September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I think I can scratch ball lightning off of my weather bucket list. 

woah you saw that?! that would be amazing lol.  

 

about the rain gage thing let me know how it goes if you do get it cleaned, I have two digital rain gages that both stopped working so I was hoping there's a way to fix them.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I see Wantagh has picked up 1.48" so far. These 75+ dew points and 75+ SST's have really delivered for us this summer. We just had to put up with the dry streaks in early July and the last few weeks. 

But we still had near average rainfall here in during the summer didn't we?  I thought July and August each had 3-5" of monthly rainfall for us.  Not as great as the city and points west but not a drought either.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow, Boston was hotter than LGA, that's happened a few times this summer.  Is that because of less rainfall in eastern NE, Don?

Also, do you have the highs for JFK and NYC?

JFK was 89 and NYC was 93. It’s been drier up in New England and I am sure that contributed.

[doncat]

15 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I know, I thought about setting up my camera, but it’s been at least 4 years since I’ve last captured lightning, I don’t even remember how to do it lol.

I’m so pissed, it’s never given me an issue until today. I even poured a bottle of water in it and it registered nothing. I hope it’s just an obstruction, this thing is barely 6 months old.

Ya know spiders can get in there and prevent the tipper from moving with their webs...happened to me with my rain gage and anemometer.

[Cfa]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

woah you saw that?! that would be amazing lol.  

 

about the rain gage thing let me know how it goes if you do get it cleaned, I have two digital rain gages that both stopped working so I was hoping there's a way to fix them.

It was a small pink ball, encircled by a thin bolt, that randomly appeared a few feet off the ground 100-200 feet away. No thunder, it simply appeared and disappeared.

[Fantom X]

1.15" since 7:20pm start time. coming down nice- not much lightning though..

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

JFK was 89 and NYC was 93. It’s been drier up in New England and I am sure that contributed.

Thanks Don, looks like JFK stands a smaller chance of getting to double digit 90 degree days now since it fell just short, not that it matters with all the humidity. It will be interesting to see where Boston stands when the season is done with respect to number of 90 degree days.

It's weird to see both Boston and Providence with higher temps than NYC!

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But we still had near average rainfall here in during the summer didn't we?  I thought July and August each had 3-5" of monthly rainfall for us.  Not as great as the city and points west but not a drought either.

It was really focused between July 15th and August 15th. Places like North Merrick had some of the heaviest totals for Long Island.

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, doncat said:

Ya know spiders can get in there and prevent the tipper from moving with their webs...happened to me with my rain gage and anemometer.

Yup happens a lot.

1 minute ago, Fantom X said:

1.15" since 7:20pm start time. coming down nice- not much lightning though..

Only 0.40 here but tons of lightning 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Cfa said:

It was a small pink ball, encircled by a thin bolt, that randomly appeared a few feet off the ground 100-200 feet away. No thunder, it simply appeared and disappeared.

Wow that's amazing, I find the color especially interesting.  It lasted for a small fraction of a second?

[Cfa]

6 minutes ago, doncat said:

Ya know spiders can get in there and prevent the tipper from moving with their webs...happened to me with my rain gage and anemometer.

Thank you, that’s exactly what it was, the tipper was held in place by cobwebs, despite being full of water. I check periodically and I’d never seen anything other than pollen and dirt inside the gauge.

[cardinalland]

It’s not raining here in Manhattan but looking east the lightning is amazing. Like one every 5-10 seconds for a good while now.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Thank you, that’s exactly what it was, the tipper was held in place by cobwebs, despite being full of water. I check periodically and I’d never seen anything other than pollen and dirt inside the gauge.

and spiderwebs are surprisingly strong,  I guess this is something to look out for now.

[Cfa]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow that's amazing, I find the color especially interesting.  It lasted for a small fraction of a second?

Yeah, it lasted no longer than a blink, I’m glad my eyes caught it.

I guess it’s a good thing my PWS gave me problems, otherwise I wouldn’t have been outside.

[Rjay]

Had 1.12" here.  Wantagh had 1.70"

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Cfa said:

Yeah, it lasted no longer than a blink, I’m glad my eyes caught it.

I guess it’s a good thing my PWS gave me problems, otherwise I wouldn’t have been outside.

Yeah I wonder how many things we miss just because we let technology take care of things for us.  Now you have a memory to last a lifetime, ball lightning is so rare, I dont know of anyone who has seen it twice in their lives.

