Wmsptwx Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 Think it's mix of weakening paired with lack of great radar looks 949 though...legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Gonna need that center to get within 50 miles of the coast to see any kind of real hurricane type winds....rains on the other hand will be biblical for some. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW. This buoy got very close to if not actually in the eye based on the winds profile and only gusted to 107 mph. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=51002 this sure looks like it took the eye to me winds went from gusting from 93 knts to 5 knts, pressure bottomed out at 956 MB 08 23 11:10 am WSW 3.9 23.3 - - - - 28.50 - - - - - - - 08 23 11:00 am WSW 3.9 15.5 - - - - 28.45 -0.42 - - - - - - 08 23 10:50 am WSW 1.9 11.7 17.1 10 7.6 NNE 28.41 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:40 am WSW 1.9 5.8 17.1 - 7.6 NNE 28.36 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:30 am W 1.9 5.8 - - - - 28.34 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:20 am W 1.9 7.8 - - - - 28.31 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:10 am W 1.9 5.8 - - - - 28.27 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:00 am WNW 3.9 5.8 - - - - 28.26 -0.87 - - - - - - 08 23 9:50 am WNW 1.9 5.8 25.6 10 8.2 NNE 28.25 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:40 am NW 1.9 9.7 25.6 - 8.2 NNE 28.27 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:30 am NW 5.8 21.4 - - - - 28.25 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:20 am NNW 9.7 36.9 - - - - 28.30 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:10 am NNW 25.3 44.7 - - - - 28.34 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:00 am N 38.9 60.2 - - - - 28.35 -0.96 - - - - - - 08 23 8:50 am NNW 48.6 56.3 31.8 11 8.2 ENE 28.37 - - - - - - - 08 23 8:40 am NNW 58.3 85.5 - - - - 28.45 - - - - - - - 08 23 8:30 am N 62.2 93.2 - - - - 28.60 - - - - - - - 08 23 8:20 am NNW 71.9 91.3 - - - - 28.64 - - My main concern right now is flash flooding from the runoff coming down the mountain, not so much the wind, although even gusts to hurricane force will do damage here. Many of the homes are poorly built and on the mountainside. The lobby of our resort is only protected by a straw roof. It’s thick and well made, but it’s still grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Gonna need that center to get within 50 miles of the coast to see any kind of real hurricane type winds....rains on the other hand will be biblical for some. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW. This buoy got very close to if not actually in the eye based on the winds profile and only gusted to 107 mph. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=51002 this sure looks like it took the eye to me winds went from gusting from 93 knts to 5 knts, pressure bottomed out at 956 MB 08 23 11:10 am WSW 3.9 23.3 - - - - 28.50 - - - - - - - 08 23 11:00 am WSW 3.9 15.5 - - - - 28.45 -0.42 - - - - - - 08 23 10:50 am WSW 1.9 11.7 17.1 10 7.6 NNE 28.41 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:40 am WSW 1.9 5.8 17.1 - 7.6 NNE 28.36 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:30 am W 1.9 5.8 - - - - 28.34 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:20 am W 1.9 7.8 - - - - 28.31 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:10 am W 1.9 5.8 - - - - 28.27 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:00 am WNW 3.9 5.8 - - - - 28.26 -0.87 - - - - - - 08 23 9:50 am WNW 1.9 5.8 25.6 10 8.2 NNE 28.25 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:40 am NW 1.9 9.7 25.6 - 8.2 NNE 28.27 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:30 am NW 5.8 21.4 - - - - 28.25 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:20 am NNW 9.7 36.9 - - - - 28.30 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:10 am NNW 25.3 44.7 - - - - 28.34 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:00 am N 38.9 60.2 - - - - 28.35 -0.96 - - - - - - 08 23 8:50 am NNW 48.6 56.3 31.8 11 8.2 ENE 28.37 - - - - - - - 08 23 8:40 am NNW 58.3 85.5 - - - - 28.45 - - - - - - - 08 23 8:30 am N 62.2 93.2 - - - - 28.60 - - - - - - - 08 23 8:20 am NNW 71.9 91.3 - - - - 28.64 - - The bouys have a hard time accurately measuring wind speeds due to the fact that they spend so much time down in the troughs of the waves and the sea spray present in the air. It’s possible the winds were much stronger. The biggest take home from the obs is that as expected the southern part of the circulation is much weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 Latest IR loop shows that the shear has really elongated the circulation now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 I think the moisture is also being squeezed out over the big island and Maui. That probably changes as the circulation gets closer Check out those echoes on east side of the big island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Heading to bed but here's one more