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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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39 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

I think it has to do with the dewpoint.  The higher the dewpoint, the harder it is to heat the air.  Prob the reason why you don't see 100 degrees that often in MIA or MCO

No it’s not that it’s the fact that warm air rises and spreads fast. And there’s plenty of real estate to spread. Sometimes our heatwaves happen because the air gets stagnant and gets blocked from escaping elsewhere. Blocking works during the summer and winter!

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9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not a fun day to be an ocean life guard as it’s one of the coldest days I have ever sat in the stand.  Some swell from Florence has arrived though fairly small owing to distance and decay. 

...yeah..its amazing how quickly the beach season comes to an end..this is one beach bum putting

an end to this season and look forward to the 'low sun angle period' coming up.

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They say patterns can be hard to break. Well this whole rain on the weekends pattern has been one of the most stubborn patterns I can ever remember. I am hoping that fall gives us some nicer weekends. And I swear to God if ANYONE says we could use some rain after a dry week or two... After all those fall leaves are supposed to make a nice crunching sound when you step on them, not turn to a soggy mess! 

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Through 8 am this morning, New York City has received 42.90" precipitation. That ranks 84th highest in terms of annual precipitation. Farther south, Baltimore's precipitation to date ranks 32nd and Washington, DC's ranks 35th. Both Baltimore and Washington, DC could be in a position to challenge their annual record should they receive significant rainfall from Florence.
As for New York City, it appears very likely that the City will record its 33rd year on record with 50" or more precipitation in 2018. That would extend what has been a historically wet period that began in 1971.

Number of Years with 50” or more Precipitation:
1869-1970: 12; Return Time: 8.5 years
1971-2017: 20; Return Time: 2.4 years
Historic (1869-2017): 32; Return Time: 4.7 Years

Were September to see no additional precipitation, which is extremely unlikely, just 7.10" precipitation would be needed to reach 50.00" for the year.

During the 1869-2017 period, just 19 (13%) years saw < 7.10" precipitation in the October-December period. During the 1971-2017 period, only 2 (5%) years saw < 7.10" precipitation in the October-December period. In terms of statistical probabilities based on a normal distribution, the historic probability of < 7.10" October-December precipitation is approximately 16% and the 1971-2017 probability is just under 14%.

The last year with 50" or more precipitation was 2014 when yearly precipitation came to 53.79". Prior to that, 2011 saw 72.81" precipitation. New York City's record is 80.56", which was established in 1983.

 

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22 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris what was the reason we didn't get a true baking summer this year though even though the WAR was so strong?  Was it because of the developing el nino?  Next summer might be hotter than this one- summers after el ninos historically are.

I think it came down to the wind direction. The ridge axis expanded so far to the north, that the flow was more from the SE than normal for such a warm summer. That is why JFK had such high humidity and didn't finish in the top ten warmest of summers. Other stations where the SE flow didn't impact the summer heat potential as much finished in the top 10 warmest. It's why there was so much variance between the stations.

JJA 2018 summer temperature rankings:

LGA....#4  warmest on record

JFK....#15

ISP.....#5

BDR....#3

EWR...#13

HPN.....#8

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17 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not a fun day to be an ocean life guard as it’s one of the coldest days I have ever sat in the stand.  Some swell from Florence has arrived though fairly small owing to distance and decay. 

What is the current water temp and how quickly do you expect it to drop from this point onward? If it clears up I'd sure love to come down on Wednesday for a last beach day, I think the water is going to get all churned up and it just won't be as nice after Flo does whatever she chooses to do.

53 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

They say patterns can be hard to break. Well this whole rain on the weekends pattern has been one of the most stubborn patterns I can ever remember. I am hoping that fall gives us some nicer weekends. And I swear to God if ANYONE says we could use some rain after a dry week or two... After all those fall leaves are supposed to make a nice crunching sound when you step on them, not turn to a soggy mess! 

But they do start to decompose more quickly when they're wet so there's that... 

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2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

They say patterns can be hard to break. Well this whole rain on the weekends pattern has been one of the most stubborn patterns I can ever remember. I am hoping that fall gives us some nicer weekends. And I swear to God if ANYONE says we could use some rain after a dry week or two... After all those fall leaves are supposed to make a nice crunching sound when you step on them, not turn to a soggy mess! 

Lol agree - I think we have more than earned a dry few weeks at this point!

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 8 am this morning, New York City has received 42.90" precipitation. That ranks 84th highest in terms of annual precipitation. Farther south, Baltimore's precipitation to date ranks 32nd and Washington, DC's ranks 35th. Both Baltimore and Washington, DC could be in a position to challenge their annual record should they receive significant rainfall from Florence.
As for New York City, it appears very likely that the City will record its 33rd year on record with 50" or more precipitation in 2018. That would extend what has been a historically wet period that began in 1971.

Number of Years with 50” or more Precipitation:
1869-1970: 12; Return Time: 8.5 years
1971-2017: 20; Return Time: 2.4 years
Historic (1869-2017): 32; Return Time: 4.7 Years

Were September to see no additional precipitation, which is extremely unlikely, just 7.10" precipitation would be needed to reach 50.00" for the year.

During the 1869-2017 period, just 19 (13%) years saw < 7.10" precipitation in the October-December period. During the 1971-2017 period, only 2 (5%) years saw < 7.10" precipitation in the October-December period. In terms of statistical probabilities based on a normal distribution, the historic probability of < 7.10" October-December precipitation is approximately 16% and the 1971-2017 probability is just under 14%.

The last year with 50" or more precipitation was 2014 when yearly precipitation came to 53.79". Prior to that, 2011 saw 72.81" precipitation. New York City's record is 80.56", which was established in 1983.

 

Well, if anything, this should make for some vibrant Autumn colors.

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Some chinks in the cloud armor as some areas of sun poking through in SNJ and west of there.  Humid and warmer times return Tiue - Fri  - any clearing and we can see some more areas pushing 90  in the warmer spots, a;though the amount of clearing and breaks from showers and storms is limited.  Onshore flow through the week and this coming weekend.    

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Coastal flooding just made it to the moderate level here along the Great South Bay. The lowest streets have some flooding.

IMG_0240.PNG.f8c5d30ba5715912b004ef2d5b743ad7.PNG

 

Definitely moderate as the end of my street was flooded and only does so with moderate events. We lucked out with the timing of the biggest swells from Florence arriving later in the week. Had those swells arrived during a moderate coastal flood event there could have been serious erosion issues.

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