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Hurricane Lane impacts Hawaii


NJwx85
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40 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I disagree. The windward side of Kaua’i for example is the wettest place on earth. I have been on Oahu when it rained 6”+ in 12 hours and the only issues were puddles and the ocean turning brown. Tropical islands with steep topography are accustomed to big rain. The islands are made out of volcanic rock which is hard and stays in place. Soils are also thin. 

I’m sure there will be some isolated flood damage and some power outages. But I think the media is over hyping this one after Maria and  PR last year. 

Nah, I have to disagree with this. This was earlier this year from 3-5 inches of rain in a couple of hours. 

 

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1 minute ago, metalicwx366 said:

Nah, I have to disagree with this. This was earlier this year from 3-5 inches of rain in a couple of hours. 

 

I figured. Anyone that thinks flash flooding won’t be an issue here doesn’t realize that all that volcanic rock only increases runoff.

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42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro looks like it has been doing pretty well on track error so far.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ep142018/

mae.thumb.png.f7aefb4e5d6d109e3e259a7e2187ff56.png

The problem with this graph is the Euro has been bad at the time where it matters most. Euro has shifted from it's solution of keeping Lane a good distance from landfall to the near landfall solution the GFS has been showing for days.

It has gone from this...

ecmwf_z500_mslp_cpac_8.png

 

To this...

ecmwf_z500_mslp_cpac_6.png

 

Compared with the GFS 120 hour forecast (and many others with similar results)

gfs_z500_mslp_cpac_21.png

To this for the Euro now in agreement with the GFS... that's pretty bad performance if you ask me, especially since it's at a critical time where people are at a higher risk.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_cpac_3.png

 

In summary I would say those statistics are pretty meaningless in this scenario since the Euro has consistently been to the south/west of the actual track whereas the GFS has by and large been ahead of the game with picking up the Hawaii threat whereas the Euro just caught on to this recently.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

954 mb and just outside eyewall. Eye may be filled with mid-level cloud debris but it is definitely still intense.

Might not be intensifying, but it’s winning the battle right now against the shear and holding its own. The improvement in presentation in the last 6 hours is a bit disheartening for me.

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Noticeabley windier here the last hour or so, still saying sustained at 14mph but we’re frequently gusting to 30+. You can see the difference on the ocean with 2-4’ swells now hitting the protective wall. Still nothing significant but trending in that direction.

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Latest advisory said 115kts could be conservative. Confidence is still well below normal. Cloud tops seem to be warming in the northern semi circle and the presentation overall isn’t as good as it was a couple hours ago. Not really seeing any reasons for this.

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

The eyewall looks like it is starting to take on a tilted vortex appearance from SSW to NNE in the directional flow of impeding shear. The CDO also appears to be elongating in that direction as well. This just might be the beginning of faster paced weakening.

It’s funny, as more time goes on, the weather weenie in me wants this to be at least a 2 by the time it gets here. Probably a once in a life time experience of being in the right place at the right time. If this was Florida, we would have probably left.

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