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August Discobs Thread


George BM
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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Actually not as high on our chances now. That area around DC hasn't advanced much and seems to pressing east a bit. Probably going to end more over the bay than in the Baltimore area, and all that stuff down by Richmond is going well east. Looks like it's our turn to miss out this week.

Damn it!  What a shame. We could really use some rain for the drought stricken areas of Howard County. We haven’t had a drop rain since 7 seconds ago.

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Watching and listening to yet another storm as it slides by me, this time to the east.

It's absolutely incredible that this weeks setup could be a bigger fail than last weeks' "epic" event.  Yet, amazingly, this has done it in spades.  Absolutely ****ing pitiful.  A moderate 20-minute shower yesterday evening that dropped .5, and a 3-hour drizzle fest this morning that gave me .1".  I've had a 3-day flash-flood watch and every day I watch points east and west get pummeled while getting jack.

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Watching and listening to yet another storm as it slides by me, this time to the east.
It's absolutely incredible that this weeks setup could be a bigger fail than last weeks' "epic" event.  Yet, amazingly, this has done it in spades.  Absolutely ****ing pitiful.  A moderate 20-minute shower yesterday evening that dropped .5, and a 3-hour drizzle fest this morning that gave me .1".  I've had a 3-day flash-flood watch and every day I watch points east and west get pummeled while getting jack.


Radar has 28dbz returns over Stephens City? Realize the good stuff is to your E but should be raining right now.
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College Lake dam in Lynchburg is in danger of failing

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1024 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2018

VAC009-019-031-680-030345-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0059.000000T0000Z-180803T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Campbell VA-Bedford VA-Amherst VA-City of Lynchburg VA-
1024 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN CAMPBELL...CENTRAL BEDFORD...AND CENTRAL AMHERST COUNTIES AND
THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG...

At 1021 PM EDT, Runoff from earlier heavy rainfall is causing
significant flooding, especially in and around Lynchburg. Many roads
are closed and the College Lake dam is in danger of failing. This
flooding will continue for the next several hours.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Lynchburg...
Altavista...
Amherst...
Huddleston...
and Clifford.

This includes The following Locations Liberty University and
Lynchburg Airport.
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Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1018 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2018

VAC680-030715-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-180803T0715Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CITY OF LYNCHBURG VA-
1018 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2018

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM BREAK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315
AM EDT FOR
THE CENTRAL CITY OF LYNCHBURG...

At 1001 PM EDT, the Lynchburg Water Resources Department reported
that 4 to 6 inches of heavy rain earlier this evening has caused
College Lake to fill beyond its capacity, and that 12 to 18 inches
of water are flowing over Lakeside Drive into Blackwater Creek. At
this time, the dam has not failed, and is being closely monitored by
emergency personnel for any signs of structural failure.

Flood waters entering Blackwater Creek from College Lake will
continue into Ivy Creek before entering the James River.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
James River...
Blackwater Creek...
Williams Run...
and Ivy Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Obey all orders by emergency personnel if instructed to evacuate the
area downstream of the College Lake Dam. Should a dam break occur,
water along Blackwater and Ivy Creeks may rise several feet within a
few minutes, with very swift currents.

Obey all road closures and do not drive your automobile anywhere
where water covers the road. Monitor the latest conditions via NOAA
weather radio or your local news outlets.
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1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Busy morning here.

No one excited about rain anymore I suppose. Looks like today is the last threat of flooding then next week we get back into a sultry period with hit and miss storms. Hopefully the tropics perk up. 

Doubt we even get 1 major hurricane this year in the whole basin.  Cold waters, shear and prolific SAL.

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2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Flash flood watch day #4, once again nothing more than a brief sprinkle.  Picked up .05" last night to bring the day's total to .15" and "event" total to .65".  Brings my total since July 1 to just over 3".  Good times.

Nothing here. Let's embrace our mutual dryness. The western and eastern borders of the mid-atlantic.

https://water.weather.gov/precip/#

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1026 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will dissipate over the region today. High pressure
will remain over the western Atlantic this weekend into early next
week as upper ridging builds to the south. A cold front may approach
the area during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered light showers across the forecast area this morning,
with more substantive rainfall approaching from Blacksburg and
Lynchburg. We also have a cluster of thunderstorms moving from
the Northern Neck to the Delmarva.

Due to the ongoing activity, CAPE potential not as high as past
several days. In addition, the absence of mid-level winds have
kept shear rather low. However, LWX RAOB does contain near 100
m2/s2 SRH (sfc-3km), so there can still be some unique cellular
clusters. And precipitable water values hovering around 2 inches
suggest the potential for heavy rainers...even though it will
not take heavy rain for flooding to occur given the saturated
soils. Will be maintaining the Flash Flood Watch, and concur
with the Marginal SPC severe weather risk for local wind.

After looking at CAMs, believe this will come in two waves, with
the initial activity arriving from southside Virignia this
afternoon. The various members disagree as to how intense the
convection will be, but daytime heating likely will lead to a
broken line of showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter, a second
line of showers/storms should eminate from the mountains, aided
by terrain circulations and lower heights. This latter batch
should be an evening affair. Again, primary threat will be
rainfall, secondary threat will be local strong-damaging winds.
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Just now, Jakkel138 said:

Storm blew up and is about to race right over me - And split. Joke of a storm.

We are wedged in with cooler air...updrafts can't sustain themselves.  Terrain to the west and and the more unstable air to the east over Delmarva are where the best action is going to occur.  That stuff to the SW of CHO isn't going to make it up here as anything more than drizzle or light rain unless we get some clearing to warm things up.  

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