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Typhoon Tip

August dawgs are barking ... but it looks like the month may split

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro looking wetter with more NE flow Saturday. Mid 60s for the interior, but not as raw as the GFS/NAM.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018080912_54_519_155.png

 

 

 

I'm surprised it brings the IP/mixing that far S over the LI Sound ... 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm surprised it brings the IP/mixing that far over the LI Sound ... 

:lol:

That was the first thing I thought of when I viewed the maps. Had to check the legend again to see what pink was.

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The cold mongers may be jumping the gun.   Probably overall aoa through Labor Day with a few breaks as usual one of them this weekend.

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15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hope the 18z NCEP models are very wrong. Saturday disastah. The wet get wetter.

The NAM is the inverse of the drought monitor map lol.

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Yes...but the NAM is two ticks C warmer in the T1 level ... another correction, and now four total since last night attempt at October 5th.  20C is probably still too cool yet given the SSTs within a 100 naut miles of the coast... but, it's manageable.

The model's also drier down here over eastern sections, probably not what people in SE zones need to hear.. at least through 48 hours (FRH).  Man, tsunamis at ALB tho -

Anyway, not sure why I'm obsessed with this p.o.s. model today but...it may have something to do with the fact that the GFS has been trying to smoke the same hash... 

Probably ends up 65-70 where it rains and 72-75 where it's not or something like that, N to S

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36 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hope the 18z NCEP models are very wrong. Saturday disastah. The wet get wetter.

Tossed but it rains where it wants to rain.

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10 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I thought the NAM was being retired. Did NWS put a stay on its execution at the last moment?

It plans to keep playing until it's 45 y/o. It's very pliable.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The Bartolo Colon of models

Brett Favre...just won't retire for good and it keeps sending :weenie: images to everyone.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

The cold mongers may be jumping the gun.   Probably overall aoa through Labor Day with a few breaks as usual one of them this weekend.

Dont know who is cold mongering most of the forum hopes we go back to 85 over 55 but I guess thats what you call cold, anyway back broken we descend. Noticing more leaves in the yard  its downward slide time. Couple of weeks begins the best part of summer with all the kiddies back in school, tourists back home and water perfect. We mank

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It plans to keep playing until it's 45 y/o. It's very pliable.

Then it'll be time to step away from weather to hock catheters and gold coins full time.

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25 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Then it'll be time to step away from weather to hock catheters and gold coins full time.

Walk off into the sunset with the Brazilian model.

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Some water stats to the flip side of what a bunch of you are seeing...

Mount Mansfield rainfall since July 1st:

Normal... 9.74"

Observed... 2.77" 

Almost a 7" deficit in the past 40 days.  

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Some water stats to the flip side of what a bunch of you are seeing...

Mount Mansfield rainfall since July 1st:

Normal... 9.74"

Observed... 2.77" 

Almost a 7" deficit in the past 40 days.  

Too lazy to check but my guess is PWM is in the same ballpark

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7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Some water stats to the flip side of what a bunch of you are seeing...

Mount Mansfield rainfall since July 1st:

Normal... 9.74"

Observed... 2.77" 

Almost a 7" deficit in the past 40 days.  

Will it snow there this winter?

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16 hours ago, weathafella said:

The cold mongers may be jumping the gun.   Probably overall aoa through Labor Day with a few breaks as usual one of them this weekend.

GFS has been fairly consistent in showing single-digit H8s late in their 16-day, been doing it for a week or more without the cooldown ever getting closer than 300 hr.  :lol:

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will it snow there this winter?

Mother Nature loves her averages.  Flip the switch in time for winter.  Lots of precip coming ;).

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10 hours ago, tunafish said:

Too lazy to check but my guess is PWM is in the same ballpark

They had only 0.79" in May, their 2nd driest May since 1920.  However, June had 87% of avg precip and July 99%.  Can't get their to-date number for August (Wunderground has become almost unusable since being eaten by TWC) but GYX is about 0.3" AN so far.  Looks like PWM is very close to their average July 1st on.