radar image of Lane. Good luck to those out there. Thanks, that image shows that the eyewall still looks to be mostly intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think the moisture is also being squeezed out over the big island and Maui. That probably changes as the circulation gets closer Check out those echoes on east side of the big island. Yeah for over 24 hours now. Just thought there would be more over the open ocean away from the influence of the big island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 The wind seems to be shifting a bit now, out of the ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 5pm out, down to 120mph and 959mb, pressure seems high given buoy observation. Also hurricane warning for the big island has been downgraded to a TS warning. No other changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 The rain is coming almost due North now off the ocean and the radar is filling in some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 Winds now out of the southeast and rain showers look as if they dried up again. It does seem like some of the drier solutions may end up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 Looks like the 00z GFS came West just a bit. Now passes between Maui and Ohau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Winds now out of the southeast and rain showers look as if they dried up again. It does seem like some of the drier solutions may end up verifying. That’s what I was saying earlier. The models don’t really show any significant rain for a while. Where are you at getting SE winds? Still NE here and definitely picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 1 minute ago, metalicwx366 said: That’s what I was saying earlier. The models don’t really show any significant rain for a while. Wind has really picked up here. The grass/straw roof on the lobby is starting to take some minor damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 The insane thing about this system is, even though we're in the age of modern meteorology, it's basically a 50/50 shot at landfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catdaddyfalcon15 Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The insane thing about this system is, even though we're in the age of modern meteorology, it's basically a 50/50 shot at landfall gotta love weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 Lol the 0Z CMC keeps this storm well to the south of us. Models still can’t agree when we are 24 hours from potential landfall. Just had a gust up to 38MPH otherwise nothing too crazy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 East side of big island is getting just crushed with +RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: East side of big island is getting just crushed with +RA. Is this going to push the area into a FFE/PDS situation? Sounds like we're heading for that ugh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 Just now, stockmanjr said: Is this going to push the area into a FFE/PDS situation? Sounds like we're heading for that ugh.... That's definitely beyond my expertise, but it can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 35 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said: Lol the 0Z CMC keeps this storm well to the south of us. Models still can’t agree when we are 24 hours from potential landfall. Just had a gust up to 38MPH otherwise nothing too crazy right now. The stronger gusts here have been intermittent but we’ve definitively had a few over 40 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 There’s an absolutely beautiful sunset here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 Beautiful view from my balcony as the sun sets on Oahu 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 As the sunset fades, you can see some of the rain falling way out in the distance that’s currently between here and Kauai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 Newest track fix in has Lane moving due north, eastern models might sadly verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Newest track fix in has Lane moving due north, eastern models might sadly verify Still think the center remains offshore but I figured I’d get within 50 miles of the center. Somewhere near where the edge of the stronger TS winds are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 New deep convection is firing near the center and the latest IR loop shows just how vigorous the circulation still is. Yes it’s being slowly sheared apart, but the core is still largely intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 31.21" so far on the Big Island. Preliminary storm totals from Big Island: Hakalau Station 31.21", Waikea Experimental Station 23.67". #HurricaneLane #HIwx 3:58 AM - 24 Aug 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 be safe,,,,,X85,,,,,,thoughts go out to all who are in your situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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