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Winter 2018-2019 Talk


MJO812
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41 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Farmers Almanac says cold and snowy for the northeast while the old farmers almanac says warm and wet .

As much as I like that we all know the Farmers Almanac is more for entertainment purposes then anything else but occasionally they make a score. From everything I have seen so far signs point towards a colder/snowier winter in our region but its still to early to get into specifics and alot can change this far out but I am liking where things seem to be headed.

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if a weak el nino develops the farmers almanac will be right...if a strong el nino develops the old farmers almanac will be right...if a neutral winter develops they both will be wrong...the current streak of winters with at least 30" of snow and a 9" snowfall is five...six with a 9 inch or more...does the streak continue of break?...in August I'm always on the cold and snowy train until reality hits...the reality could be another above normal snow season with normal temperatures...

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3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Weak El Nino's are usually great for our area especially if it's west based

I think all signs point to a very active winter, I don't see the AN snowfall pattern we're in going away. 

And as we've seen many times, the winter doesn't even have to be cold for us to get the snows though it's more likely than not that this will be a colder season. 

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On 8/17/2018 at 6:27 AM, TriPol said:

We need some 12+" snowstorms. With the exception of 2015 and 2010, it's been a decade of smaller to medium storms. We need some actual storms that are predicted to drop more than 12" to actually do so.

I had 2 12”+ storms last winter as did most east and far NW of the city

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On 8/17/2018 at 6:27 AM, TriPol said:

We need some 12+" snowstorms. With the exception of 2015 and 2010, it's been a decade of smaller to medium storms. We need some actual storms that are predicted to drop more than 12" to actually do so.

January 2016...it melted so fast it's hard to remember...

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these are the years Since 1960 that had a snowfall 9" or more in Central Park......12" storms added...

year............9" storms...12" storms...

1959-60.....2....................2

1960-61.....3....................2

1963-64.....1....................1

1966-67.....2....................1

1968-69.....1....................1

1977-78.....2....................2

1978-79.....1....................1

1981-82.....1....................0

1982-83.....1....................1

1992-93.....1....................0

1993-94.....2....................1

1994-95.....1....................0

1995-96.....2....................1

2000-01.....1....................1

2002-03.....1....................1

2003-04.....2....................1

2004-05.....1....................1

2005-06.....1....................1

2009-10.....3....................1

2010-11.....3....................2

2012-13.....1....................0

2013-14.....2....................1

2014-15.....1....................0

2015-16.....1....................1

2016-17.....1....................0

2017-18.....1....................0

9" storms...

1960's........5 years.....9 storms...

1970's........2 years.....3 storms...

1980's........2 years.....2 storms...

1990's........4 years.....6 storms...

2000's........5 years.....6 storms...

2010's........8 years.....13 storms...

12" storms...

1960's........5 years.....7 storms...

1970's........2 years.....3 storms,,,

1980's........1 year.......1 storm...

1990's........2 years.....2 storms...

2000's........5 years.....5 storms...

2010's........4 years.....5 storms...

 

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18 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Little help guys ,,,,didn't we have El nino the past 2 years ? Or am I wrong ? I honestly was not aware that they could be weak or moderate or anything else,,,,can someone explain it SIMPLY if possible for US who are less informed? Thanks

No it was a weak La Niña last winter and a near neutral the winter before, perhaps a very weak La Niña early in 16-17.  Well ahead of last winter there was some belief a weak El Niño might develop but by May or June of 2017 it was evident that possibility was over.  Neither winter really behaved as expected.  The near neutral 16-17 behaved very much like a raging El Niño or raging La Niña in December which most blamed on either the MJO or a lag effect of the strong El Niño.  17-18 more resembled a weak El Niño at times with a fairly snowy winter in the south and Tennessee valley.  About the only guarantee I have right now is mid October into early November will be cooler than normal and then mid to late November will flip which seems to occur most of the time in any El Niño.  The question always is what happen after 12/5.  The better El Niño years will flip cold again around that time while the bad ones never do 

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48 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

No it was a weak La Niña last winter and a near neutral the winter before, perhaps a very weak La Niña early in 16-17.  Well ahead of last winter there was some belief a weak El Niño might develop but by May or June of 2017 it was evident that possibility was over.  Neither winter really behaved as expected.  The near neutral 16-17 behaved very much like a raging El Niño or raging La Niña in December which most blamed on either the MJO or a lag effect of the strong El Niño.  17-18 more resembled a weak El Niño at times with a fairly snowy winter in the south and Tennessee valley.  About the only guarantee I have right now is mid October into early November will be cooler than normal and then mid to late November will flip which seems to occur most of the time in any El Niño.  The question always is what happen after 12/5.  The better El Niño years will flip cold again around that time while the bad ones never do 

Much appreciated SnowGoose,,,,,Thank You

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How about a contest to predict the next BN month in these parts?

