yoda Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1216.html Mesoscale Discussion 1216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Aug 01 2018 Areas affected...Portions of eastern WV...MD...northern VA...and central/eastern PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011915Z - 012145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected through the afternoon, with some risk for strong to locally damaging winds. Watch issuance is possible depending on convective trends. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown gradual clearing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon downstream of a large-scale upper trough centered over the MS Valley. A very moist low-level airmass is present across this region per 12Z area soundings and recent surface observations. With continued diurnal heating through the remainder of the afternoon, surface temperatures will generally warm into the mid/upper 80s, with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg likely. Strengthening flow at mid-levels will support effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, although the main contribution to these shear values will come from increasing wind speeds with height rather than directional turning. One or more bowing line segments may eventually develop off the higher terrain of eastern WV/northern VA/western MD and move into parts of central/eastern PA by early this evening. If this were to occur, then a relatively greater potential for strong to damaging winds may be realized. However, poor mid-level lapse rates (around 5.5-6.0 C/km) will likely limit updraft strength, and the overall coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms remains in question. ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/01/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Forget the rain, just give me some clouds. Terrible forecast bust. 10F hotter than forecast, no rain, barely even any clouds all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 I got 1 inch last night but most of the rain is well west tonight. Dale City is out of the woods tonight at least as western VA gets drowned by another 9 inches If you live in western Va you better rush those arks to completion rikki tick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Got home and found .70" on the Vp2 from this afternoon. No rain in Middle river where I was working..humid enough for sure though . Yeah its super humid out there. Unlike last night, not expecting any t-storms here tonight. That big western Atlantic High will keep most or all the action west of I-95, and maybe well west. Even though CAPE is pretty darn high, and PWATS are in the neighborhood of 2", there is just no real trigger. Looks like any shortwaves will stay far enough west and track north into PA for the near term. That blocking high is a bully. You have a pretty decent shot at a t-storm in your area tonight though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah its super humid out there. Unlike last night, not expecting any t-storms here tonight. That big western Atlantic High will keep most or all the action west of I-95, and maybe well west. Even though CAPE is pretty darn high, and PWATS are in the neighborhood of 2", there is just no real trigger. Looks like any shortwaves will stay far enough west and track north into PA for the near term. That blocking high is a bully. You have a pretty decent shot at a t-storm in your area tonight though. Judging by the returns coming up from southern va that has been filling in nicely it looks to me as though the same areas that were hit hard last night just west of 95 may get in the action again later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 43 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Judging by the returns coming up from southern va that has been filling in nicely it looks to me as though the same areas that were hit hard last night just west of 95 may get in the action again later tonight. I think the game tonight hinges on the action that formed over the western ridges, and if that can actually hold together as it moves east. As moist and unstable as it has been this afternoon, you would think it has a chance. But then again the forcing was mostly terrain based, and we are losing the daytime heating, so if that line weakens it might take a vorticity max moving through to get any new development tonight. The track of any shortwave(s) will be on the western periphery of the W Atlantic high though, which probably again favors areas to the N and W of I-95. Right along and just west of I-95, maybe, but less likely than places further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Some beautiful towers to the west/northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 the downpour last night was wild. woke me up at 2am and it lasted at least 30 minutes. just kept teeming. legitimate stuff, but went largely unnoticed due to the timing. some of the nearby rain gauges are showing 1.5-2" of rain today and that seems believable based off of what i saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 Begun to thunder here... storms are still a good bit away though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 The little line is hanging in there. A lot of lightning out ahead. I’m interested in the stuff west of Richmond. The HRRR kills it off, but I’m not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 Light show to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 Line came through here not as robust. Wind and ended up with .51”. Now watching the light show to my East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I think it comes north as well... fairly intact Still good lift and ok Cape ,convergence Why have the short range models been fairly terrible with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 Deluge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 It looks like flooding likely again for the same areas as last night. Reports of flooding already in Clifton from the Little line that went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 Pretty good downpour here in Baltimore now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 Dale City is now completely out of the woods for the next two weeks. The National Weather Service will be scrambling to catch up! We are high and dry tonight. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with torrential rain well to the west. Western Virginia will see million year rains thru Thursday night with record flooding, but Dale City will be completely spared. In short, Dale City will dry out completely by Aug 16 and will likely be dry thru the entire month. Western Virginia will however be a completely different story. The flooding will be horrific and it will be in the news for days and days and days. Communities all along I 95 will watch in horror as the National Guard comes out to rescue millions of ppl caught in record flooding all along I 81. Forecasters will wonder at the demarcation line between incredibly record million year rains well west of I 95, and Biblical rains all up and down I 81 thru the next five days at least. In stark contrast, I 95 will remain mostly dry, with peeks of sunshine and highs in the lower 90s, beginning Aug 2. Get out of the I 81 Corridor while you still can! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 Nice thunderstorm last night with 0.4 and lots of close lightning. That was the first real thunderstorm I've seen this spring/summer. It was nice to turn off the lights and just watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 The rain just seems relentless at this point. 1.42” the past 24 hours. 2.31” since Monday. 24.53” in the last 12+ weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 On 8/1/2018 at 7:23 AM, mappy said: .34 overnight with the line that came through around 10pm (lots of T&L), 1.02" yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 Picked up a whopping .5" yesterday evening over a 20 minute stretch. Not a drop overnight. This stretch of I-81 is safe, Jeb. Except maybe from dehydration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 0.35”. 2.63” this week so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Picked up a whopping .5" yesterday evening over a 20 minute stretch. Not a drop overnight. This stretch of I-81 is safe, Jeb. Except maybe from dehydration. Not far from you being in the plains, it poured for a good 45 mins last night along with quite the light show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 1 hour ago, jewell2188 said: Not far from you being in the plains, it poured for a good 45 mins last night along with quite the light show. I could see the lightning from those storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 HRRR really struggling with this pattern. 11z run had 2-3"+ for central MD. 12z run has nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Pretty good downpour here in Baltimore now! Picked up .95" in that storm. It's also very clear that anything of significance that falls this week is going to cause immediate flooding. There was still a lot of standing water throughout the neighborhood this morning at 5AM even though the rain stopped before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 Last night's T&L was as robust as any storm's had this summer. Some pretty close strikes, one of the transmission towers near here was hit, maybe the first time this year that's happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 12z 3km NAM looks to have a sup (maybe?) just south of DC at 23z... looks to be moving NE Couple of decent UHI swaths as well, especially one that starts in the Apps and heads into C VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 I received .01 from last nights storms. Heard thunder and saw lightning for several hours with the storms skirting to my West by about 20 miles. Negligible rain amounts the past three days here. 1.65 since Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 Rain has been less than a mile west from me for at least 6 hours. Barely a drizzle while it has poured nearly non-stop a stone's throw away. The next batch to the south has already formed to my east. This ****ing place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now