hlcater Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, nycwinter said: they will have to revise the strength of this storm to a cat 5 in the future..after reviewing all the information.. Also because the NHC will do that because Lane was an eastern pacific storm. Probably with some collaboration from the CPHC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: And if the island containing Honolulu gets hit, who takes over then? Probably the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 I would've never believed it had someone set this scenario up for me, can't make this up! 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: And if the island containing Honolulu gets hit, who takes over then? I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Reading all this reminds me of a NHC Hurricane Floyd forecast discussion from 1999: ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/12. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...CALLING FOR AN EROSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FLOYD AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER AND NOW SHOWS THE CENTER CROSSING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AFTER 48 HOURS. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE OR IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND NONE OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE HURRICANE OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HOWEVER SINCE FLOYD IS FORECAST TO MOVE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AS PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE DADE COUNTY FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO REQUIRES THAT THE HURRICANE WATCH BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. RECON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND GPS DROPS IN THE EYEWALL SUPPORT 135 KNOTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND. THE LATEST RECON CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS 921 MB WHICH CORRELATES WITH 140 KNOTS...AND THE HURRICANE COULD EVEN GET A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER 135 KNOTS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET EVERYONES ATTENTION. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 24.1N 72.1W 135 KTS 12HR VT 14/0000Z 24.5N 74.0W 135 KTS 24HR VT 14/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 135 KTS 36HR VT 15/0000Z 27.3N 78.8W 135 KTS 48HR VT 15/1200Z 29.6N 80.3W 135 KTS 72HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 80.5W 65 KTS...INLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Man the GFS is a tough scenario for the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: lol Recon is making the first pass 923.3mb extrapolated surface pressure 146kt peak flight level wind Unflagged 154 and 152kt SFMR readings wxtwitter is so lit rn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 154kts. OH WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT. I, for one, am surprised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man the GFS is a tough scenario for the islands. GFS and the Euro still haven't sorted things out with the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 wonder if something is wrong with the plane...they went out east, made the turn, then just started flying in circles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Just went cat 5! 160mph winds and 922mb pressure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 30C+ in the eye at FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 TWC just posted it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 ..NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LANE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that Lane has continued to intensify this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h), making Lane an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour. SUMMARY OF 620 PM HST...0420 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 154.0W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 the storm does not look as good as it did a few hours ago on infrared... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: the storm does not look as good as it did a few hours ago on infrared... I think it looks better than earlier. More symmetrical, and cloud tops are slightly cooler, but it did lose some of the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, nycwinter said: ..NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LANE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that Lane has continued to intensify this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h), making Lane an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour. SUMMARY OF 620 PM HST...0420 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 154.0W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES Finally... most of us knew it has been a Cat 5 for hours today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, nycwinter said: the storm does not look as good as it did a few hours ago on infrared... yeah it probably peaked a bit ago or is there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 minute ago, hlcater said: I think it looks better than earlier. More symmetrical, and cloud tops are slightly cooler, but it did lose some of the banding. cloud tops are warming a bit on its western side but it still looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said: cloud tops are warming a bit on its western side but it still looks great yea I was talking on the order of 4-5 hours ago. Seems that its right about peaking like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 it does look like the eye is shrinking a little but that could just be my eyes deceiving me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said: it does look like the eye is shrinking a little but that could just be my eyes deceiving me I notice it as well... EWRC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: I notice it as well... EWRC? Hard to tell as of now. Microwave pass would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Now that they upgraded it watch it undergo an ewrc and weaken. Lol. Should have been upgraded hours ago. Def think we hit peak though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 minute ago, irishbri74 said: Hard to tell as of now. Microwave pass would help. i didnt see any evidence of a double wind maxima on that last pass, but yeah, microwave would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 still dont get whats going on with NOAA2, it's been loitering for almost an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 0Z HWRF has the big island getting smacked by the eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: still dont get whats going on with NOAA2, it's been loitering for almost an hour Site crash again? I remember a similar issue during Irma last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Site crash again? I remember a similar issue during Irma last year i dont think so. it's logging the AF flight that is inbound and NOAA2 was doing circles and is now just kinda headed east even further out edit: we've got a turn. hopefully theyre headed to make another pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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