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Winter 2018/2019 Professional Met Forecasts


ChescoWx
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I will post Professional Meteorologists Winter Forecasts here for those interested.

To start off Weatherbell sent client forecasts last week and hit us professional subscribers with their forecast (not a probability forecast) today.  They see an early start and a cold and stormy winter for our local area. Temperature forecasts for the area are 3 degrees below normal temperatures with more than 133% of normal seasonal snow.

Paul

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Early thoughts from Paul Pastelok of AccuWx -- leaning towards a hybrid El Nino (east/central based) with a +NAO. Let's hope that doesn't pan out cause that won't get it done for us.

(Although it's hard to bet against a +NAO, seems like it's been years since we've had a sustained Atlantic block in the winter months.)

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/14/2018 at 9:54 AM, JTA66 said:

Early thoughts from Paul Pastelok of AccuWx -- leaning towards a hybrid El Nino (east/central based) with a +NAO. Let's hope that doesn't pan out cause that won't get it done for us.

(Although it's hard to bet against a +NAO, seems like it's been years since we've had a sustained Atlantic block in the winter months.)

I've seen a few forecasts throwing around the idea of Modoki El Nino. Note sure what that means for our situation. Ill have to review the analogs sometime. 

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On ‎8‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 2:09 PM, ChescoPaWxman said:

I will post Professional Meteorologists Winter Forecasts here for those interested.

To start off Weatherbell sent client forecasts last week and hit us professional subscribers with their forecast (not a probability forecast) today.  They see an early start and a cold and stormy winter for our local area. Temperature forecasts for the area are 3 degrees below normal temperatures with more than 133% of normal seasonal snow.

Paul

When was the last winter that averaged 3 degrees below normal in your area?

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15 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

When was the last winter that averaged 3 degrees below normal in your area?

Hi Great Snow - just 3 years ago the winter of 2015/16 was much colder than only 3 degrees below normal. In that winter we experienced the following departures from normal for the winter months

December +2.6 / January -3.6 / February -11.1 and March -5.2 

so much colder than a -3 departure.

Let me know if you need any more info 

Thanks!
Paul

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 9/25/2018 at 3:20 PM, JTA66 said:

Quick update from Accuwx -- looks like near/slightly above normal temp with near normal precip. Winter starts warm and wet, finishes cold & snowy for our region.

More of a month-to-month breakdown to come.  

This is a horrible type of winter...it should be the other way around. So I guess we''ll have 60s and T-storms for Christmas.

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On 9/29/2018 at 1:01 PM, Birds~69 said:

This is a horrible type of winter...it should be the other way around. So I guess we''ll have 60s and T-storms for Christmas.

Yeah, we're about due for a 70F Christmas Day. Anyway, some additional updates from Accuwx (wish I had better news to share)...

Oct-Dec -- Temps +2F or greater. Back and forth mild/chilly. High overnight mins will continue to be a factor.

Dec -- More of a zonal pattern. Near normal precip, temps could average 3-5F above normal.

Jan -- Coldest air still to our west, but could occasionally work into the pattern. Not much blocking (what else is new?) but some amplification. Could be one or two big snow events.

Feb -- Temps 2-3F below average. Most analogs feature a big Feb snow event. Speaking of analogs ...

1986/87 -- Good winter here, I'd take this in a heartbeat!

1994/1995 -- Other than one storm in Feb '95, not much of a winter.

2006/07 -- Seems everyone has this year as an analog. I will say, this summer was very reminiscent to 2006 -- warm and wet. I think we had snow in Dec 2006, then winter took a long break until mid Feb with a sleet storm. Then another sleet storm in mid March 2007.

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2 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Yeah, we're about due for a 70F Christmas Day. Anyway, some additional updates from Accuwx (wish I had better news to share)...

Oct-Dec -- Temps +2F or greater. Back and forth mild/chilly. High overnight mins will continue to be a factor.

Dec -- More of a zonal pattern. Near normal precip, temps could average 3-5F above normal.

Jan -- Coldest air still to our west, but could occasionally work into the pattern. Not much blocking (what else is new?) but some amplification. Could be one or two big snow events.

Feb -- Temps 2-3F below average. Most analogs feature a big Feb snow event. Speaking of analogs ...

1986/87 -- Good winter here, I'd take this in a heartbeat!

1994/1995 -- Other than one storm in Feb '95, not much of a winter.

2006/07 -- Seems everyone has this year as an analog. I will say, this summer was very reminiscent to 2006 -- warm and wet. I think we had snow in Dec 2006, then winter took a long break until mid Feb with a sleet storm. Then another sleet storm in mid March 2007.

This year has been so wacky....I don't what to think. F'en 80's in Oct and probably snow/sleet/fz rain for halloween....I'll make my mind up mid/late Nov.

