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Hurricane Lane impacts Hawaii


NJwx85
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Just now, metalicwx366 said:

What kinda winds are you seeing there? We just gusted up to 40MPH.

We’ve had some stronger gusts, close to 50. The stronger gusts seem to accompany the rain, so I’m sure if some actual convection can build in we will finally see tropical storm conditions. That bright band offshore is full of 50-60mph sustained wind with some gusts over 70 still embedded.

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Lane finally showing a pulse the last hour or so as IR indicates some new convection firing to the NE of the LLC as we approach the dirunial maximum. You can see this on radar as a fairly healthy looking band of rain has formed just to the South of Maui and Oahu, generally moving Northward.

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23 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

njwx's lack of tropical knowledge and spelling is appalling ITT

 

I know more than you think, however when your family is directly in the path of a hurricane you tend to look at things differently than you would from thousands of miles away.

And secondly, @wxtrix called and wants her grammar police shield back.

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7 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

you are at a Disney resort for 40mph gusts and passing showers

stop being over dramatic 

Who’s being dramatic? Yesterday Lane was a category 4 hurricane that was holding its own, obviously the shear was too much to overcome even with how well organized the circulation was. The models were also all over the place, both in terms of track and intensity until this morning. We had reason to be concerned. And the rain and fresh water flash flood potential still remains.

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2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

It really is not a good thing wind is what most take so seriously... flooding doesn't get the attention but is far more widespread and destructive.

The Windward side of the big island is experiencing catastrophic flooding and the forecast here is for lots more rain regardless as to whether or not Lane becomes a remnant low.

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38 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

@metalicwx366 I can smell the rain and visually see a shower passing by to the South now. Even a few sprinkles here. I think a sign of things shifting a bit to a more Southerly flow.

Yep, radar starting to fill in slowly. 

0Z GFS and HRRR still showing the potential of some significant rainfall with a heavy band of rain that sets up over the area tomorrow. Sort of reminds me of Darby from 2016 when we got significant flash flooding after the system passed when flow turned southerly. 

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23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Windward side of the big island is experiencing catastrophic flooding and the forecast here is for lots more rain regardless as to whether or not Lane becomes a remnant low.

Harvey should've taught that lesson, bad wind damage in tiny locale, known for flooding and destruction of wide area from fresh water flooding. Allison is perfect example.

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24 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said:

Yep, radar starting to fill in slowly. 

0Z GFS and HRRR still showing the potential of some significant rainfall with a heavy band of rain that sets up over the area tomorrow. Sort of reminds me of Darby from 2016 when we got significant flash flooding after the system passed when flow turned southerly. 

Yeah I guess we’ll see. Even under a yellow echo all I got was a few sprinkles.

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Epic rains continue for the Big Island. New record wettest August for Hilo. First summer month to go above 40.00. Rainiest month on record there is December 1954 at 50.82. They typically see the heaviest rains between November and April.

Wettest Augusts on Record for Hilo

#1....2018....41.61 so far

#2....1991....26.92

11:00 pm 8/24/18 Preliminary rain totals on Big Island show 4 stations have reported 40+ inches from #Lane. The highest is Waiakea Uka with 44.88". Flooding remains a primary concern this weekend for some islands. #HIwx
 
NWS update:
 
HILO AIRPORT MEASURED 31.85 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE THREE DAY PERIOD
RUNNING FROM 12 MIDNIGHT HST AUGUST 22 THROUGH 1159 PM HST AUGUST
24. THIS BECOMES THE WETTEST THREE DAY PERIOD EVER OBSERVED AT HILO, 
WITH RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1949. HILO ALSO MEASURED 15.00 INCHES
OF RAIN ON AUGUST 24, WHICH WAS THE FIFTH WETTEST CALENDAR DAY ON RECORD.
 
 
 
 
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Not unusual for a sheared TS to have convective bursts. Mid-level shear brings low theta-e air over a moist high theta-e boundary layer, causing convective instability to increase. A convective burst results. The burst can last a few hours, but often results in low theta-e air being dispersed into the boundary layer through downdrafts/microbursts (from the mid-level dry air), stabilizing it. The convection weakens and disappears. Over several hours, the boundary layer recovers and another burst ensues. This can continue so long as there's enough convergence and lift from the old vortex to initiate convection and as long as instability can be regenerated.

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So much wrong with this I don't even know where to begin. This statement in particular:

 

"This event is absolutely baffling, and my fellow meteorologists and I are struggling to theorize what just happened."

 

There is absolutely no way any senior met would make such a statement. People will make up lies about anything these days. 🤪

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30 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

So much wrong with this I don't even know where to begin.

:yikes: That was hard to read through, cringing the whole way and then what sealed it was the ever annoying "We have dodged a huge, huge bullet" line...ugh!! That utterly stupid cliche triggers me each time. I read your post here days ago explaining what would happen to Lane and what did transpire.

Quote

I am now frantically going back through satellite data and saving GOES-15 imagery at 15-minute intervals for the last 36 hours to archive each frame for further analysis.

A senior military meteorologist said this? :lol: Doubtful...

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It’s called vertical wind shear, not just moderate shear, but borderline strong.

This isn’t that unusual at all. Especially when higher terrain comes into play. We’ve seen this before as storms interact with Hispanolia and Cuba. No doubt the higher terrain on the big island accelerated the process.

Things are slowly coming back to normal here. Most of the resort services are reopening today and we’re hopeful that the rain stays on the Windward side allowing us to salvage the afternoon at the pool. Right now it’s cloudy, but it clearly rained some overnight as the ground and trees are wet. The wind has decreased to a stiff breeze and the only damage I’ve seen has been to palm trees. 

The extreme rainfall on the big island is the main story, and Maui and surrounding islands still received impacts. As far as Oahu is concerned, the impacts here have been minimal and many people are feeling as though this was a huge bust. 

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Yesterday's 18z GFS (0 hour) area-averaged sounding, showing 53 kt of shear (850mb - 200mb) over Lane. Area-averaged soundings are possible by clicking and dragging on TropicalTidbits.com. So it seems reasonable to say that 40 kt to 50 kt of shear (up to 200mb) detroyed the hurricane core.

 

wIMwaFG.png

 

 

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49 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Outside of the flooding rains on the big island which was well modeled, this was an historic bust

Not particularly, this rapid weakening was well modelled, and while there were hurricane warnings issued(particularly if the storm remained intact longer). The main impact from this storm was never wind nor was the core ever expected to make landfall in the official CPHC forecast. With this being said, the CPHC definitely has some work to do in analyzing intensity.

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