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Rtd208

August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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Very large temp swings this morning from the north to the city. Of course, 9am straightens it all out.

Nonetheless, it is alarming how warm the city and immediate areas have been staying at night. I know the reasons, but it is still alarming.

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20 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Very large temp swings this morning from the north to the city. Of course, 9am straightens it all out.

Nonetheless, it is alarming how warm the city and immediate areas have been staying at night. I know the reasons, but it is still alarming.

What are the reasons?

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1 minute ago, TriPol said:

What are the reasons?

the urban heat island, which is nothing new. you'd expect warming to intensify (esp overnights) as urban areas expand outwards. warm nearby water temps also do not allow for radiational cooling. 

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51 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

The next 3 days remind me of the end of July pattern for EPA/MD only shifted east towards our area.  Bet on rain.  Luckily it wont last 2 weeks, rather 3 - 4 days.

agreed. like that event, parts of the northeast may see double digit rainfall totals sat-tues. some guidance suggests that is reachable even w/ tomorrow's event.

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3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

agreed. like that event, parts of the northeast may see double digit rainfall totals sat-tues. some guidance suggests that is reachable even w/ tomorrow's event.

I am surprised that they haven't hoisted Flash flood watches yet, especially given how much rain we have gotten recently...

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11AM ROundup


ACY: 87
EWR: 86
New Brunswck: 86
BLM:86
TEB: 85
ISP: 85
LGA: 84
JFK: 84
TTN: 84
PHL: 83
NYC: 81

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It is more than the UHI.

The increased moisture content in the air slows the temp swings. Dry air heats and cools faster.

Throw in the UHI and you get morning temps a few degrees either side of 80 in NYC.

 

The big story of this summer is not the heat, but the relentless dewpoints. It leads to higher low temps, steamier day time temps and increased convective activity.

If, and I say if, this is what NY summers look like in the future...we are in for a world of hurt.

You can imagine entire summers without getting below 70, with many evenings staying around 80. Scary stuff

 

 

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Personally the weather the past few days has been gorgeous. Those looming thunderheads each evening are spectacular to look at, especially when our at night and you can see the lightning within the thunderheads. Yes it is humid and hot, but we are lucky to live in an area with 4 distinct seasons, each with its own beauty. There is nothing like a stormy summer evening. This week I have begun to see a lot of people hyping winter already. While I love winter, the winter crowd is definitely the loudest and increasingly so. I get it. It is exciting, but the problem is people are now playing into this because it equals clicks which equals revenue. Unfortunately, JB is one of the biggest mouthpieces of this crowd. This week he released his winter outlook, which once again calls for a cold winter. Looking back through the years, I cannot recall one winter where he did not forecast colder than average in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. His Summer 2018 forecast, which was released in February, also busted terribly calling for a quick HOT start to summer and a scorcher throughout the country. Summer started slowly, but once it did it has been here, while the midwest is seasonable to below average. The main problem I have is he tries to convince people that he is a climatologist, but he is not. Further, the cold crowd often holds on to his words like they are the gospel of weather. You take a poll of people that hear his forecasts and they will tell you last winter was cold and snowy, forgetting that torch of a February. People tend to think that above average snowfall = cold winter. What gets lost in all this is the warm spells in between storms.

Anyway, I try not to rush seasons, except for early to mid spring because spring is basically plant bukkake season, muddy, and grey. I see this summer and early fall still being mostly above normal temps and precipitation, with some seasonable days. I do not see anything in the mid range screaming that we are suddenly going to sustain a period of below average temperatures. 

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Growing up in Allentown my family would eat outside most non-rainy nights in the summer, unless there was a major heat wave, because the temps by 7:00 would usually be tolerable and the humidity wouldn't have climbed too much yet. There's zero chance we could do theoretically that in NYC with this ridiculous weather, and I don't think Allentown is much better now (except that it cools off more late night because of the smaller UHI and lack of warm water).

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Noon ROundup;

ACY: 89
BLM: 87
EWR: 87
TTN: 87
New Brnwick: 87
LGA: 86
TEB: 86
PHL: 86
ISP: 85
JFK: 85
NYC: 84

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2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Very large temp swings this morning from the north to the city. Of course, 9am straightens it all out.

Nonetheless, it is alarming how warm the city and immediate areas have been staying at night. I know the reasons, but it is still alarming.

It's interesting that the rate of increase for summer minimum temperatures is similar for urban and rural areas since 1981. The big all-time warm minimum record this summer was Burlington, Vermont at 80 degrees. But the UHI combined with the long term warming trend will make places like LGA have the warmest actual minimum temperatures. I just posted earlier how LGA is at 20 consecutive days above 70 degrees yet again.

