bluewave Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Back to cannot buy a drop of rain pattern on the island. While we watch central New Jersey get soaked. Patterns have been incredibly consistent. Backdoors are usually dry for us with the best moisture convergence to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7916 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 This is not a backdoor front though. This is a cold front that approached from the west and decided to stall to our south. Just hoping for those breaks of at least seeing some sun both today and tomorrow before the great lovely summer weather makes that comeback on Sunday. I know many people hate the summer heat and humidity but I love it much better thaan the clouds and chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, sb7916 said: This is not a backdoor front though. This is a cold front that approached from the west and decided to stall to our south. Just hoping for those breaks of at least seeing some sun both today and tomorrow before the great lovely summer weather makes that comeback on Sunday. I know many people hate the summer heat and humidity but I love it much better thaan the clouds and chill You can classify it as a backdoor since the high is to our NE with a predominant easterly flow. Typical continental cold fronts have mostly NW to N flow behind them without the present marine layer across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7916 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Another thing that is concerning me is why is an onshore flow giving an issue with cloud cover for today and tomorrow even though the ocean temps are much warmer this time of year than in April and May. Thought during the summer months that the onshore flow doesn't have as strong as an influence in terms of cloud cover and cooler temps like it does in April and May when the ocean temps are significantly colder. Just don't get it? I don't mind the cooler air but not with gray skies and no sun at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Nws isn’t buying the big heat for next week. Thinks we mid-80s and that’s it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: Nws isn’t buying the big heat for next week. Thinks we mid-80s and that’s it They always go conservative and then inch up as we get closer. They had upper 80's for this week too a week out-how did that turn out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: You can classify it as a backdoor since the high is to our NE with a predominant easterly flow. Typical continental cold fronts have mostly NW to N flow behind them without the present marine layer across the region. Agree there. How quick it washes out will determine how much sun vs clouds folks see the next 2 days...here it's actually clearing from the Northeast to southwest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, sb7916 said: Another thing that is concerning me is why is an onshore flow giving an issue with cloud cover for today and tomorrow even though the ocean temps are much warmer this time of year than in April and May. Thought during the summer months that the onshore flow doesn't have as strong as an influence in terms of cloud cover and cooler temps like it does in April and May when the ocean temps are significantly colder. Just don't get it? I don't mind the cooler air but not with gray skies and no sun at all The clouds from the onshore flow were in a small bank and have already cleared all of SNE and even the far eastern north fork of the island and Connecticut. The remainder of the area may remain socked in til early afternoon because of the mid and high level decks above it advecting NE in the SW flow at higher levels. These clouds are mostly associated with blowoff from the showers to the south and may slow down the burnoff of lower clouds. You can get plenty of low clouds here even in August with onshore flow. It’s just more common if that flow is SE than NE. More often ENE or NE flow brings low clouds to New England and decks more in the 2-3K range near NYC if they make it that far southwest. Time is also a factor. It often takes 2 days or more of established SE flow to get the low clouds entrenched for long periods. Those patterns are more common before the typical SW Atlantic summer high develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: They always go conservative and then inch up as we get closer. They had upper 80's for this week too a week out-how did that turn out? They had upper 80s/90 and then backed down, that doesn’t make sense. Nothing shows the heat backing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7916 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 The only area I'm concerned about is NYC and the 5 boroughs since that's where I live. Hope the clearing line makes it there today as well and that we continue to have that break in the cloud cover going into tomorrow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Ridge keeps cycling in the east. If that's true then September should be record breaking. Another summer to winter transition looks likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 46 minutes ago, sb7916 said: The only area I'm concerned about is NYC and the 5 boroughs since that's where I live. Hope the clearing line makes it there today as well and that we continue to have that break in the cloud cover going into tomorrow as well You bring up how depressed clouds makes you a lot. I'm kind of like you in the spring time because I absolutely hate it, but have you considered Phoenix or San Diego? One area I will try to go more and more to in the spring to get away from the constant gloominess, but right now it does not bother me. It is still nice, dry, and warm outside. New York really isn't known as a 