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Latest Weatherbell update this week for winter forecast stays the course with below normal temps and above average snowfall. Analog years used are the following with East Nantmeal snow totals -analog average projection is 58.2" of snow

2002-3 - 62.6"

2006-7 - 25.3"

2009-10 - 86.6"

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2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Latest Weatherbell update this week for winter forecast stays the course with below normal temps and above average snowfall. Analog years used are the following with East Nantmeal snow totals -analog average projection is 58.2" of snow

2002-3 - 62.6"

2006-7 - 25.3"

2009-10 - 86.6"

All three were El Nino years, but it's interesting how different the summers were.

2002--hot and dry

2006--warm and wet

2009--cool

Just goes to show you can never broad stroke and say "El Nino = X" or "a -NAO = Y".

All in all I feel good about this upcoming winter. Not saying it's going to be a blockbuster (although with El Nino, there's always that chance). But I don't think it's going to be a dud either. (Hope I didn't just jinx us!)

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On 10/6/2018 at 1:13 PM, JTA66 said:

All three were El Nino years, but it's interesting how different the summers were.

2002--hot and dry

2006--warm and wet

2009--cool

Just goes to show you can never broad stroke and say "El Nino = X" or "a -NAO = Y".

All in all I feel good about this upcoming winter. Not saying it's going to be a blockbuster (although with El Nino, there's always that chance). But I don't think it's going to be a dud either. (Hope I didn't just jinx us!)

Those are some big money winters there. I believe 06-07 was good in the Poconos.  Looks like Modoki El Nino holding serve for now.cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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From Paul Dorian with Perspecta, Inc.

"It looks like a cold and snowy winter for much of the eastern half of the nation"

https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/10/11/2018-2019-winter-outlooklooks-like-a-cold-and-snowy-winter 

Meteorologist Paul Dorian with Perspecta, Inc.

 

 

 
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  • 2 weeks later...

Leaning heavily 1991-1992 analogue for the upcoming winter for the area (tho not completely 100% identical but several characteristics as well as some other lesser  analogue years blended in 1958-59/1979-80). Details to follow.

Eta: Favoring a decent interior (N and W burbs potentially 'far' N and W burbs) winter with less than stellar of a winter S and E. Significant positive SD of SSTs off the Mid Atl and NE Coast, Gulf Stream location anomaly 75-125 miles to the W of normal sea current position, and WAR displacement likely will impact precip types significantly when the larger El Nino (weak but increasing) driven storms move thru. Storm track nearer the coastline this year aka 'tucked'. Thinking sleet will be more of a feature this year far SE PA. DJF temps Philly proper N to slightly AN with DJF snowfall BN. N and W of there  temps near normal especially farther N and W with snowfall BN NW thru about KDYL but quickly transitioning to N tk the NW of there and AN far NW burbs. March is a question mark BUT history and analogues say we likely wont be shut out completely late-season.

Apologies if breakdown is vague I'm not good with making maps but those are my general thoughts/ideas.

Factors that could cause this to bust or features to keep an eye on that could shift this around are the EPO which has been raging in recent years.....has allowed for colder air filtering in BUT has also generally kept things progressive as the Atl side hasn't worked out. With that said, the other factor to watch is the position of the WAR and how it influences OR retorgrades into any sort of NAO neg anomaly and blocking. 

 

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8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just realized the title of the thread is "pro" forecasts. I apologize in advance if my outlook doesn't belong here. Feel free to move or delete as necessary. Thanks.

Yo Ralph, welcome back from your summer cave!

"Pro" or "people who know what they're talking about"....doesn't really matter either way IMO. I don't think there are any mods in this forum to move/delete...we are self-reliant.  

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14 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Yo Ralph, welcome back from your summer cave!

"Pro" or "people who know what they're talking about"....doesn't really matter either way IMO. I don't think there are any mods in this forum to move/delete...we are self-reliant.  

Thanks neighbor, good to be back.....it's a good feeling to know it's approaching "that time of the year".

Wish I could have provided a better outlook for snow lovers in extreme SE PA. I generally don't glance at other outlooks as sometimes that causes a bias so Im not sure how this fits what others are thinking. It's like my surf fishing hobby.....I don't read reports from others, I prefer making my own reports :-) 

Neither of the 3 analogs that I am using were particularly snowy in Philly proper. I didn't delve into how they fared N and W of PHL in those years but other data I am utilizing suggests farther interior away from the city will have a good winter with a fairly sharp dropoff from say Doylestown on South and East. This year will likely feature less of a sharp cut and dry rain/snow line than we have 'generally' seen in recent seasons with more of an expanse of sleet/mix zones in between so I am feeling those types (ip) will be more of a factor than usual for some. Again though, the N Atl blocking (or lack thereof) and EPO are what will prove to be the wild card. Im not too gung-ho on the N Atl blocking setting up in favorable spots for any prolonged period basing this again off of analogs and recent oscillation activity. WAR will likely be our enemy. BUT, it only takes ONE El-Nino driven coastal to bust my thinking. 

