NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 The latest forecast trends are increasing the odds of direct impacts in portions of the Hawaiian islands. I’ll be in Ohau until the 29th, that’s if I can still get out then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 11pm advisory up to 150mph max winds. Pressure down to 950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The latest forecast trends are increasing the odds of direct impacts in portions of the Hawaiian islands. I’ll be in Ohau until the 29th, that’s if I can still get out then. You’ll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 The storm stands no chance if it comes up in behind the big island. The combination of wind disruption and downsloping would almost certainly wreak havoc on the inner core of the storm, making quick work of it no matter how strong it is coming in. This would greatly reduce wind impacts on the other islands. However, there would be some pretty hefty rainfall amounts on the big island if this were the case as all the incoming moisture would be effectively wraught out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 0z Euro had a significant flash flood and mudslide threat for Ohau. But the focus for the heaviest rains can easily shift in later runs. You can see how much the track changed in just the last few days. Thanks. Im not so much worried about flash flooding as I’m on the 5th floor of a 14 floor high rise, part of a huge resort in Ko Olina, which is on the SW corner of Ohau. What is a concern is potential storm surge. The property is less than 10 years old and since hurricane strikes are so rare here, nothing in terms of a sea wall or protection exists. The only somewhat protection is from a man made dam for lack of a better term designed to break the waves and keep the sharks out, but it’s barely visible above the sea surface. I also don’t know about hurricane codes out here. Like we’re staying in a 2 bedroom with 3 large sliding glass doors. Sure they are probably built to handle strong winds but how strong exactly and what about strikes from flying debris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm all in on tracking Lane so y'all are going to have to bear with me. 12z GFS looks to have a direct impact (or extremely close approach) on the big island. It's weakening of course as it makes the approach, but it looks pretty similar so far to what the 06z HWRF had. Then Lane bends back west and passes just south of the other islands (through hr 78) in a weakened form. I don't know much about PAC climo, but this looks very impressive for an area that rarely sees any strong tropical impacts. Would love to see some thoughts from @Windspeed and @Chinook. Typically an approach from the South like Lane is the best shot the storm has at surviving. Lane should miss both the colder water pocket East of the islands and the higher terrain on the big island. Maui and Ohau have some higher mountains, but not compared to the big island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It generally looks like it will be at tropical storm strength if it makes it as far NW as Ohau. All the guidance shows a steady weakening trend once NW of the big island. Per latest discussions, shear will have the largest impact on weakening and differences with handling the building ridge are causing major differences in intensity forecasts. If the cyclone is slowly sheared apart, it will still pack quite a punch up here. Rainfall will still be on atrocious levels but at least storm surge and overall wind damage would be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Typically an approach from the South like Lane is the best shot the storm has at surviving. Lane should miss both the colder water pocket East of the islands and the higher terrain on the big island. Maui and Ohau have some higher mountains, but not compared to the big island. This is wrong re: Maui. Haleakala is 10,000ft and will shred a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 After this point, the track and intensity forecast become increasingly uncertain, as a bulk of the model guidance is depicting interaction between Lane and the terrain of the islands. This interaction then leads to a weakened Lane increasingly being steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated track forecast is essentially an update of the previous official forecast, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus HCCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 As previously suggested, I also think the worst issues with Lane will indeed be flooding. Even though the angle of approach supports the best track for a possible hurricane landfall based on the profile of sea surface temperatures and climatology, Lane's approach in particular will bring the core into increasing southwesterly mid-to-upper 500-300mb shear. The last actual hurricane landfall, being Iniki, the 500mb heights and southerly steering flow were positioned directly east of Iniki so though upper-level enhancement increased, shear was limited, which resulted in not only a hurricane strike but a major one. In the case of Lane, heights will actually be rebuilding to the NE as the mid-level trough digs and begins the process of cutting off. This should introduce three vectors of wind flow between surface, steering and upper-level flow. Lane will even get blocked and turn back NW-WNW slowly moving along or just south of the chain. Timing of this slow down will be critical to how close Lane can get to landfall before significant weakening, but I'm not confident Lane can remain a hurricane up to landfall, if the core landfalls at all. Yes, there is still a high threat of damaging winds, but this won't be another Iniki. Regardless if Lane is a weakening Cat 1 or 2 hurricane or TS upon land interactions of the weakening core, the biggest threat is going to be the insane amounts of easterly orographically-enhanced rainfall on the islands' volcanoes. The surface circulation will slow down and turn back to the WNW and not at a rapid pace and this will cause a lot of problems for runoff and flooding of areas with lowest topography. