NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said: My phone just sounded off really loudly. Didn’t even receive a notification. For some reason it’s been really spotty. For example when the watch was issued, we heard phones go off, mine didn’t. Now with the warning, mine went off and my Wife’s didn’t. We have the same provider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 GFS is back to hitting the big island. Yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Does anyone have rainfall data for the 18z HWRF? Looks like a possible landfall right near PHNL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is back to hitting the big island. Yeesh. I’m tossing, agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I’m tossing, agree? Well it's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Regardless of if it landfalls or not, 20"+ of rain on those mountainous islands is no joke. Likely to be the most impactful hurricane since Iniki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Regardless of if it landfalls or not, 20"+ of rain on those mountainous islands is no joke. Likely to be the most impactful hurricane since Iniki. And unlike most mountains, these don’t have much vegitation to stop the flow, might as well be rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Does anyone have rainfall data for the 18z HWRF? Looks like a possible landfall right near PHNL Nope. Takes it basically on the same path as the latest GFS and GALWEM model runs. So much uncertainty/model disagreement 24 hours out from the event. We basically just went with the westward track and discounted all the models that show this getting sucked up into the big island or Maui, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: ERC? Eye looks to be diminishing on IR yet still prominent on visible. It isn't undergoing ERC right now. Wind shear seems to be biggest factor in its degraded appearance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Turns out since my resort is newer, it’s built up to all the latest hurricane codes. Unfortunately anything more than about ten years old is mostly not, since hurricane strikes are so rare here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 00z ECMWF is pretty much in line with 5pm CPHC track, maybe even slightly West. Great in terms of keeping the core mostly offshore, bad in terms of rain and duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 The 6z HWRF is a landfall in Oahu in 36 hrs as major.... Largely on its own, with only a few members of EPS hinting at this potential. That said still significant track/intensity uncertainty with Lane over next 48 hr. Part of this, I presume has to do with the development of another weak tropical disturbance to his east. The euro has this disturbance develop into a weak TS and head towards the big island. I would think —all else being equal —-that could cause Lane to track more north, than west. Imo it also helps explain the significant divergence (split) in modeled tracks over the next 24 hr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: 00z ECMWF is pretty much in line with 5pm CPHC track, maybe even slightly West. Great in terms of keeping the core mostly offshore, bad in terms of rain and duration. If I were you I’d pat myself on the back for timing a big hurricane to experience while commiserating with your wife about what bad timing.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 54 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The 6z HWRF is a landfall in Oahu in 36 hrs as major.... Largely on its own, with only a few members of EPS hinting at this potential. That said still significant track/intensity uncertainty with Lane over next 48 hr. Part of this, I presume has to do with the development of another weak tropical disturbance to his east. The euro has this disturbance develop into a weak TS and head towards the big island. I would think —all else being equal —-that could cause Lane to track more north, than west. Imo it also helps explain the significant divergence (split) in modeled tracks over the next 24 hr.... Correction, this run has landfall on Lanai and then Molokai as Major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Regarding Rainfall. Hilo has had 9.92" in the last 18 hours. Radar looks to continue to hammer that area in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Regarding Rainfall. Hilo has had 9.92" in the last 18 hours. Radar looks to continue to hammer that area in the coming hours. Rainfall totals like this probably happen there once a year (Hilo is one of the rainiest cities in the US). Hopefully this means the soil/infrastructure/ground substructure can handle what's to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 I haven't read the whole thread, but just an FYI that the Univ. of Hawaii runs their own version of the WRF-ARW. http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Faculty/wrf/arw/arw_state_6km.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Good morning from Ohau. Woke up this morning to find overcast skies with even a few breaks. The cloud deck is mostly high to mid level, and the ocean still appears calm. It’s breezy, but nothing significant yet. There have been a few gusts close to 40mph. Found out last night that this place was built to handle a direct hit from a cat 3 hurricane, so I feel a lot safer about the situation. The locals are a different story. We’re trying to salvage the morning at the pool, but the radar indicates it’s already raining near Wikiki. I’ll continue to update as much as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Good morning from Ohau. Woke up this morning to find overcast skies with even a few breaks. The cloud deck is mostly high to mid level, and the ocean still appears calm. It’s breezy, but nothing significant yet. There have been a few gusts close to 40mph. Found out last night that this place was built to handle a direct hit from a cat 3 hurricane, so I feel a lot safer about the situation. The locals are a different story. We’re trying to salvage the morning at the pool, but the radar indicates it’s already raining near Wikiki. I’ll continue to update as much as I can. Yea man, i told you, those hotels are built like fortresses. You should just sit back and enjoy. Eat some delicious pineapple, the Hawaiian bacon and ham, and some conkfish and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yea man, i told you, those hotels are built like fortresses. You should just sit back and enjoy. Eat some delicious pineapple, the Hawaiian bacon and ham, and some conkfish and relax. Well it’s funny, our hotel is built like that. The Four Seasons and Marriott next door might be too. All those old hotels in Wikiki are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Flooding and landslides are going to be a huge deal when all is said in done, particularly since the storm is going to rake the entire chain with the NE quadrant. I think this is going to get pretty bad out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Lane is looking better on latest IR loop. Outflow is a bit less restricted in the SW quadrant and the entire CDO is more symmetrical with an eye a bit more pronounced and deep convection still present in all four quadrants. It’s being sheared, but at some point if a more Northerly track ensued, wouldn’t that actually help ventilate the storm instead of shearing it apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 12z Euro is really tucked in. Big shift east and north from the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 the gfs the best tropical model on lane the worst the euro.. what a embarrassment for the euro so out of touch with reality on hurricane lane.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: It has another 35" of rain on top of what as already fallen on the big island. track was wrong even before lane central the central pacific it finally caved to most other guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 23 minutes ago, bugalou said: Flooding and landslides are going to be a huge deal when all is said in done, particularly since the storm is going to rake the entire chain with the NE quadrant. I think this is going to get pretty bad out there. I disagree. The windward side of Kaua’i for example is the wettest place on earth. I have been on Oahu when it rained 6”+ in 12 hours and the only issues were puddles and the ocean turning brown. Tropical islands with steep topography are accustomed to big rain. The islands are made out of volcanic rock which is hard and stays in place. Soils are also thin. I’m sure there will be some isolated flood damage and some power outages. But I think the media is over hyping this one after Maria and PR last year. I actually heard on the radio in NYC today “the hurricane is expected to make landfall as a cat 3 later today”. Landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 lane holding it's own or looking better on infrared... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I disagree. The windward side of Kaua’i for example is the wettest place on earth. I have been on Oahu when it rained 6”+ in 12 hours and the only issues were puddles and the ocean turning brown. Tropical islands with steep topography are accustomed to big rain. The islands are made out of volcanic rock which is hard and stays in place. Soils are also thin. I’m sure there will be some isolated flood damage and some power outages. But I think the media is over hyping this one after Maria and PR last year. I actually heard on the radio in NYC today “the hurricane is expected to make landfall as a cat 3 later today”. Landfall? isolated flood damage? that will be the under statement of the year.. 3 to 5 inches of rain earlier this year in a short period of time in honolulu wreaked havoc... imagine when this storm is over how much rain will fall on the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 The difference in position on the Euro from 0Z @ 60 vs 12Z @ 48 is 260 km. That's a pretty big shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 time to ban all nyc weenies from this thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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