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49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Mother Nature loves her averages.  Flip the switch in time for winter.  Lots of precip coming ;).

It's petty (I admit..), but sometimes when I read sentiments like this ...I cringe just a little. Because, I believe pretty strongly that it's a kind of bargaining trick people play with reality/perception, perhaps for their just not preferring it be summer ... Ha, in this motley crew of purified contributors?  That seems to pretty much be everyone, save for some outliers like Jerry and Kevin (though I suspect the latter is full of schit...).  Some part of their deep ID desires ... whether they realize it or not ...it causes them to unconsciously rush matters. 

People started talking about the 'back of summer being broken' which I also feel is knee-jerk premature.   Yet, despite my own hypocrisy (which at times, knows no bounds :)I cannot criticize it in total, as I half agree there.   I do see a tenor in the various extended ranges and ensemble means to start lowering more heights over S and SE Canada ...but that's well post the 15th of the month ...perhaps the 20th ...etc.. I actually liken it to the back of summer 'bending' ...not breaking... not yet anywho.

I offer the subjective opinion that the heights everywhere need to really fall more ubiquitously below 585 DAM ...particularly from ORD-BOS and point S before we can phew ...wipe brow cuz it's over.  I'm not saying that's you per se... but, this is a public forum and is thus quite susceptible to crowd noise/physics, where meme-based popular movements are often based-upon faux impressions that have become "reality" - it's probably just our own flavor of the whole fake-news phenomenon.  You know... digression, but it's probably an emergent significance about an Internet-based society/culture that was just not foreseen a couple of decades ago when the technology exploded on the scene and stitched everyone together the way it has. Everyone gets the podium now and it's ... probably great fodder for sci-fi novel, but it seems to have fostered a tendency for fractal movements and schism ethos.  interesting... it's a big leap to go between those end points, but the novel should bridge that gap in chapters. 

Anyway ... when private agenda is pushed forth, where others merely can relate - ...we get that in here.  It's the same reason why people get "false impressions" of winter storm chances based upon the word choices and cadences from threads.  I'm hugely guilty of this phenomenon, because I have started many a thread in my time as a forum hobbyist ...replete with annotated charts and vividly descriptive prose that serve as marketing my own opinions about extended range event threats/assessments.  In my own defense... I do try to qualify them with clarifying remarks, but it's a fool's errand..  Once one discusses a winter storm, the typical reader seems to read this:   ..... ...... .. ..... snow .... ........... ..... definitely .... ... ........ ...... ..... .... frozen in time... ... , and on and so on, no matter what other nouns and verbs complete those sentences.   

Yeah... it's the murky realm of subjective want influencing the collective.  In other word, Humanity. Interesting ... if at times, eye-rolling.  

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's petty (I admit..), but sometimes when I read sentiments like this ...I cringe just a little.  

Haha what?  Because of "Mother Nature loves her averages?"  That's more tongue in cheek but usually if a long dry spell, a wet period is often in the card after that.  Everything averages out in the end more often than not.  

Maybe when we flip the switch to winter in October or whenever it happens, we'll see a lot more precip up here was the rub and sort of a joke seeing as it's been a very dry summer.

I've always thought I'm pretty objective with no real agenda but still not sure how that statement as it relates to precip ebbs and flows leads to an agenda driven post...

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha what?  Because of "Mother Nature loves her averages?"  That's more tongue in cheek but usually if a long dry spell, a wet period is often in the card after that.  Everything averages out in the end more often than not.  

Maybe when we flip the switch to winter in October or whenever it happens, we'll see a lot more precip up here was the rub and sort of a joke seeing as it's been a very dry summer.

I've always thought I'm pretty objective with no real agenda but still not sure how that statement as it relates to precip ebbs and flows leads to an agenda driven post...

