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August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Today is day 22nd day in a row  that LGA stayed at or above 70 degrees. This is the  6th longest streak on record with more days to come.

Most consecutive days at or above 70 degrees for LGA

#1...34 days...2006

#2...30 days...1980

#3...28 days...2010

#4...24 days...1999...1995

#5..23 days....1988

#6..22 days....2018...2016...2012

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27 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

What do you think the chances of this wet stuff staying south for another 8 hours are? Are storms or cells going to pop further north as the day warms up? As of right now it seems that it's from the city south and it's just grey up here in the LHV.

models show it redeveloping later today, but interestingly the action comes from the SE and moves NW....some sun here currently....

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Top 10 summer warmth continues in the forecast for places north and east of Manhattan.

Warmest June 1 to August 11 on record for Northeast stations:

LGA.......77.5....7th warmest

ISP.......73.1.....8th warmest

BDR......73.7.....8th warmest

ALB.......72.9....4th warmest

BOS.....73.3.....5th warmest

BTV.....71.9.....4th warmest

CAR.....66.0.....3rd warmest

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_3.thumb.png.0b85495a48113dfe28ca6495c4edbb16.png

 

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4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or 4degs. AN.

Month to date is   +4.2  [80.2].    Should be  +4.1 [80.1] by the 20th.

LGA: +6.0 (83.4)
EWR:  +4.9 (81.8)
TTN: +5.4 (80.5)
NYC: +4.0  (80.2
PHL: +3.5 (81.5)
JFK: +3.4 (79.3)
ISP: +5.3 (79.1)

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Next shot at widespread heat (90s) continues to look like Wed (8/15) - Fri (8/17) with THu/Fri possibly getting into the mid 90s as 850s are forecast to be in the 18C - 22C range.  Pending on storms and subsequent clouds which at this point look scattered, should see next heatwave potential.  beyond there may deal with more closed/ ULL in the 8/20-8/22 timeframe before next heat spike on/around 8/23-25.  Overall August looking very warm - not sure we'll challenge 2 years ago - but a warm one for sure.

 

"

Recent Augusts Newark & Laguardia

 

Year.......LGA............EWR

2017: -0.9.................-1.8
2016: +5.3...............+4.1 (hot all month)
2015: +3.0...............+2.9 (warm all season)
2014: -1.2................ -1.3
2013: -0.5.................-1.1
2012:  +2.4...............+1.8
2011: -0.3................+1.1
2010: +2.3...............+1.9(storng heat end of month
2009: +1.4...............+1.5
2008: -1.3...............-1.7
20077: +0.8............-0.5
2006: +1.8........../..+1.5(record hot start)
2005: +4.6...............+4.6
2004:  -0.9...............-1.3
2003: +1.8...............+1.8
2002: +2.2...............+2.1
2001: +3.5............. .+3.2(record heat first 10 days)
2000: -1.9................-2.4
1999: +0.1...............+0.4
1998: +1.5...............+1.2
1997: -1.9................-2.2
1996:  -0.8................-1.8
1995: +4.6................+2.7
1994:  -1.1................-0.1
1993: +1.0................+3.3
1992:  -2.5................-0.8
1991: +2.2................+1.9

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5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Thunder at the Suffolk/Nassau border.  Rain closing in

 

5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Thunder at the Suffolk/Nassau border.  Rain closing in

I’m up in Port Jefferson looking south and see plenty of billowing cumulonimbus. V slow moving looking at radar. Tropical weather continues - though I must say the easterly wind feels better. 

08DAEDC1-F3A0-4845-A860-41E75E3D0D07.png

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53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not a drop in south Wantagh at my house. Beautiful sunny sky’s here at Jones beach. We have closed intermittently for lightning 

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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There is a history of these convergence zones setting up west to east across LI.  There was one a couple of years ago that dumped up to several inches of rain across NW Suffolk Cty.

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8 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

There is a history of these convergence zones setting up west to east across LI.  There was one a couple of years ago that dumped up to several inches of rain across NW Suffolk Cty.

Figures a fellow weather nut would remember this bc 2016 was notorious for these events. In that year there numerous sea breeze front type boundary events in LI, with radar lit like an Xmas tree through middle and northern parts of LI east to west . That year was also toxic for DewPoint extremes - like this year. I love summer but despise this type of extreme up here. 

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The offical CPC AMO value was slightly positive for July. This is concordant with the warm WATL mediated mid level thermal feedback. The dichotomous SSTA structure in the ATL is an indicator that the diminution phase of the AMO is ongoing, but we will not transition consistently negative just yet.

The enhanced ELY trades; the provenance of which is largely the atmospheric pressure circulation pattern in the South Pacific, has precluded the advance of el nino to date. Consequently, August is departing more so to the warm side than pre season indicators dictated. As such, this El Nino event should be weak and struggle to attain such status. Proxies suggest this event may be similar to ones that peaked circa 0.4 to 0.9c.

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