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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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21 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

06z GFS while a fantasy run would cause massive tidal flooding throughout the mid-Atlantic.

That solution would be a disaster for Long Island and our area and a major disaster for the Cape. mid Atlantic would not get it as bad! Stop putting misinformation. Big snowstorm potential for upstate New York and Vermont if that solution verifies!

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9 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

That solution would be a disaster for Long Island and our area and a major disaster for the Cape. mid Atlantic would not get it as bad! Stop putting misinformation. Big snowstorm potential for upstate New York and Vermont if that solution verifies!

Yep. The 540 line collapses and brings snow up there. 

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34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Probably will see the model cycles waffle 2 more times.  Who knows where it ends up.  No question OTS is most likely.  Overall to me the various ingredients out there don’t add up that’ll be greater than a Cat 1 or 2 when it hits the US if it made it here.  

Depends on the two troughs. The first one can and very well may bring it out to sea completely without affecting any land. If that does not happen and it gets closer to the East Coast there is a chance the second trough picks it up. A lot of variables. I'd say about 20% chance of it hitting the east coast as of recent model runs. 

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1 hour ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

That solution would be a disaster for Long Island and our area and a major disaster for the Cape. mid Atlantic would not get it as bad! Stop putting misinformation. Big snowstorm potential for upstate New York and Vermont if that solution verifies!

Long Island is part of the mid-Atlantic.  Count how many tidal cycles take place while it lingers off shore - that is what leads to tidal flooding.  Misinformation- I don’t think so.

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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Long Island is part of the mid-Atlantic.  Count how many tidal cycles take place while it lingers off shore - that is what leads to tidal flooding.  Misinformation- I don’t think so.

I agree verbatim it’s a big erosion mess. We are way way out though. As others have said and using the don Sutherland rule chances are high it’s out to sea. 

One thing that’s always missed is a fish storm is not a fish storm. All we have to do is get Florence to about 30/50 and it will send large long period swells. That’s almost certain now and days on end of big surf kills people every September. Life guards go off duty and the waters are warm. People think they can handle it  and get stuck in a rip current. At Jones beach we are open with life guards for another 2 weeks. At most beaches life guards are finished for the season.

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Probably will see the model cycles waffle 2 more times.  Who knows where it ends up.  No question OTS is most likely.  Overall to me the various ingredients out there don’t add up that’ll be greater than a Cat 1 or 2 when it hits the US if it made it here.  

Waters are hot at record levels so beware 

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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Long Island is part of the mid-Atlantic.  Count how many tidal cycles take place while it lingers off shore - that is what leads to tidal flooding.  Misinformation- I don’t think so.

I don’t think Long Island is part of mid Atlantic. I consider philly and south part of mid Atlantic 

 

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Select Record-High Minimum Temperatures for 9/5 (preliminary):

Atlantic City: 74° (tied record set in 1953)
Harrisburg: 74° (old record: 73°, 1961, 1985,and 1999)
New York City-LGA: 79° (tied record set in 1985)
New York City-NYC: 77° (tied record set in 1898 and tied in 1907 and 1985)
Newark: 78° (tied record set in 1961)
Teterboro: 76° (old record: 72°, 1999)
Washington, DC: 78° (tied record set in 2012)

Yesterday was LGA’s 84th minimum temperature of 80° or above on record. 45 (54%) have occurred in the period beginning in 2000, including 24 (29%) during the period beginning in 2010. Under LGA’s historic climatology, such readings occurred 1.1 times per year, on average. Since 2000, they have occurred an average of 2.4 days per year and since 2010, they have occurred an average of 2.7 times per year.

 

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1 hour ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

No way! There’s different climate there!

Not really, LGA, PHL, and BWI are all quite similar. We see greater differences locally, Central Park is wetter than JFK by 7 inches.

LGA - 55.7° (mean) - 44.71” (precip) - 26.6” (snow)

PHL - 55.8° (mean) - 41.50” (precip) - 21.9” (snow)

BWI - 55.6° (mean) - 41.85” (precip) - 20.1” (snow)

DCA - 58.2° (mean) - 39.71” (precip) - 15.4” (snow)

I used to live in the DMV area, it’s not all that different compared to NYC (aside from March), in recent years the difference in the amount of snowfall between the two has been pretty extreme, however. That isn’t exactly “normal” though.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I agree verbatim it’s a big erosion mess. We are way way out though. As others have said and using the don Sutherland rule chances are high it’s out to sea. 

One thing that’s always missed is a fish storm is not a fish storm. All we have to do is get Florence to about 30/50 and it will send large long period swells. That’s almost certain now and days on end of big surf kills people every September. Life guards go off duty and the waters are warm. People think they can handle it  and get stuck in a rip current. At Jones beach we are open with life guards for another 2 weeks. At most beaches life guards are finished for the season.

Strongly agree.

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According to the USGS the Mid-Atlantic Region is all of Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, along with parts of NJ, NY, and North Carolina that drain into the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays, and the Albemarie and Pamlico Sounds. The tri-state area verbatim is not part of the Mid-Atlantic as it do not drain into any of those. Thus, our area is the northeast. 

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Record High Temperatures for 9/5 (through 2:00 PM):

Burlington: 90° (tied record set in 1973)
Erie: 92° (tied record set in 1881)
Georgetown: 93° (tied record set in 1961)
Harrisburg: 93° (tied record set in 1954)
Philadelphia: 94° (old record: 92°, 1961, 1973 and 1985)
Scranton: 90° (tied record set in 1983)

 

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Record High Temperatures for 9/5 (through 3:00 PM):

Albany: 91° (tied record set in 1973)
Burlington: 92° (old record: 90°, 1973)
Erie: 92° (tied record set in 1881)
Georgetown: 93° (tied record set in 1961)
Harrisburg: 93° (tied record set in 1954)
Philadelphia: 95° (old record: 92°, 1961, 1973 and 1985)
Scranton: 90° (tied record set in 1983)

 

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