Summer minimum warming per decade since 1981:

BTV...+0.7F/Decade

ALB....+1.0

LGA....+0.8

ACY....+0.8

PHL...+1.0

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Personally the weather the past few days has been gorgeous. Those looming thunderheads each evening are spectacular to look at, especially when our at night and you can see the lightning within the thunderheads. Yes it is humid and hot, but we are lucky to live in an area with 4 distinct seasons, each with its own beauty. There is nothing like a stormy summer evening. This week I have begun to see a lot of people hyping winter already. While I love winter, the winter crowd is definitely the loudest and increasingly so. I get it. It is exciting, but the problem is people are now playing into this because it equals clicks which equals revenue. Unfortunately, JB is one of the biggest mouthpieces of this crowd. This week he released his winter outlook, which once again calls for a cold winter. Looking back through the years, I cannot recall one winter where he did not forecast colder than average in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. His Summer 2018 forecast, which was released in February, also busted terribly calling for a quick HOT start to summer and a scorcher throughout the country. Summer started slowly, but once it did it has been here, while the midwest is seasonable to below average. The main problem I have is he tries to convince people that he is a climatologist, but he is not. Further, the cold crowd often holds on to his words like they are the gospel of weather. You take a poll of people that hear his forecasts and they will tell you last winter was cold and snowy, forgetting that torch of a February. People tend to think that above average snowfall = cold winter. What gets lost in all this is the warm spells in between storms.

Anyway, I try not to rush seasons, except for early to mid spring because spring is basically plant bukkake season, muddy, and grey. I see this summer and early fall still being mostly above normal temps and precipitation, with some seasonable days. I do not see anything in the mid range screaming that we are suddenly going to sustain a period of below average temperatures. 

JB's  head has hit the canvas way too many tmes.   His disjointed speech pattern, as well as jumbled written works, speak for themselves---unless done on purpose--.to allow him to weasle out of a bad prognostucation.  lol.

He depends on cycles too much.   When you do  that you can look good for a while, but you have to know which cycle is coming next and when. 

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While we're discussing UHI, can we talk about how garbage the GFS is at simulating it, especially during the day? It consistently overheats the big cities by 5-8 or even 10 degrees on warm days. Below is the 2:00 PM forecast from the 12z GFS:

image.thumb.png.38232ac194364a4137237c792028260a.png

GFS forecast for NYC: 92. Actual: 86

GFS forecast for BOS: 95. Actual: 84

IIRC this was an issue during the winter as well, especially during those marginal March storms, although the bias was less pronounced compared to the summer.

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34 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

While we're discussing UHI, can we talk about how garbage the GFS is at simulating it, especially during the day? It consistently overheats the big cities by 5-8 or even 10 degrees on warm days. Below is the 2:00 PM forecast from the 12z GFS:

GFS forecast for NYC: 92. Actual: 86

GFS forecast for BOS: 95. Actual: 84

IIRC this was an issue during the winter as well, especially during those marginal March storms, although the bias was less pronounced compared to the summer.

it looks like they overcompensated for its previous cool bias and this manifests itself in surface layers that are waaaay too mixed out

image.thumb.png.6afea512d1c182152367c5ac39bacd04.png

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40 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

While we're discussing UHI, can we talk about how garbage the GFS is at simulating it, especially during the day? It consistently overheats the big cities by 5-8 or even 10 degrees on warm days. Below is the 2:00 PM forecast from the 12z GFS:

image.thumb.png.38232ac194364a4137237c792028260a.png

GFS forecast for NYC: 92. Actual: 86

GFS forecast for BOS: 95. Actual: 84

IIRC this was an issue during the winter as well, especially during those marginal March storms, although the bias was less pronounced compared to the summer.

Yes I've posted about this problem in the past...it began after the upgrade last year.

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4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

8 - 10

LGA: 91
EWR: 91
ACY: 91
PHL: 91
New Brunwck: 90
TTN: 90
BLM: 90
TEB: 90
ISP: 88
JFK: 86
NYC: 86

The nyc 86 is a joke. It really annoys me as you guys know. 

Another nice cool night at 1900’ in Pa. very happy to escape the dewsaster.

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1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Dew Temps are back up above 70

 

dewpoint720.png

Yeah my DP is back up to 70 after falling into the lower 60's yesterday. Rain/storms should beginning ramping up after midnight with several inches of rainfall/flooding possible over the next 48-72 hours.

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Next 8 days averaging 80degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +4.7.    Should be  +4.8 by the 19th.   Estimate 80.4 by the 19th., and above the monthly record---but with the rest of Aug. from then,  having an average of about 73---another heatwave will be needed to set record.

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