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August Discobs Thread


George BM
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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1114 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

VAZ036>040-050-051-507-508-011115-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0017.180801T0314Z-180801T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Including the cities of Lovingston, Charlottesville,
Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville,
Culpeper, Big Meadows, and Wintergreen
1114 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Virginia, northern
  Virginia, and northwest Virginia, including the following
  areas, in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue
  Ridge, Greene, Nelson, and Orange. In northern Virginia,
  Culpeper. In northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia
  Blue Ridge, and Rappahannock.

* Until 8 AM EDT Wednesday

* Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
  falling over saturated ground may result in several instances of
  flash flooding overnight.
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Flash Flood Warning
VAC003-540-010800-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.W.0064.180801T0440Z-180801T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1240 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The City of Charlottesville in central Virginia...
  Albemarle County in central Virginia...

* Until 400 AM EDT.

* At 1237 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the area. Three to six inches of rain has
  already fallen across northern and eastern Albemarle County,
  including the City of Charlottesville. Additional rainfall of 1 to
  2 inches is likely in this same area. Flooding is already ongoing
  and is likely to intensify to life-threatening dangerous flash
  flooding shortly.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Charlottesville, Crozet, Schuyler, Free Union, Campbell,
  Westmoreland, Hollymead, Ivy, Scottsville, Esmont, North Garden,
  Covesville, Yancey Mills, Stony Point, Flordon, Scott Stadium,
  Cobham, Cismont, Damon and Greenwood.
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  • WxUSAF pinned this topic
16 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said:

Why do they have the SLGT risk so far west? Soundings support severe weather all the way over here as well. CAPE also looks highest D.C and east as well. Not buying it right now.

Look at some of the model progs for later this afternoon. There's plenty of guidance that keeps DC completely dry with the storms all heading well north and west of the area. Instability/ingredients in place does not equal severe weather. Could be best forcing stays west. It may be that the triggers for closer in to the cities will be outflow boundaries and things like bay breezes etc. 

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2 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Models definitely look really dry. NAM shows some heavy rain late Thursday, but it keeps teasing with that and then it doesn't come to fruition. This looks like a huge bust. Cranky can't win them all!

Picking this up from the July thread - the models are really having a tough time sustaining the convection that fires to our west (except Stephens City, of course).  The NAM and HRRR both show small complexes coming east, but given what happened the last couple of days it wouldn't be a stretch to think that they will be more robust than modeled.  Same may go for Thursday late evening.  These aren't region-wide events, but whoever gets hit would get quite wet.

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Sigh... people will never learn

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
707 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

VAC059-600-011500-
/O.CON.KLWX.FA.W.0233.000000T0000Z-180801T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
City of Fairfax VA-Fairfax VA-
707 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2018

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT FOR FAIRFAX
COUNTY AND THE CITY OF FAIRFAX...

At 706 AM EDT, local law enforcement officials and stream gauges
reported flooding across the area. Even though rain has ended,
flooding is still occurring. In particular, Difficult Run is well
out of its banks. Accotink Creek is now out of its banks, as well.
Several water rescues have been reported.

Do NOT drive into flooded areas!

Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Centreville, Reston, Annandale, Springfield, Herndon, Fairfax,
Vienna, Falls Church, Lowes Island, Mantua, Pimmit Hills, American
Legion Bridge, Mclean, Potomac, Lake Ridge, Burke, Oakton, Sterling,
Chantilly and Lincolnia.
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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Look at some of the model progs for later this afternoon. There's plenty of guidance that keeps DC completely dry with the storms all heading well north and west of the area. Instability/ingredients in place does not equal severe weather. Could be best forcing stays west. It may be that the triggers for closer in to the cities will be outflow boundaries and things like bay breezes etc. 

Plenty of guidance also kept the area dry last night.....what happened west of town?

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Oh @Kmlwx...

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1032 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will approach the Mid-Atlantic from the west as
high pressure is centered to our east. A deep (especially for
Aug 1st) longwave trough axis extends from the Great Lakes to
the Mississippi River Valley. As this system slowly approaches
today, heights will lower slightly. At the same time, a 500 mb
jetlet (50-kt) will be translating through the mean layer flow.

Mid morning visible satellite pictures reveal quite a few
breaks in the overcast, making diurnal heating and
destabilization quite likely. Modifying the 12Z LWX RAOB yields
well over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE. Also troubling are the 0-3km SRH
values approaching 95 m2/s2.

Lacking any synoptic scale forcing, believe that thunderstorms
will develop along the ridge lines first, due to terrain
circulations. After that, storms will feed off instability and
shear, given the boost by kinematics and lower heights. Updrafts
likely to be vigorous, with HP supercells possible.

Precipitable water has exceeded 2 inches again, so any storms
may carry a flood threat, especially in light of wet antecedent
conditions. Already had a Flash Flood Watch west of the Blue
Ridge as well as the central foothills. Since believe that the
ridges will be the focus, have added Frederick MD, western
Loudoun, and northern Fauquier to the Flash Flood Watch.

Believe that it is possible that thunderstorms may feed off of
their own cold pools, and migrate toward I-95. Since heights
higher, timing later, and forcing less...do not have a high a
confidence level in coverage/potential. Therefore, am not
carrying Flash Flood Watch to I-95 corridor at this time. Once
evolution becomes more certain, that remains a possibility.

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Picking this up from the July thread - the models are really having a tough time sustaining the convection that fires to our west (except Stephens City, of course).  The NAM and HRRR both show small complexes coming east, but given what happened the last couple of days it wouldn't be a stretch to think that they will be more robust than modeled.  Same may go for Thursday late evening.  These aren't region-wide events, but whoever gets hit would get quite wet.

On top of that, it rained quite a bit last night for a lot of people in our forum, so not sure where cranky was wrong...

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Cranky is always right. I remember knowing everything he said about the march 21 snowstorm. Everybody was expecting widespread 1-2 feet when they should of known that the ratios just weren't gonna be 10:1. I wasn't expecting 8-12 inches like TWC said. Only around 3-6 and yes only 3-6 fell because of my knowledge from crankyweatherguy. 

One of the best weather bloggers out there..

Now in summer, back around June 20 that people were expecting a days long heatwave because "euro said so". Only ended up having 2 days above 90 here.

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35 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

On top of that, it rained quite a bit last night for a lot of people in our forum, so not sure where cranky was wrong...

Cranky is really good and obviously you have the have's and the have not's when it comes to this type of event and scattered storms, but last week he hyped up a repeat of the previous week and that's not at all what has happened. This has been more of a mountain deal, which he has emphasized more recently.

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Interesing if you look at various modeling over the next 15 days in out region and animate it you will see our area is sandwich in what appears to be excessive heat just to our West and then cooler over us .

This area then rapidly transitioning to warmer over the coastal areas to our East, partly theAtlantic SSTs maybe. But,  very odd looking at that yesterda, not sure it is still there today.

I would think this enhances the chances of precip over our region. I believe the Euro week 1, 2 and 3  all had above normal precip over us , I think week 1 and 3 were the most robust.    

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