 

[Rjay]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah I wonder how many things we miss just because we let technology take care of things for us.  Now you have a memory to last a lifetime, ball lightning is so rare, I dont know of anyone who has seen it twice in their lives.

 

@Bozart knows all about ball lightning. 

Too bad he hasn't been on since 2017. 

[uncle W]

latest date for the first 50's for years with no 50's in August...since 1876...I could not find 1947-1948 which were possible contenders...so far none this year...

2016...9/17

1966...9/15

2015...9/14

1996...9/14

2014...9/13

1905...9/13

1933...9/11

1980...9/11

1993...9/11

2005...9/11

2010...9/11

1995...9/10

2012...9/10

[hudsonvalley21]

0.92 in the Davis here.

[donsutherland1]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, looks like JFK stands a smaller chance of getting to double digit 90 degree days now since it fell just short, not that it matters with all the humidity. It will be interesting to see where Boston stands when the season is done with respect to number of 90 degree days.

It's weird to see both Boston and Providence with higher temps than NYC!

Today was Boston’s 23rd day on which the temperature reached 90° or higher. Only 6 years have had more such days:

1983: 30
1955: 28
1991 and 2002: 27
1988 and 2010: 25

The return time for years with 20 or more such days has been falling.

Historic (1872-2018): 9.2 years
Prior to 1950: 19.8 years
1950-2018: 5.8 years
1980-2018: 3.9 years
2010-2018: 3.0 years

The average number of 90° days per year has also been increasing.

Historic (1872-2018): 11.7 per year
1921-50: 11.9 per year
1951-80: 12.6 per year
1989-2018: 13.7 per year
2010-2018: 16.2

In addition, 3 of Boston’s 10 days with minimum temperatures of 80° or above have occurred in the 2010-2018 period. The August 29, 2018 minimum temperature of 81° was, by far, Boston’s latest such minimum temperature on record. The previous latest 80° minimum temperature was set on August 2, 1975.

 

[gravitylover]

I was out in the Hamptons when the weather started building this afternoon. You could see the storms over CT from Amagansett around 3. A few minutes after I left the gas station in Southampton it was setting in all black and filled with lightning and clouds bubbling under just north of 27 and stayed there for almost 30 minutes before overspreading the area as I headed inland on the Southern State. By the time I got to 135 it was absolutely pouring and the water was several inches deep on the road. As I headed west again on the NSP it was easing up but the standing water on the road was still a couple of inches deep especially on the sides where it was about 5". There were some intense downpours along the way and it had mostly let up by the time I got to the CIP but the exit ramp to the Throgs Neck Bridge was easily a foot deep, my car has 4.5" of clearance and it started floating just before reaching the end of the puddle  In Westchester the Hutch was a mess and was closed in a few spots on the southbound side.

The ride from home to Easthampton was just a hair over 2 hours this morning but nearly 5 hours coming home  Some places got a months worth of rain in a pretty short time this afternoon.

 

[SACRUS]

9 - 6

EWR: 98
TEB: 97
LGA: 96
New Bnwck: 96
TTN: 95
PHL: 95
ACY: 94
BLM: 94
NYC: 93
JFK: 89
ISP: 88

[Rtd208]

Current temp 74/DP 72/RH 905

High for the day yesterday was 98

Picked up 0.27" of rain for the day.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was Boston’s 23rd day on which the temperature reached 90° or higher. Only 6 years have had more such days:

1983: 30
1955: 28
1991 and 2002: 27
1988 and 2010: 25

The return time for years with 20 or more such days has been falling.

Historic (1872-2018): 9.2 years
Prior to 1950: 19.8 years
1950-2018: 5.8 years
1980-2018: 3.9 years
2010-2018: 3.0 years

The average number of 90° days per year has also been increasing.

Historic (1872-2018): 11.7 per year
1921-50: 11.9 per year
1951-80: 12.6 per year
1989-2018: 13.7 per year
2010-2018: 16.2

In addition, 3 of Boston’s 10 days with minimum temperatures of 80° or above have occurred in the 2010-2018 period. The August 29, 2018 minimum temperature of 81° was, by far, Boston’s latest such minimum temperature on record. The previous latest 80° minimum temperature was set on August 2, 1975.

 

Thanks Don, this is some very valuable info.  So BOS had a few more than NYC but less than LGA, and LGA somehow had slightly more than EWR.  And JFK was in single digits lol.  What about PVD, did they have a few less than what BOS had?

