I am quite sure it’s been far cloudier than average this month. Some stat I saw showing a cloudy day 70% of time when observed at noon for the month thus far. Normal was around 25% I believe.

September can often be a dry clear month especially if there is no tropical activity.  This year we have had alot of onshore flow days bringing alot of cloud cover

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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Don, I just ran the numbers and NYC set an impressive long term record for measurable precipitation. Today was the 117th day this year with measurable precipitation at NYC through 9-25.  The record WAR pattern and tropical moisture pushed NYC over the top.

Most days with measurable precipitation in NYC 1-1 through  9-25

#1...117 days....2018

#2...113 days....1950

#3...110 days....1916

#4...109 days....2003...1996

Yeah I was checking my totals last night also...122 days  so far with measurable precip.

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32 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I am quite sure it’s been far cloudier than average this month. Some stat I saw showing a cloudy day 70% of time when observed at noon for the month thus far. Normal was around 25% I believe.

So far, we are running more than twice the normal amount of cloudiness for September. It goes along with the high dew points and record minimum temperature warmth.

network-NY_ASOS--zstation-LGA--hour-12--year-2018--month-9--dpi-100.png.767ad376b6b45f43d1ed83dc09c0f144.png

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13 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

First flakes next week? gUH1Gw8.png

Basically follows the 2,000’ contour. It would be early but not unheard of in the Adirondacks, greens and whites. 

.50” so far in wantagh. Looks like from here out most of the precip is north and west which follows some of the modeling 

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