'sunny' city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Onshore Flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 59 minutes ago, psv88 said: They had upper 80s/90 and then backed down, that doesn’t make sense. Nothing shows the heat backing down. GFS showing some onshore flow and 850s in the 15-18c range. ECM a bit hotter. Always the case models will adjust hotter as we get closer. EPS have max 850s 9/9 - 9/11 interestingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7916 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Hope the GFS is wrong. Really don't want to have to deal with more gloominess and chill again for quite a while if it must come back. Let it wait at least until November and not anymore during this summer after we get through today and tomorrow. I want that summer time heat back next week and I want it to stay for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 9 minutes ago, sb7916 said: Hope the GFS is wrong. Really don't want to have to deal with more gloominess and chill again for quite a while if it must come back. Let it wait at least until November and not anymore during this summer after we get through today and tomorrow. I want that summer time heat back next week and I want it to stay for a while GFS is quite hot for its entire run, dont misinterpret - i was just highlighting why the nws was being a bit conservative on maxes next week. I would expect numerous 90 degree readings between 9/2 - 9/11 as thigns look now not so gloomy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7916 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 I still hope after September 11 that it doesn't get gloomier again for quite a while behind this heat. Hope starting September 12 that the cloud cover stays at a minimum for an extended period of time even if we wind up getting any onshore flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 1 hour ago, sb7916 said: I still hope after September 11 that it doesn't get gloomier again for quite a while behind this heat. Hope starting September 12 that the cloud cover stays at a minimum for an extended period of time even if we wind up getting any onshore flow If you don't like lots of days with clouds and gloom you might want to consider moving out of NYC. Out here in the suburbs, even 20 miles NW of the city, it's enough on most days to escape the onshore flow. Most of our Springs are sunny while the immediate NJ coast, NYC and Long Island bake in the fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Is this batch of rain in east PA generally supposed to stay west of the area? Seems to be struggling to move east much.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7916 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Not true. NYC is not Seattle Washington. The clouds and rain are typical of Seattle Washington weather not NYC weather. This crap of nasty gray miserable Mays and Junes didn't even happen hardly at all when I was a kid growing up. We always had nice summery warm Mays and Junes plus this isn't even on the subject I asked which is about hoping that after September 11, if the heat breaks from September 12 onward that the gloominess doesn't come back for a while and that the nicer temps that most people like stays with not too much cloud cover or rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 19 minutes ago, sb7916 said: Not true. NYC is not Seattle Washington. The clouds and rain are typical of Seattle Washington weather not NYC weather. This crap of nasty gray miserable Mays and Junes didn't even happen hardly at all when I was a kid growing up. We always had nice summery warm Mays and Junes plus this isn't even on the subject I asked which is about hoping that after September 11, if the heat breaks from September 12 onward that the gloominess doesn't come back for a while and that the nicer temps that most people like stays with not too much cloud cover or rain I think you're being overly pessimistic. And you seem to forget that from the end of 2012 up until really this year, we had been in an extended dry spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Steady light to moderate rain here in Ramsey, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 25 minutes ago, sb7916 said: Ok but I'm still hoping that if the heat does break after September 11, that September 12 onward it doesn't get gray or gloomy again for quite a while with minimal cloud cover for a while. Hope the nicer weather that almost everyone likes is with sunshine and not abundant cloud cover again anytime soon once we get to September 12 should the heat break by then which I hope it doesn't but if it does just not with abundant cloud cover again anytime soon It's going to be sunny and warm until thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 That storm in central DE is an absolute beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7916 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Stormlover74? I sure hope so but let it stay sunny and warm until Thanksgiving is over and not get ugly just in time for Thanksgiving and the Thanksgiving weekend to ruin the holiday weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 1 hour ago, sn0w said: Is this batch of rain in east PA generally supposed to stay west of the area? Seems to be struggling to move east much.... doesn't make it east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Just now, Brian5671 said: doesn't make it east... Made it far enough East to reach me in Bergen County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Made it far enough East to reach me in Bergen County. he's in NYC-won't make it there. the drier air is pushing west. It's partly sunny here and 76/66 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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