Winter 2018 Discussion

[Jackstraw]

If we start seeing insane 1060+ ridges on the models moving down out of Canada Snowless might want to move back to GA.  

[Malacka11]

Possibly active weather pattern through the first half of November, eh?

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Possibly active weather pattern through the first half of November, eh?

Models flashing tons of bomb wanna-be's. Can we get a little arctic connection please?

[Hoosier]

LC sounds pretty pessimistic about things... until January.  Meanwhile I'm guessing JB is balls to the wall cold/snow, but I admit I haven't checked.

[Cold Rain]

On 11/4/2018 at 12:47 AM, Hoosier said:

LC sounds pretty pessimistic about things... until January.  Meanwhile I'm guessing JB is balls to the wall cold/snow, but I admit I haven't checked.

Yep, as per consensus, December is the mildest of the 3 winter months, though, he hedges that it could be colder.  AN snowfall TN valley, SE, mid-Atlantic, and southern NE, with the axis of highest anoms through TN and the upper SE.  Temps generally -3 - -5.

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Yep, as per consensus, December is the mildest of the 3 winter months, though, he hedges that it could be colder.  AN snowfall TN valley, SE, mid-Atlantic, and southern NE, with the axis of highest anoms through TN and the upper SE.  Temps generally -3 - -5.

Just read his monthly outlooks. Calls for colder than normal temperatures November, January, February, and March with warmer than normal in December. He makes it sound like December has potential to be quite mild and then February very cold. Not a fan of mild December's although after the last two I suppose you could argue we are due. Naturally this does not mean there won't be a few good snows, just not consistency of the last few decembers.

[Hoosier]

Mild Decembers are the worst.

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Mild Decembers are the worst.

CFSv2 has begun to re-think it's torch December over the E CONUS, fwiw. As for being "due" here in the S GL's & OHV, I disagree. The past 2 good Dec's balanced the dumpster fires of '14 & '15. I'd say it's more like a balanced ledger going into this one.

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

CFSv2 has begun to re-think it's torch December over the E CONUS, fwiw. As for being "due" here in the S GL's & OHV, I disagree. The past 2 good Dec's balanced the dumpster fires of '14 & '15. I'd say it's more like a balanced ledger going into this one.

You have to go back to 2012 to get average December snowfall here.

2017: snowy (5th snowiest)

2016: snowy (14th snowiest)

2015: low snow (6th least snowy)

2014: low snow (2nd least snowy)

2013: snowy (20th snowiest)

 

What's interesting is that the snowy December of 2013, which would be snowy in most winters, would seem like a meek onset to the most severe Winter we had ever seen here. The low snow of December 2014 was an absolute train wreck of a month as a whole, but ended up completely lost in an otherwise severe Winter, plus it followed The historic Winter the year before.

[WestMichigan]

3 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
327 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 14
  inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Keweenaw and Northern Houghton Counties.

 

 

Nice, 3-5" in the forecast down here.

[Hoosier]

Here's my winter call for ORD.  

Temperatures (DJF):  near to below average... 0 to -2

Snowfall (first to last flake):  below average... 25-35"

There's the usual caveat about one very big storm pretty much ruining a call for below average snow.  I'd gladly be wrong on the snow part.  

Interested in seeing LOT's winter forecast and if it looks anything like mine lol 

[buckeye]

On 11/10/2018 at 2:19 PM, Hoosier said:

Here's my winter call for ORD.  

Temperatures (DJF):  near to below average... 0 to -2

Snowfall (first to last flake):  below average... 25-35"

There's the usual caveat about one very big storm pretty much ruining a call for below average snow.  I'd gladly be wrong on the snow part.  

Interested in seeing LOT's winter forecast and if it looks anything like mine lol 

NE and MA subs are licking their chops.  Haven't seen a single winter forecast that isn't a weenie's dream for them.  Even Don S is as bullish as I've ever seen.

Meanwhile the forecast for our fly-over sub is kinda non-descript...lol.  It'll be interesting to look back after the last dirty patch of ice melts and see how it all worked out.

Wasn't it DT who said, (when it comes to forecasting), if everyone is thinking the same thing....no one is thinking.

[buckeye]

On 11/6/2018 at 5:30 AM, michsnowfreak said:

You have to go back to 2012 to get average December snowfall here.

2017: snowy (5th snowiest)

2016: snowy (14th snowiest)

2015: low snow (6th least snowy)

2014: low snow (2nd least snowy)

2013: snowy (20th snowiest)

 

What's interesting is that the snowy December of 2013, which would be snowy in most winters, would seem like a meek onset to the most severe Winter we had ever seen here. The low snow of December 2014 was an absolute train wreck of a month as a whole, but ended up completely lost in an otherwise severe Winter, plus it followed The historic Winter the year before.

You might have just jinxed yourself 

[Hoosier]

6 hours ago, buckeye said:

NE and MA subs are licking their chops.  Haven't seen a single winter forecast that isn't a weenie's dream for them.  Even Don S is as bullish as I've ever seen.

Meanwhile the forecast for our fly-over sub is kinda non-descript...lol.  It'll be interesting to look back after the last dirty patch of ice melts and see how it all worked out.

Wasn't it DT who said, (when it comes to forecasting), if everyone is thinking the same thing....no one is thinking.

Indeed, it was the infamous DT.  