Lol 

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Personally the weather the past few days has been gorgeous. Those looming thunderheads each evening are spectacular to look at, especially when our at night and you can see the lightning within the thunderheads. Yes it is humid and hot, but we are lucky to live in an area with 4 distinct seasons, each with its own beauty. There is nothing like a stormy summer evening. This week I have begun to see a lot of people hyping winter already. While I love winter, the winter crowd is definitely the loudest and increasingly so. I get it. It is exciting, but the problem is people are now playing into this because it equals clicks which equals revenue. Unfortunately, JB is one of the biggest mouthpieces of this crowd. This week he released his winter outlook, which once again calls for a cold winter. Looking back through the years, I cannot recall one winter where he did not forecast colder than average in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. His Summer 2018 forecast, which was released in February, also busted terribly calling for a quick HOT start to summer and a scorcher throughout the country. Summer started slowly, but once it did it has been here, while the midwest is seasonable to below average. The main problem I have is he tries to convince people that he is a climatologist, but he is not. Further, the cold crowd often holds on to his words like they are the gospel of weather. You take a poll of people that hear his forecasts and they will tell you last winter was cold and snowy, forgetting that torch of a February. People tend to think that above average snowfall = cold winter. What gets lost in all this is the warm spells in between storms.

Anyway, I try not to rush seasons, except for early to mid spring because spring is basically plant bukkake season, muddy, and grey. I see this summer and early fall still being mostly above normal temps and precipitation, with some seasonable days. I do not see anything in the mid range screaming that we are suddenly going to sustain a period of below average temperatures. 

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57 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha what?  Because of "Mother Nature loves her averages?"  That's more tongue in cheek but usually if a long dry spell, a wet period is often in the card after that.  Everything averages out in the end more often than not.  

Maybe when we flip the switch to winter in October or whenever it happens, we'll see a lot more precip up here was the rub and sort of a joke seeing as it's been a very dry summer.

I've always thought I'm pretty objective with no real agenda but still not sure how that statement as it relates to precip ebbs and flows leads to an agenda driven post...

I said, 'not you per se' ... The hope there was, you triggered me to think of all that, more so than you being guilty of anything. I understand that undoubtedly some will ingest those comments, mangle them in their internal personal-attack machine, and then that triggers a truculent response ...

But, you bring up an interesting opportunity to perhaps quantize the whole 'back-break' subjective euphemism ... frankly, I think I'm first one to pose that symbolism years ago, ironically. I remember typing that like 10 years ago..  

Anyway, if we look at every summer spanning ... 300 years or whatever, and map the mean curve...yeah, we are descending.  That cannot be disputed in any rational sphere of dialogue. 

But is that the summer's breaking back?    

Let's assume for a second I get to take credit for the euphemism.  That is not what I had meant/intended back years ago when I typed that; it was meant to indicate a whole-scale and clear complete pattern change, that has less chance of coming back from... Usually, in the form of said SE Canada height recession and a big or serious of important cool fropas.  And we can't just pick a front and say that's it to suit arguments... If one approaches this with a truly fair perception, you'll know. 

So I guess which is it... Thing is, by asking that, I don't want to diminish it at all. I happen to like the expression, because, ...I think it is important year to year, to distinguish when that happens, as crucially ...it does seem to be different year to year.  I've seen late July pattern breaks toward mock autumn, and that about did it for heat those years... That's early break - ... I've seen hints at breaks fail, and heat until the 2nd week of September other years...those are late breaks.  But, these changes are independent of said hypothetical 300-year mean summer temperature curve ...

At least to my subjective opinion - 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Haha what?  Because of "Mother Nature loves her averages?"  That's more tongue in cheek but usually if a long dry spell, a wet period is often in the card after that.  Everything averages out in the end more often than not.  

Maybe when we flip the switch to winter in October or whenever it happens, we'll see a lot more precip up here was the rub and sort of a joke seeing as it's been a very dry summer.

I've always thought I'm pretty objective with no real agenda but still not sure how that statement as it relates to precip ebbs and flows leads to an agenda driven post...

psychoanalysis.jpg

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