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August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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No sea breeze today.   86 with a west or nw puff.    Clouds overhead, but satellite photo reveals this is just a thin sliver of cloud cover and should move on east, unfortunately.

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Impressive local South Shore of Nassau rainfall maximum over the last month. Though the actual amounts were higher in places like North Merrick. The coarse resolution doesn't allow for that level of detail.

precip_30d_accum_newjersey_2018080912.thumb.png.5bc176a806b7e9d0f4262fb3ca06a229.png

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Impressive local South Shore of Nassau rainfall maximum over the last month. Though the actual amounts were higher in places like North Merrick. The coarse resolution doesn't allow for that level of detail.

precip_30d_accum_newjersey_2018080912.thumb.png.5bc176a806b7e9d0f4262fb3ca06a229.png

 

9.55" here during that period.

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19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Another 90 at ewr, haven't been below 70 this month yet. Maybe around the 17th?

Nam has a cooler push from the n into the 60's  by Sat night...not really that evident on other guidance as of yet.

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26 minutes ago, doncat said:

9.55" here during that period.

JFK had a record number of days with measurable rainfall since July 14th. The convection earlier today was day 16.

Most days with measurable rainfall at JFK 7-14 to 8-9

#1...16 days....2018

#2...15 days...1969...1967

#3...14 days...2000...2003

#4...13 days...1976...1959

#5...12 days...1988...1987

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16 minutes ago, doncat said:

Nam has a cooler push from the n into the 60's  by Sat night...not really that evident on other guidance as of yet.

Yeah it just looks so unsettled so I figured we'd stay in the 70s

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The rain is fine just am hoping for it to be typical August precip with the convection type and then some sun out in between the rainy periods and not typical April stratiform all day gray gloomy stuff in the middle of the summer

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16 minutes ago, sb7916 said:

The rain is fine just am hoping for it to be typical August precip with the convection type and then some sun out in between the rainy periods and not typical April stratiform all day gray gloomy stuff in the middle of the summer

The gray gloom literally didn't happen once this month. It happened maybe 2-3 times since July.

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Funny how normal dews (~70°) feel noticeably dry. Made it up to 92° and it didn’t even feel that hot.

My max dew points so far this month:

8/01 - 78

8/02 - 80

8/03 - 78

8/04 - 78

8/05 - 76

8/06 - 76

8/07 - 78

8/08 - 78

8/09 - 77 (midnight)

I’ve actually had more days with 75°+ dews (25 days) this year than days with dews between 70°-74° (20 days). Insanity.

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Snoski14? I know it didn't happen once this month but what I am saying is that I hope it doesn't happen this entire weekend on either day

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The gray gloom literally didn't happen once this month. It happened maybe 2-3 times since July.

That’s not true in all places. We’ve gone long stretches without seeing the sun up here all Summer.

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Funny how normal dews (~70°) feel noticeably dry. Made it up to 92° and it didn’t even feel that hot.

My max dew points so far this month:

8/01 - 78

8/02 - 80

8/03 - 78

8/04 - 78

8/05 - 76

8/06 - 76

8/07 - 78

8/08 - 78

8/09 - 77 (midnight)

I’ve actually had more days with 75°+ dews (25 days) this year than days with dews between 70°-74° (20 days). Insanity.

26 days for me, sat outside for a bit now and yes, that 71 degree current dewpoint feels dry. 

 

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I think starting August 15th timeframe we should start seeing a decent cool down. Although I think we’ll still get humid warm days unfortunately. I wouldn’t rule out another heatwave around the beginning of September. I’m counting down the days that I sweat profously without even doing anything! Today was definitely decent but 84 and no humidity sounds a lot better and that’s hard to get considering that global warming is really kicking in this year. Whoever discounts global warming has some issues in my opinion! It’s very obvious that it’s happening! 

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8 - 9

ACY: 91
EWR: 91
LGA: 90
New Brnwck : 90
BLM: 90
TEB: 90
JFK: 90
ISP: 89
PHL: 89
TTN: 88
NYC: 86

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23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

8 - 9

ACY: 91
EWR: 91
LGA: 90
New Brnwck : 90
BLM: 90
TEB: 90
JFK: 90
ISP: 89
PHL: 89
TTN: 88
NYC: 86

 We could all chip in and put turbos on the weed whackers.

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It's gotten really smokey here.  No idea why they just wont call it smoke.  

 

METAR KTVL 100153Z AUTO 18009KT 2 1/2SM HZ OVC027 26/08 A3027 RMK AO2 SLP195 T02610078 $

 

 

Screenshot_20180809-193811.png

Screenshot_20180809-193817.png

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80, dew 62!

Feels bone dry after 75+ dews on a daily basis. I can notice the efficiency in the ac as well. Was really struggling to cool with very warm, extremely humid nights

 

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Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or 4degs. AN.

Month to date is  +4.9.     Should  be  +4.5 by the 18th.

Looking for 850mb Ts below 14C and 500mb heights under 5840m to ensure some BN period for this month, but none showing during next 15 days.

EURO WEEKLIES still carving out an AN region for New England/NE for the remainder of month.   If Sat/Sun are not BN day(s), maybe there won't be any this month.

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Today is the 20th day in a row that LGA remained at or above 70 degrees. It is the 7th longest streak on record. 

Longest 70 degree and above streaks for LGA

#1...34 days...2006

#2...32 days...1980

#3...28 days...2010

#4...24 days...1999...1995

#5...23 days...1988

#6...22 days...2016...2012

#7...20 days...2018...2015...2005...1994

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Wet weekend on tap:

The
mesoscale predictability of where the heaviest convective rainfall
axis will be is still low at this time, but potential exists
somewhere across Central CT/Central LI westward into Lower HUD/NE
NJ/NYC metro. In this region, threat for locally torrential rain and
localized swaths of flash flooding exist late tonight into Saturday
afternoon, with shortwave lift encountering increasingly deep
moisture of 1-2 +std PWATs, apparent instability gradient, and a
focus for development/SW-NE training along a stalling frontal
boundary.
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28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wet weekend on tap:

The
mesoscale predictability of where the heaviest convective rainfall
axis will be is still low at this time, but potential exists
somewhere across Central CT/Central LI westward into Lower HUD/NE
NJ/NYC metro. In this region, threat for locally torrential rain and
localized swaths of flash flooding exist late tonight into Saturday
afternoon, with shortwave lift encountering increasingly deep
moisture of 1-2 +std PWATs, apparent instability gradient, and a
focus for development/SW-NE training along a stalling frontal
boundary.

Pretty impressive flash flooding soundings. High PWAT's, enough instability, and slow training storms.

Precipitable water:        2.22 inches
Lifted Index:             -2.00 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable
Lifted Index @300 mb:     -1.56 C
Lifted Index @700 mb:     -1.81 C
Showalter Index:          -0.42 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable
Storm direction:                 242.2 at    9.9 knts

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The next 3 days remind me of the end of July pattern for EPA/MD only shifted east towards our area.  Bet on rain.  Luckily it wont last 2 weeks, rather 3 - 4 days.

Next heat spike, after today (widespread 90(+) may be short but pronounced 8/16-18 - we'll see how it works out.  Beyond there models going to  overall higher heights towards mid 8/20 week, but way out there.

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