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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Absolute perfect beach day. If I could find forkys post form a week ago saying the ridge would squash Florence to south and we would have AN temps I’d bump it. 

Blue sky, light breeze, perfect air and water temp. September really is he unsung hero of beach weather. Everyone also thinks you can’t go to the beach anymore after Labor Day so there are no crowds. Good thing too since the beach is chewed up from Florence. 

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30 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Absolute perfect beach day. If I could find forkys post form a week ago saying the ridge would squash Florence to south and we would have AN temps I’d bump it. 

Blue sky, light breeze, perfect air and water temp. September really is he unsung hero of beach weather. Everyone also thinks you can’t go to the beach anymore after Labor Day so there are no crowds. Good thing too since the beach is chewed up from Florence. 

Absolutely perfect beach day at Jones beach! Full sunshine with the now onshore flow keeping all the clouds inland. Which beach are you at? Plenty of sand here as always

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13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Absolutely perfect beach day at Jones beach! Full sunshine with the now onshore flow keeping all the clouds inland. Which beach are you at? Plenty of sand here as always

How are the waves , too big to ride ?  Too rough ? 

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21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Absolutely perfect beach day at Jones beach! Full sunshine with the now onshore flow keeping all the clouds inland. Which beach are you at? Plenty of sand here as always

Tobay. East end. Always gets chewed up down this side. Tunnel had a bit of water in it as usual. Surf is still up but subsiding. Selfishly I was hoping for those GFS solutions that kept the stall just off the outer banks. Would have thrown huge surf up this way for days. 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

How are the waves , too big to ride ?  Too rough ? 

The biggest surf was Thursday morning and it has been gradually subsiding since. The wave faces were in the 12 foot range thrusday about 8-10 yesterday and 4-5 today. I was out for hours each day, but I have surfed much bigger waves in Hawaii and have 25 years experience. Definitly not for beginners and yesterday was especially dangerous as the swell was directly south and led to so pretty brutal rip currents. 

Just now we had a pretty serious rescue at Jones beach as a swimmer got caught in rip. The guy would have certainly drowned if we (life guards) weren’t still on duty. 

It’s currently clouded up here and what had been a spectacular September beach day has ended.

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20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The biggest surf was Thursday morning and it has been gradually subsiding since. The wave faces were in the 12 foot range thrusday about 8-10 yesterday and 4-5 today. I was out for hours each day, but I have surfed much bigger waves in Hawaii and have 25 years experience. Definitly not for beginners and yesterday was especially dangerous as the swell was directly south and led to so pretty brutal rip currents. 

Just now we had a pretty serious rescue at Jones beach as a swimmer got caught in rip. The guy would have certainly drowned if we (life guards) weren’t still on duty. 

It’s currently clouded up here and what had been a spectacular September beach day has ended.

Thanks, much appreciated . 

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46 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The biggest surf was Thursday morning and it has been gradually subsiding since. The wave faces were in the 12 foot range thrusday about 8-10 yesterday and 4-5 today. I was out for hours each day, but I have surfed much bigger waves in Hawaii and have 25 years experience. Definitly not for beginners and yesterday was especially dangerous as the swell was directly south and led to so pretty brutal rip currents. 

Just now we had a pretty serious rescue at Jones beach as a swimmer got caught in rip. The guy would have certainly drowned if we (life guards) weren’t still on duty. 

It’s currently clouded up here and what had been a spectacular September beach day has ended.

Suns back out. Tomorrow should be another great one too. 

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5 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Suns back out. Tomorrow should be another great one too. 

Funny, just came back out here. But then again I’m only 3 miles to your west. Today has major erosion issues. A new inlet almost formed during sandy between today and Gilgo where there had been one historically. Robert Moses had 3 inlets filled to create ocean parkway. One at zacks bay one there and one between gilgo and cedar beach. The entire island surrounding the parkway was raised to 14’.

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29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Funny, just came back out here. But then again I’m only 3 miles to your west. Today has major erosion issues. A new inlet almost formed during sandy between today and Gilgo where there had been one historically. Robert Moses had 3 inlets filled to create ocean parkway. One at zacks bay one there and one between gilgo and cedar beach. The entire island surrounding the parkway was raised to 14’.

I have a bunch of pictures of thre beach at Tobay and gilgo a couple weeks after sandy. It was wild.

acually even today we walked towards gilgo and the West gilgo area took a fairly big hit just from Florence. Almost in the same spot that almost washed over during the march 2010 nor easter.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Funny, just came back out here. But then again I’m only 3 miles to your west. Today has major erosion issues. A new inlet almost formed during sandy between today and Gilgo where there had been one historically. Robert Moses had 3 inlets filled to create ocean parkway. One at zacks bay one there and one between gilgo and cedar beach. The entire island surrounding the parkway was raised to 14’.

I didn't know that. Are there before and after pictures somewhere?

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Next 8 days averaging 73degs., or 7degs. AN.

Month to date is +2.4[73.1].    Should be +4.0[73.1] by the 24th.

To make the TopTen, we need to end at least 71.5.

The RWWT does have it near normal between 9/21-9/26.   But this does not last, and the next 30 days and the next 90 days are overall still +2 to +3.

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15 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Suns back out. Tomorrow should be another great one too. 

..yesterday was a great beach day...went to Hot Dog beach in east quoque..great sandbar there and the surfers 

were everywhere..with the off shore break it was easy to get in and out of the water..water was warm and clean..

looking forward to today..should be a great one as we wrap up summer 2018.

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14 hours ago, Cfa said:

^^^Let’s lock that pattern in, permanently.

You know the drill. The warm water off the East Coast has been where the ridge sets up early in the winter. Later in the season, the warmer pool near Alaska gives the -EPO blocking for snowstorms.

We continue with  warm pools off the East Coast and near Alaska. So the WAR keeps building for warmer than normal temperatures this month. 

sstanom0.png.030eee06ec3813313165dd036d2c6b8f.png

 

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That 9/7 - 9/14 period (clouds, Tropics, onshore flow) and highlighted by the  9/8-9/10 chill prevented a challenge to 2015 monthly Sep temps.   We'll see if the ridge overperforms again once we get rid of Florence remains

 

9/7 - 9/14 (10 days of clouds and onshore flow

EWR:
9/7:  79/71 (+4)
9/8: 72/59 (-4)
9/9: 61/56 (-12)
9/10: 63/55 (-11)
9/11:  76/58 (-3)
9/12:  79/71 (+5)
9/13:  77/70 (+5)
9/14:  76/69 (+4)
9/15: 81/66 (+5)

LGA:

9/7:  77/71 (+2)    
9/8:  73/63 (-4)     
9/9:  66/59 (-9)     
9/10:  67/57 (-9)     
9/11:  75/64 (-1)     
9/12:  78/72 (+4)     
9/13:  77/70 (+4)     
9/14:  77/70 (+4)   
9/15:  82/69 (+6)  
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