Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,322
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    John Brash
    Newest Member
    John Brash
    Joined
Rtd208

August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

The WAR continues to beat long range forecast expectations. We keep adding 90 degree or warmer days when the long range forecast looked cooler. The normal Newark split for 8-15 is 84/68. So we will boost the monthly warm departure for the rest of this week.

Old day 10 EPS forecast

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.thumb.png.c98980414f3619cf1af2c98022f2d9e6.png

Current short range forecast

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_4.thumb.png.8866543063c2a9a701774aa06babe5c4.png

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We'll see how hot we go the next 3 maybe 4 days starting Wed, pending on timing with front saturday and then stronger system potentially sunday.  But 850s look to peak around 21-22C Thu pm into friday.  

 

Guessing max:
PHL: 97
EWR: 96
TTN: 95
LGA: 94
NYC: 91 (even with the foot of rain)

Beyond there signal for next surge of heat on/around 8/24.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Actual 60s this morning

LGA is keeping the above 70 degree streak going. Monday was the 23rd consecutive day which is the 5th highest number of days on record. 

#1...34 days .....2006

#2...32 days......1980

#3...28 days......2010

#4...24 days......1999...1995

#5...23 days.....2018...1988

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

LGA is keeping the above 70 degree streak going. Monday was day 23 which is the 5th highest number of days on record.

#1...34 days .....2006

#2...32 days......1980

#3...28 days......2010

#4...24 days......1999...1995

#5...23 days.....2018...1988

Blue - this is continuous right?  Whats the total (top 5) number of 70+ lows?  Ill have to find uncs for the park and dig into EWR.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Blue - this is continuous right?  Whats the total (top 5) number of 70+ lows?  Ill have to find uncs for the park and dig into EWR.

Yes, 23 consecutive days and counting for LGA. Monday was the 46th day this year at LGA with a 70 or warmer minimum. That is the 5th highest number of days by August 13th.

Most LGA days with a 70 degree or warmer minimum through August 13th:

#1...54 days....2010

#2...52 days....2012

#3...51 days....2006

#4...47 days....2013...2005

#5...46 days...2018

 

The total number of 90 degree or warmer days ranks a little higher by August 13th. 26 days through August 13th ranks in 4th place.

#1...38 days....2010

#2...28 days....2002

#3..27 days.....1949

#4..26 days.....2018...2012..1999...1955

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What's with this storm moving WSW from this morning? Yesterday it was slightly offshore then moved north and inland and now it's along the NY/PA border. Is it going to keep moving that way and then get kicked east and out of here going mostly south of us or...? It's doing a big loop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The WAR continues to beat long range forecast expectations. We keep adding 90 degree or warmer days when the long range forecast looked cooler. The normal Newark split for 8-15 is 84/68. So we will boost the monthly warm departure for the rest of this week.

Old day 10 EPS forecast

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.thumb.png.c98980414f3619cf1af2c98022f2d9e6.png

Current short range forecast

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_4.thumb.png.8866543063c2a9a701774aa06babe5c4.png

 

 

 

I would expect snow threats to continue the NW trend this winter like we saw last winter. This seems to be an on going situation rather then a short term trend. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some really beautiful towers out to my west here. Looks like Newark and SI are getting some heavy rain at the least on radar.  Wonder if there’s any lightning with these. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would expect snow threats to continue the NW trend this winter like we saw last winter. This seems to be an on going situation rather then a short term trend. 

It's our friend when the teleconnections and temperatures support snow. But record warmth runs the table  when the teleconnections favor a strong WAR like Dec 15 and Feb 18. That's how we have been getting these recent winters with extremes of warmth and snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Pouring in Midtown.

I can see the thunderheads over Manhattan/Staten Island from here, nice anvil tops. Hope it's fun underneath it. Maybe a few scraps can make it here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Pouring in Midtown.

Flood advisory on that. Im on the northern edge of it but looks like its expanding over me. North shore SI to Fordham, Bx getting it good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

today was the 14th day in a row with a min 70 or higher to start August...the record is 18 set in 1988...NYC has 38 days with a min 70 or higher so far...since 1930 NYC is averaging almost 33 days with a min 70 or higher and a consecutive streak of almost 9....the 1950's and 60's had the lowest amounts...that was probably due to some dry summers...1962 had only 8 such days...2005 had 60///records are 61 in 1906...8 in 1962...

year total min 70+ consecutive 70+

1930..........26............8

1931..........34............7

1932..........25............6

1933..........33............6

1934..........26............4

1935..........29..........11

1936..........20............4

1937..........28............6

1938..........34..........12

1939..........44..........13.......29.9.........7.7

1940..........24............8

1941..........27............6

1942..........20............4

1943..........30............4

1944..........41..........14

1945..........29............4

1946..........11............3

1947..........30............5

1948..........29............6

1949..........43..........10......32.4........6.4

1950..........13............5

1951..........23............7

1952..........38..........12

1953..........34..........10

1954..........18............5

1955..........45..........13

1956..........20............5

1957..........31............5

1958..........26............4

1959..........46..........10......29.4.......7.3

1960..........20............5

1961..........42............9

1962............8............2

1963..........14............5

1964..........19............4

1965..........17............4

1966..........40..........11

1967..........17............5

1968..........29............6

1969..........33............6......23.9.......5.7

1970..........37..........10

1971..........45............9

1972..........30..........15

1973..........37..........11

1974..........26............3

1975..........23..........12

1976..........24............4

1977..........37............9

1978..........31..........13

1979..........42..........17......33.2......10.3

1980..........52..........22

1981..........39............8

1982..........30..........12

1983..........45..........13

1984..........40..........16

1985..........34............6

1986..........31............4

1987..........32............7

1988..........42..........21

1989..........28............5......37.3.....11.4

1990..........32............8

1991..........31............7

1992..........14............4

1993..........35..........10

1994..........35............9

1995..........39..........18

1996..........22............5

1997..........27............8

1998..........39..........11

1999..........45..........13......31.9.......9.3

2000..........22............4

2001..........30............9

2002..........43............9

2003..........33..........15

2004..........28............6

2005..........60..........14

2006..........41..........15

2007..........35............8

2008..........35............8

2009..........18............5.....34.5.......9.3

2010..........54..........22

2011..........40............9

2012..........47..........10

2013..........51..........19

2015..........33............9

2016..........51..........16

2017..........44............7.....45.7.....13.1

2018..........38..........13 as of 8/13.....

 

1876..........46..........14

1906..........61..........17

1908..........54..........16

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rare combination of top 10 warmest temperatures and rainfall for August 1-14 across the area. 

Station...T rank....P rank

EWR......6th...10th

NYC......12th...6th

LGA.......3rd....6th

JFK.......9th....5th

ISP.......3rd.....6th

HPN.....4th.......5th

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×