April is our last memory of a BN month, and the  CFS does not even hint at one right now for the next 9 months, for a total of 13 straight.   Surely this must be wrong!

I was going to choose Feb. myself, maybe a SSW in Jan. will kickstart things.   But the populated areas in the NH, as shown on the monthly summaries, seem Normal or Above with little blue ever showing.   

 

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there have been a few weak el nino winters with very little snow so the other indices have to cooperate...even with most of the indices favorable snowfall could be light...40" snowfall seasons were rare before the 1994...now even with record February warmth and a positive ao and nao NYC still managed to pick up above normal snowfall...all good things come to an end and a winter like 2001-02 can happen again...hopefully not this year...

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my fantasy winter weekly......

Nov. 18-24.......1989.....5" on the 23rd...

Nov. 25-Dec 1 1967.....3" on 11/30.....

Dec. 2-8...........2003.....14" on 12/6-7th...

Dec. 9-15.........1960.....blizzard on the 11-12th...

Dec. 16-22.......1948.....16" storm on the 19-20th...

Dec. 23-29.......1947.....26" of snow 12/26th......settle for 2010

Dec. 30-Jan. 5 2018.....10" blizzard on the 4th.......

Jan. 6-12.........1996.....20" blizzard 1/7-8...

Jan. 13-19.......1964.....13" blizzard 1/13.....

Jan. 20-26.......2016.....27" blizzard 1/24...

Jan. 27-Feb. 2 2011.....19" storm on the 26-27th

Feb. 3-9...........1961.....18" storm on the 3rd-4th...settle for 1978...

Feb. 10-16.......2006.....27" storm 11-12th.....settle for 1983...

Feb. 17-23.......2003.....19" storm on the 16-17th...

Feb. 24-Mar 2 2010......21" storm on the 25-26th...

Mar. 3-9...........1960......15" blizzard on the 3-4th...

Mar. 10-16......1993.......10" snow/sleet/rain on the 13th...record cold...

Mar. 17-23......1956.......12" storm on the 19-20th...

Mar. 24-30......1984.......3" slush on the 28-29th...settle for 1970...

Mar. 31-Apr 6 1982.......10" blizzard on the 6th...

Apr. 7-13.........2003.......4-7" on the 7th...

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8 hours ago, uncle W said:

my fantasy winter weekly......

Nov. 18-24.......1989.....5" on the 23rd...

Nov. 25-Dec 1 1967.....3" on 11/30.....

Dec. 2-8...........2003.....14" on 12/6-7th...

Dec. 9-15.........1960.....blizzard on the 11-12th...

Dec. 16-22.......1948.....16" storm on the 19-20th...

Dec. 23-29.......1947.....26" of snow 12/26th......settle for 2010

Dec. 30-Jan. 5 2018.....10" blizzard on the 4th.......

Jan. 6-12.........1996.....20" blizzard 1/7-8...

Jan. 13-19.......1964.....13" blizzard 1/13.....

Jan. 20-26.......2016.....27" blizzard 1/24...

Jan. 27-Feb. 2 2011.....19" storm on the 26-27th

Feb. 3-9...........1961.....18" storm on the 3rd-4th...settle for 1978...

Feb. 10-16.......2006.....27" storm 11-12th.....settle for 1983...

Feb. 17-23.......2003.....19" storm on the 16-17th...

Feb. 24-Mar 2 2010......21" storm on the 25-26th...

Mar. 3-9...........1960......15" blizzard on the 3-4th...

Mar. 10-16......1993.......10" snow/sleet/rain on the 13th...record cold...

Mar. 17-23......1956.......12" storm on the 19-20th...

Mar. 24-30......1984.......3" slush on the 28-29th...settle for 1970...

Mar. 31-Apr 6 1982.......10" blizzard on the 6th...

Apr. 7-13.........2003.......4-7" on the 7th...

In one season that would be over 300 inches of snow. Considering Central Park measurement accuracy it would probably be over 400 inches.

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On 8/23/2018 at 5:58 PM, CIK62 said:

How about a contest to predict the next BN month in these parts?

April is our last memory of a BN month, and the  CFS does not even hint at one right now for the next 9 months, for a total of 13 straight.   Surely this must be wrong!

I was going to choose Feb. myself, maybe a SSW in Jan. will kickstart things.   But the populated areas in the NH, as shown on the monthly summaries, seem Normal or Above with little blue ever showing.   

 

13 straight isn't even anywhere close to our stretch of 20 months AN at KHPN from March 2011 to October 2012, so it is possible.

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