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NJwx85

Hurricane Lane impacts Hawaii

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IR looks like ERC underway, but hard to tell. Overall appearance still looking stellar.

Edit: Perhaps some southeasterly shear starting to take affect. Outflow seems a bit restricted in that quadrant.

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4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

IR looks like ERC underway, but hard to tell. Overall appearance still looking stellar.

Edit: Perhaps some southeasterly shear starting to take affect. Outflow seems a bit restricted in that quadrant.

 

Yep.  You can see the southeasterly shear blowing cloud tops toward the NNE in the lower-left part of the AVN loop.

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6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The big island is barely populated. Maui is populated but most of Hawaii’s population lives on Ohau.

This is kind of an ignorant post.  The big island is the second most populated island, with over 100,000 people.  Though HNL is the most populated island, there is still plenty of population and infrastructure on Maui and the Big Island.  The central and SW coasts of Maui and the western coast of the Big Island are particularly vulnerable.  

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6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS op is all on its own.  Doesn't seem viable at this moment.

It'll be interesting to see how things develop over the next few days. I'm withholding judgment right now, but I just get the sense that in the tropical space, the GFS has been awfully outdone by other guidance in the most critical times in the last few years. Obviously, a good forecaster knows when to blend guidance and lean on what they see in the upper level environment to develop an accurate track forecast, but in these really big moments it seems that the GFS has either been lost or really late to the best solution. 

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20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It'll be interesting to see how things develop over the next few days. I'm withholding judgment right now, but I just get the sense that in the tropical space, the GFS has been awfully outdone by other guidance in the most critical times in the last few years. Obviously, a good forecaster knows when to blend guidance and lean on what they see in the upper level environment to develop an accurate track forecast, but in these really big moments it seems that the GFS has either been lost or really late to the best solution. 

well the gfs many days ago showed the possibility of lane affecting the islands in a direct way while the euro was following hector track way out to sea...

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Down to 155MPH at 5am local time, and track nudged West again. Better for me in terms of wind but worse in terms of rainfall and angle of approach.

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27 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

well the gfs many days ago showed the possibility of lane affecting the islands in a direct way while the euro was following hector track way out to sea...

Yeah, idk. It’s hard to have the conversation when things are still TBD. The capability of the guidance across the board has grown incredibly in the last two decades so maybe I’m missing the forest for the trees, but the discrepancy between guidance particularly in high stakes moments seems glaring to me. 

Anyway, starting to see rain bands show up on long range radar. Interesting day of tracking ahead.

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5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

looks like lane might be intensifying again against all odds..

Definitely lopsided to the northeast overall, but the CDO and core of the storm has improved some over the past few hours.

avn0-lalo.gif

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Yeah, CDO looks great. I don't think I've seen a microwave image in a while though. You can see how the western half of the CDO has blossomed. Not sure it's strengthening, but I don't see any weakening.  

rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

 

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The axis of stronger wind shear is clearly just west of Lane's core but not advancing or yet encroaching upon the core itself, which is still within a very favorable environment. Barring ongoing consolidation of an outter concentric band forcing an ERC, Lane should hold at least Cat 4 intensity through the next 12 hrs. The CDO is very impressive at the moment.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

you can see it is fighting shear..

Not nearly enough to affect a northwardly propagating Catergory 5 during peak season. The models failed to see that an inner core would be established relatively early on.

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Hawaii is my favorite place. Been to Oahu, Maui and Kawaii, and all are great in their own ways. Great people, amazing food, incredible scenery and insanely nice hotels. 

Stayed at the Ritz Carlton in Maui, the St. Regis Princeville on Kawaii, and the Halekulani on Oahu in HNL. I actually teared up when i had to leave. 

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529
NOUS42 KNHC 221645
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT WED 22 AUGUST 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-090

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS:
A. DUE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE
LANE AND THE LEAD TIME REQUIRED TO EVACUATE
AIRCREW, GROUND CREWS, EQUIPMENT, AND AIRCRAFT,
THE WC-130J MISSIONS SCHEDULED ON YESTERDAY'S
TCPOD 18-089 WILL NOT BE FLOWN.
B. THE G-IV MISSION WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED IN
YESTERDAY'S TCPOD 18-089.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Hawaii is my favorite place. Been to Oahu, Maui and Kawaii, and all are great in their own ways. Great people, amazing food, incredible scenery and insanely nice hotels. 

Stayed at the Ritz Carlton in Maui, the St. Regis Princeville on Kawaii, and the Halekulani on Oahu in HNL. I actually teared up when i had to leave. 

Same here. Hawaii, specifically the north shore of Oahu is the Mecca for surfers. I have been to the same islands but have spent most of my time there on Oahu. I think hands down the biggest threat is flash flooding. As the core will most likely remain to the south and offshore tropical storm force winds out of the same direction as the trades shouldn’t cause to many problems. The wave impacts will be minimal as the islands are routinely impacted by swells from both the north and occasional South Pacific that are far larger then what a hurricane can produce. (Small fetch area reduces swell generation) 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Wettest Euro run for Ohau so far. Lane slows to a crawl just SW of the island. 

 

18256483_Screenshot2018-08-22at2_33_14PM.thumb.png.693d3e24a7007ba921710eda77900b56.png

It's likely to be on the low-side of the envelope if/when such a track verifies. I noticed the Euro intensity (SLP) is a bit conservative but I don't have access to the high resolution Euro.

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Visual for those wondering. eep2g0Z.jpg&key=c5fe3bfa37c2e7baf2e486dd86b3d3938dff4e3ed815d28e54ddcb0f07b827c8
 

That is long base range, so not the greatest detail, but the outter banding north of the eyewall doesn't look too organized yet to be choking off the eyewall even if the northern semicircle of the eyewall already has a moat feature.

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12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

That is long base range, so not the greatest detail, but the outter banding north of the eyewall doesn't look too organized yet to be choking off the eyewall even if the northern semicircle of the eyewall already has a moat feature.

I think an ewrc is actually a worse case scenerio for Hawaii. If a larger eye developes it could potentially expand the area of hurricane force winds and impact a larger area. Think Ike.

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