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On 10/21/2018 at 5:35 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Leaning heavily 1991-1992 analogue for the upcoming winter for the area (tho not completely 100% identical but several characteristics as well as some other lesser  analogue years blended in 1958-59/1979-80). Details to follow.

Eta: Favoring a decent interior (N and W burbs potentially 'far' N and W burbs) winter with less than stellar of a winter S and E. Significant positive SD of SSTs off the Mid Atl and NE Coast, Gulf Stream location anomaly 75-125 miles to the W of normal sea current position, and WAR displacement likely will impact precip types significantly when the larger El Nino (weak but increasing) driven storms move thru. Storm track nearer the coastline this year aka 'tucked'. Thinking sleet will be more of a feature this year far SE PA. DJF temps Philly proper N to slightly AN with DJF snowfall BN. N and W of there  temps near normal especially farther N and W with snowfall BN NW thru about KDYL but quickly transitioning to N tk the NW of there and AN far NW burbs. March is a question mark BUT history and analogues say we likely wont be shut out completely late-season.

Apologies if breakdown is vague I'm not good with making maps but those are my general thoughts/ideas.

Factors that could cause this to bust or features to keep an eye on that could shift this around are the EPO which has been raging in recent years.....has allowed for colder air filtering in BUT has also generally kept things progressive as the Atl side hasn't worked out. With that said, the other factor to watch is the position of the WAR and how it influences OR retorgrades into any sort of NAO neg anomaly and blocking. 

 

welcome back from hibernation Ralph. Thanks for the early thoughts. Haven't gotten too far into my own winter forecast but the WAR that won't die since early summer can't be a good thing imo... plus the textbook miller a noreaster this coming weekend after a torch early through mid month, and things are not going great right now for a cold/active winter. I saw some of the seasonal models suggest a favorable pacific though at least in december/january which can overcome a crappy atlantic(not sure about this crappy though). I don't think moisture should be any issue though. Look forward to seeing your final call.

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That pretty much is my final call. I only usually put out one outlook in October. Very seldom do I ever revise as the season goes on.....defeats the purpose of a seasonal outlook if you adjust it repeatedly as the months go forward :-) I also wont ever grade myself post-mortem whether good, bad, or indifferent....I'll leave that to you guys. I'm not here for accolades, followers, subscribers etc...I'm here because enjoy the fun of the hobby and quite frankly it relates quite a bit to the type of fishing I do and having a general foundation of how the weather behaves helps me plan my trips :-)

Looking forward to your outlook. Nice hearing from ya.

 

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Too many mets and knowledgeable enthusiasts to name specifically, but almost ALL winter forecasts I have seen expect a trough/colder weather on the EC and a snowier pattern. The ENSO state, solar state, EPO state, North Pacific Warm Blob, etc. all have corresponding analogs that point to a decent winter. I've seen 2002-03 thrown around a bit. The only worry I have is a lack of Atlantic cooperation and the heavy reliance on Pacific drivers. BUT, the Pacific is more important on our weather than the Atlantic is.  I think we'll see the positives over the north pacific bridge across Canada into the NAO region regardless and trap the trough underneath. The QBO right now is negative and trending positive, a possible worrying feature but it is only one piece of the puzzle and will likely be muted out with the other factors. I think the pattern continues to step down rather traditionally into winter. I could see December being decent snowfall wise, January taking a bit of a break, and February/March rounding out the winter strong. We'll see if any SSWE begin to take shape this winter which could throw a wrench into the equation. Nice seeing some of you guys again!

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Bold! N and W of you, I will agree. Q Town on the fence imho. Interior ie far NW Burbs will have a solid one for a change. Sharp drop the farther S and E from your area you go. 

I have not put together my winter forecast yet for the local paper.... but my thoughts will indeed be a slightly above normal temperature season but with above normal snow season even on the coastal plain down in Philly, SJ and Delaware. I see an above normal number of noreasters this winter season and all it takes is 2 of those with the right track to put those areas above their normal snowfall which in the coastal plain averages in the 20" to 23" range. I agree with Steve that N and W will do better.... but relative to averages...for example here in Chester County we average from 32" to 37" of snowfall depending on elevation. I would not be surprised if both areas end up at a similar 140% of normal snowfall.

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I agree that inland areas should see above average snow this winter. Quite possibly the 95 corridor as well. Storm tracks that hug the coast seem to crush north/west burbs and overrunning events can give front end snows to those away from the ocean. My area/ the outer coastal plain has such a low average snow total, that one event can make or break a forecast so it’s almost pointless to guess for here. Very often my backyard gets snow from “southern sliders” during cold outbreaks that most metro areas miss. They don’t get much media attention either. So I just root for cold and hope for the best. 

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