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: This is wrong re: Maui. Haleakala is 10,000ft and will shred a hurricane. I was in Maui two years ago and while the island is indeed mountainous, the coverage and area isn’t like the big island, that’s all I’m saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 early this year in honolulu they had 3-5 inches of rain in a 1-2 hour period .. producing massive flooding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 So busy here at work. Dealing with Lane, and the other two typhoons hitting Korea and Japan all on the same day. So glad I don’t work Friday and Saturday. Friends at JTWC also can’t catch a break. They aren’t taking chances here especially considering what happened at Guam with typhoon Maria last month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: On the first pass (NW to SE): 939.2 mb (extrapolated surface pressure a little over 8,500 ft) 141kt peak flight level wind 134kt SFMR peak surface wind Waiting on the dropsonde to confirm. Probably up to 155MPH. Didn’t ever think a few days ago this had any chance of reaching cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Probably up to 155MPH. Didn’t ever think a few days ago this had any chance of reaching cat 5. I bet they won't upgrade simply as to not cause undue panic for Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I bet they won't upgrade simply as to not cause undue panic for Hawaii. Scientifically untennable in my opinion. They would need to post-season review it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I bet they won't upgrade simply as to not cause undue panic for Hawaii. I think the hurricane center would be insulted by this comment. If the data supports an upgrade, they will upgrade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 anyone else see the illuminati triangle in the eye? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 With so much shear expected to impact Lane, I'm not sure what landfall/closest approach intensity will be. On one hand, there is a very strong core that could be a bit resistant to rapid weakening. On the other hand...shear tends to wind those battles, especially if it's attacking in different sectors (low level, etc.).If you'lll notice the GFS and RGEM 500mb dam is very persuasive that Lane gets decapitated somewhere in the late 48-72 hr range. Easterly trades and Leeward flow off the islands halts Lane's LLC with strong 30-40kts mid-to-upper southwesterly flow persisting. A strong moisture feed against the trades will still do a nasty deed over the islands depending on closest approach however. This trend is why I am gaining confidence Lane will not be a hurricane impact at landfall with respect to sustained winds for the lower elevations. But it certainly poses a severe flooding threat depending on how proximity of track, eastern semicircle of circulation, moisture feed and windward orographic enhancement evolves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Outflow looks near perfect in all quadrants currently so it’s definitly maximizing its potential. No signs of shear yet in the SW quadrant. Well see what effect that has soon as it should start to feel the shear in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Latest HWRF has Lane's core holding together fairly well and reaching latitude of Maui somewhat intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Bad news, 18Z spaghetti plots went east again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Outflow looks near perfect in all quadrants currently so it’s definitly maximizing its potential. No signs of shear yet in the SW quadrant. Well see what effect that has soon as it should start to feel the shear in the next 24 hours. If you really look, I can notice a tinge of westerly shear, noted by the ever so slight lopside to the east. Doesn’t seem to really be troubling the hurricane though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 New advisory out, CPHC track is east now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 They went 155MPH at 11am. The track is now pointing towards a possible landfall on Ohau, however it leaves the door open for a possible track more to the right towards Maui or the big island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 How is Lane doing this with 27C waters? Is there like a layer of 29-30C water 50 meters below the surface? Upper-air enhancements? Unreal stuff. For perspective. Most of the SW Atlantic has warmer waters than this region of the PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 How is Lane doing this with 27C waters? Is there like a layer of 29-30C water 50 meters below the surface? Upper-air enhancements? Unreal stuff. For perspective. Most of the SW Atlantic has warmer waters than this region of the PAC.Lane's core is moving just fast enough over SSTs with a mean of 28°C. Even though the 26°C isotherm isn't substantially deep, Lane is moving fast enough that upwelling is not really an issue. 28°C SSTs can support a Cat 5 in the right favorable atmospheric conditions. With excellent outflow and slightly cooler upper tropospheric region for lower level instability and convergence, consider those conditions favorable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: How is Lane doing this with 27C waters? Is there like a layer of 29-30C water 50 meters below the surface? Upper-air enhancements? Unreal stuff. For perspective. Most of the SW Atlantic has warmer waters than this region of the PAC. that northern outflow channel is putting in work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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