Don is bullish?  Well that is definitely more noteworthy.

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, buckeye said:

You might have just jinxed yourself 

 I hope not lol

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Indeed, it was the infamous DT.  

Don is bullish?  Well that is definitely more noteworthy.

Where do you see an outlook from don? I always like his analysis. If the type of Winter that they are hyping for the northeast comes to fruition the way they expect it to, it would imply to me colder than normal with near normal snow here and above avg snow in the ohio valley. Give me a clippery Winter with lots of snowcover and I'm happy.  I'm sure a big storm or 2 will be thrown in there somewhere. And until I see mother nature prove me otherwise with several sub par winters, it is hard to go against the snow trend here so I would probably go colder and snowier than normal for this area. Not blockbuster but snowy.  Unless there are raging signs of a crap Winter I will be going average or above for snow. Just 2 of the last 11 winters were below avg snow here! I'm oiling my magnet up for the season as we speak lol. 

[Chambana]

FWIW for months CFS has been advertising a torch for December, last few runs have definitely trended much colder. Something to keep an eye on. 

[Jonger]

Every time I check the long range the warm up gets dialed back. Now it's looking like next week wed through Friday goes above normal and then right back to the deep freezer.

[Jonger]

34 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Nope. Follow the pattern and you see 2 big things. Tropical influence waning ending the pattern that started on October 10-11 and a breakdown between the 15th and 20th. The last "arctic" high has looked weaker and less invasive which you would expect. GFS mishandling energy waves off the pacific are well ingrained in its being. I suspect point forecasts will be revising upward over the next week until we hit Turkey day and the change is complete.

Every single model run has reduced the torch. It's clearly not going to be anywhere near the previous forecast.

I don't care about tropical signals or any other index, those only matter until they don't matter.

[Baum]

3 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Nope. Follow the pattern and you see 2 big things. Tropical influence waning ending the pattern that started on October 10-11 and a breakdown between the 15th and 20th. The last "arctic" high has looked weaker and less invasive which you would expect. GFS mishandling energy waves off the pacific are well ingrained in its being. I suspect point forecasts will be revising upward over the next week until we hit Turkey day and the change is complete.

Based on this post I'm buying a new pair of snow pants.

[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

Based on this post I'm buying a new pair of snow pants.

Yeah, everyone buy rock salt and snow shovels, it is about to get real deep

 

[Malacka11]

8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah, everyone buy rock salt and snow shovels, it is about to get real deep

 

*It's the most wonderful time, of the year* 

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, Chambana said:

FWIW for months CFS has been advertising a torch for December, last few runs have definitely trended much colder. Something to keep an eye on. 

The change in the warm-biased CFS was extremely abrupt.  Hopefully it stays. Definitely do not see any sustained warm up anywhere in sight

[RogueWaves]

Lakes get warmed up. To normal, lol. The Plains will bounce, that's just how they roll. Models to play catch-up all winter, much as they did in 2013-14. Beware The Blob

[Chambana]

Was just scrolling through Twitter and Judah Cohen tweeted out that CFS has been consistent in its most recent forecast for the rest of November, December, January to feature a classic El Niño +PNA ridge in west, trough in east. 

[buckeye]

On 11/14/2018 at 1:25 PM, Jonger said:

Every single model run has reduced the torch. It's clearly not going to be anywhere near the previous forecast.

I don't care about tropical signals or any other index, those only matter until they don't matter.

Will be interesting to see what happens.   Lots of mixed signals....first it looked torchy...then it looked like we may keep ballz to wallz cold/cool into December...now there are hints of somewhere in between.   FWIW today's 12z euro has mid to upper 50's back into central and n. IN/OH the weekend after Thanksgiving and a much more stormy but zonal look overall.

Personally, this snow, sleet, freezing rain stuff today is too damn early as far as I'm concerned 

 

[Hoosier]

[Jonger]

17 hours ago, buckeye said:

Will be interesting to see what happens.   Lots of mixed signals....first it looked torchy...then it looked like we may keep ballz to wallz cold/cool into December...now there are hints of somewhere in between.   FWIW today's 12z euro has mid to upper 50's back into central and n. IN/OH the weekend after Thanksgiving and a much more stormy but zonal look overall.

Personally, this snow, sleet, freezing rain stuff today is too damn early as far as I'm concerned 

 

Yea, it's probably a foregone conclusion at this point, it's going to be more average to slightly above after Thanksgiving. Hopefully things snap back soon.

[buckeye]

18 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Yea, it's probably a foregone conclusion at this point, it's going to be more average to slightly above after Thanksgiving. Hopefully things snap back soon.

I don't know, maybe it's the snow on the ground right now or maybe it's, (as you mentioned), a subtle trend for the models to continually tamp down long range warmth,

either way I'm getting a sinking feeling that we are staring down the barrel of a snow and cold weenie's dream winter for the sub.  Unfortunately for me, I'm not nearly the excitable winter weenie I once was, it figures.

[pondo1000]

6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I don't know, maybe it's the snow on the ground right now or maybe it's, (as you mentioned), a subtle trend for the models to continually tamp down long range warmth,

either way I'm getting a sinking feeling that we are staring down the barrel of a snow and cold weenie's dream winter for the sub.  Unfortunately for me, I'm not nearly the excitable winter weenie I once was, it figures.

You are like a grumpy ole’ man any more! LOL