I'm trying to find some analogs for this summer but can't quite come up with any.  2016?    1983 seems to be popping up in a lot of places but that might be a better analog for next summer, being that it was the summer after an El Nino.  Maybe 2002 is a better fit for this summer although I distinctly remember 2002 being both hotter and drier here.

 

And wow the average number of 90 degree days at Boston has been rapidly increasing- they aren't far from NYC averages now (which were around 17 per year if I recall correctly.)

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I was out in the Hamptons when the weather started building this afternoon. You could see the storms over CT from Amagansett around 3. A few minutes after I left the gas station in Southampton it was setting in all black and filled with lightning and clouds bubbling under just north of 27 and stayed there for almost 30 minutes before overspreading the area as I headed inland on the Southern State. By the time I got to 135 it was absolutely pouring and the water was several inches deep on the road. As I headed west again on the NSP it was easing up but the standing water on the road was still a couple of inches deep especially on the sides where it was about 5". There were some intense downpours along the way and it had mostly let up by the time I got to the CIP but the exit ramp to the Throgs Neck Bridge was easily a foot deep, my car has 4.5" of clearance and it started floating just before reaching the end of the puddle  In Westchester the Hutch was a mess and was closed in a few spots on the southbound side.

The ride from home to Easthampton was just a hair over 2 hours this morning but nearly 5 hours coming home  Some places got a months worth of rain in a pretty short time this afternoon.

 

Wow 5 hours sounds absolutely exhausting!  When you said your car was floating, I bet you were wishing for more "gravity"!

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, uncle W said:

latest date for the first 50's for years with no 50's in August...since 1876...I could not find 1947-1948 which were possible contenders...so far none this year...

2016...9/17

1966...9/15

2015...9/14

1996...9/14

2014...9/13

1905...9/13

1933...9/11

1980...9/11

1993...9/11

2005...9/11

2010...9/11

1995...9/10

2012...9/10

2016 seems to be popping up in a lot of September analogs, I remember that summer was also very humid with very high overnight lows (thanks to high dew points.)  1905, 1933 and 1966 really stand out for being early years for such a sustained pattern, and at least the latter two of those were scorching hot summers.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 74degs., or about 5degs. AN.

06Z GFS shows 48hr. bout with TS conditions here next Thurs.-Sat.  Instead of meandering over the ocean, a 980mb. tropical  low does so right over us.

[LibertyBell]

Bluewave, was today JFK's 40th 75+ dew point day and did JFK reach or exceed 200 hours with a heat index of 90 or higher?  I see the dew point at JFK at  6 AM is 74 so it looks like today is another 75+ dew point day.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, this is some very valuable info.  So BOS had a few more than NYC but less than LGA, and LGA somehow had slightly more than EWR.  And JFK was in single digits lol.  What about PVD, did they have a few less than what BOS had?

I'm trying to find some analogs for this summer but can't quite come up with any.  2016?    1983 seems to be popping up in a lot of places but that might be a better analog for next summer, being that it was the summer after an El Nino.  Maybe 2002 is a better fit for this summer although I distinctly remember 2002 being both hotter and drier here.

 

And wow the average number of 90 degree days at Boston has been rapidly increasing- they aren't far from NYC averages now (which were around 17 per year if I recall correctly.)

Providence has had 21 90° days (same as 1941 and 1980). Only 1983 (30), 1944 (29), and 2002 (26) had more.

Providence has also seen the average number of such days per year increase. 1951-80: 7.9; 1989-2018: 11.2; 2010-18: 13.1; Historic 1905-2018 Period: 9.6

The evolving El Niño probably makes 2002 a better match than 1983 (1982-83 had a much stronger and basinwide El Niño event).

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Providence has had 21 90° days (same as 1941 and 1980). Only 1983 (30), 1944 (29), and 2002 (26) had more.

Providence has also seen the average number of such days per year increase. 1951-80: 7.9; 1989-2018: 11.2; 2010-18: 13.1; Historic 1905-2018 Period: 9.6

The evolving El Niño probably makes 2002 a better match than 1983 (1982-83 had a much stronger and basinwide El Niño event).

2002 and 2015 sound good to me, Don, 1983 maybe for next year.  I stay away from the 11 yr big heat years unless we're at that point in the solar cycle so years like 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010, etc., makes you wonder what kind of summer 2021 might be like on top of the already warming climate.