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NJwx85

Hurricane Lane impacts Hawaii

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17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Damn, thought they might try and run missions from Kauai.

Yeah I was pretty bummed that they left so early but I suppose we were fortunate to get recon for the storm.

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Latest advisory said 115kts could be conservative. Confidence is still well below normal. Cloud tops seem to be warming in the northern semi circle and the presentation overall isn’t as good as it was a couple hours ago. Not really seeing any reasons for this.

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Also looks like latest track takes the center within 100 miles of Ohau, and advisory stated the sudden West hook is dependent on the core decoupling. As I type this, we just had by far our strongest gust yet, probably over 40.

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The eyewall looks like it is starting to take on a tilted vortex appearance from SSW (LLC) to NNE (MLC) in the directional flow of impeding shear. The CDO also appears to be elongating in that direction as well. This just might be the beginning of faster paced weakening.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

The eyewall looks like it is starting to take on a tilted vortex appearance from SSW to NNE in the directional flow of impeding shear. The CDO also appears to be elongating in that direction as well. This just might be the beginning of faster paced weakening.

It’s funny, as more time goes on, the weather weenie in me wants this to be at least a 2 by the time it gets here. Probably a once in a life time experience of being in the right place at the right time. If this was Florida, we would have probably left.

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One plausible outcome is that the storm, always slowly weakening, never makes landfall (as defined by center crossing a coastline) anywhere populated, and drifts south of Kauai by Sunday to west of Kauai by Monday as a tropical storm. This is the GGEM solution and it makes some sense given the position and intensity of the northeast Pacific high. 

That would not rule out cat-1 wind gusts over some central and western portions of the state. I would still say though a 30-40 per cent chance of a hurricane landfall and that most likely to be in Oahu or possibly western Maui. 

But I think the rainfall will be the only major problem and it could be a rather complex pattern given the slow-moving nature of Lane, the rotating bands of moisture, and topography. 

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47 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

This thread is dead considering

 

42 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol it is, yet Alberta clippers have 37 page threads. Definitely a significant situation ongoing for big island.

seriously i thought it would be much more active than this.  

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7 minutes ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said:

 

seriously i thought it would be much more active than this.  

I’m blaming the time difference and because we have no recon and the storm is weakening.

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I’m seriously having doubts about that 8-12 inches of rain here. Especially if this thing tracks towards Maui/Big Island. We stay on the dry NW side. 

Darby we didn’t get any rainfall until after the storm passed when the flow became southerly. 

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EAS just went off here, extremely dangerous wind and flooding imminent, leave the area if threatened, from NWS Honolulu.

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23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m blaming the time difference and because we have no recon and the storm is weakening.

I would be shocked if you see conditions as bad as Sandy

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8 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said:

I’m seriously having doubts about that 8-12 inches of rain here. Especially if this thing tracks towards Maui/Big Island. We stay on the dry NW side. 

Darby we didn’t get any rainfall until after the storm passed when the flow became southerly. 

We’ll get the rain tonight and tomorrow, unless the center hits Maui.

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25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m blaming the time difference and because we have no recon and the storm is weakening.

i didnt think about that, but still it's funny seeing this 9 page thread about a major hurricane potentially landfalling in hawaii ( a true rartity) while winter threads easily fill 50+ pages containing nothing more than wishcasting and banal banter that has nothing to do with the topic at hand

 

going back on topic; how are conditions there currently?

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I would be shocked if you see conditions as bad as Sandy

Honestly some of the wind gusts so far remind me of that night I was out with my fire department. It’s not on the same level, but it’s so much more intense than normal. 

They shutdown all the pools at 1:00 and put away all the furniture. They told us not to leave the resort or be back before 8pm because the main road in and out of this area is closing.

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1 minute ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said:

i didnt think about that, but still it's funny seeing this 9 page thread about a major hurricane potentially landfalling in hawaii ( a true rartity) while winter threads easily fill 50+ pages containing nothing more than wishcasting and banal banter that has nothing to do with the topic at hand

 

going back on topic; how are conditions there currently?

We took a walk out to the beach where it’s more exposed and the wind is frequently gusting over 30mph. It’s been dark and overcast most of the day with occasional showers. Nothing heavy so far has made it over the mountain. That will all change when the wind direction becomes more Easterly rather than Northeasterly.

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