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August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

last year it was cooler in early september than it was most of october

Last September was +4.1F overall at KHPN and October was +8.9F overall. Very warm start to fall before the bottom fell out for November -1.2F and December -2.2F, before February roasted at +6.7F. The last September/October to be below average was September 2013 at -0.4F.

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Area of moderate to heavy rain just went by to the west and southwest of CI, with a few gusts.  Mostly missed, but there was a nice curtain of rain visible for 15 mins.[to 2:20pm]

Ditto the above for Jersey City to upper Manhattan [3:30pm for next 15 mins.]as viewed from perspective of a high rise in CI.

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Euro next week...hot,hot,hot... Mon thru Fri.

As constituted now, the EURO would add 1.7 degs. to the the month with its last 5 days averaging 84degs.   Could get close to the monthly record.

The GFS is even better, adding 2.7degs. to the monthly summary with its average of 90! during the period---with record 'high-lows' and new highs.  Crazy stuff. 

  Now read what I said at the start of this topic, in late July.   

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55 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

As constituted now, the EURO would add 1.7 degs. to the the month with its last 5 days averaging 84degs.   Could get close to the monthly record.

The GFS is even better, adding 2.7degs. to the monthly summary with its average of 90! during the period---with record 'high-lows' and new highs.  Crazy stuff. 

  Now read what I said at the start of this topic, in late July.   

Great call!!! Just looked at it! Awesome job! Many called for a big cool down, something I still don't see in the extended. Bouts of averages to just above average.

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On 8/13/2018 at 5:15 AM, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 80degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +4.0[80.0].    Should be  +4.4[80.0] by the 21st.

 

16 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.4[78.1].    Should be +3.0[78.1] by the 30th.

850mb. T's reaching their nadir for the next 15 days tomorrow[10C].   A solid 5 days[8/28-9/02] near 18C, then induced troughyness takes it down to a near normal 12C in first week of Sept.

RWTT still has the next 90 days at +2F to +3F, seemingly with few breaks.   Really, just eastern Canada and Greenland look BN in the hemisphere during the period.

CFS has weak system along EC during week 2 in Sept , leading to a cutoff 500mb low over us by mid Sept.

 

4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

As constituted now, the EURO would add 1.7 degs. to the the month with its last 5 days averaging 84degs.   Could get close to the monthly record.

The GFS is even better, adding 2.7degs. to the monthly summary with its average of 90! during the period---with record 'high-lows' and new highs.  Crazy stuff. 

  Now read what I said at the start of this topic, in late July.   

Which call? Lol ;)

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24 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

almost a whole inch less than you 5 miles to your south east here in Great Kills, sitting at .29 for the day.  This past cell only gave a few drops and missed the south shore.

Yeah only got a small amount here from that last shower...Last night around 1 am received over an inch in 30 minutes.

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2 hours ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

Look at that frost for sure in the blue GFS

AA7F2D4E-157A-4960-A2EF-F84E22818493.png

Frost in extreme Northern NY and Vermont/New Hampshire during early September really isn't all that uncommon though.

Some areas, like Lake Placid or Saranac Lake for example, have even seen 32F during the middle of Summer (July).

https://www.weather.gov/btv/climoFreeze#adirondacks

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Well wish me luck. Officially under a hurricane warning now as of 5pm. Expecting a high end cat 1 impact here, maybe higher. Yeah we’ll be fine eventually, but it’s going to be a rough 72-96 hours. Most stores sold out of water yesterday, but luckily we were able to locate some more in Waikiki today. Not sure how well Aulani is built to handle such an impact but I guess we’re going to find out.

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59 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Well wish me luck. Officially under a hurricane warning now as of 5pm. Expecting a high end cat 1 impact here, maybe higher. Yeah we’ll be fine eventually, but it’s going to be a rough 72-96 hours. Most stores sold out of water yesterday, but luckily we were able to locate some more in Waikiki today. Not sure how well Aulani is built to handle such an impact but I guess we’re going to find out.

Be sure to livestream if you could. Stay safe 

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6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m going to try and get some video from my balcony on the fifth floor. It’s going to be hard though since it faces the ocean.

Looks like hurricane warnings for Maui and Hawaii are overdone. Maybe volcano summits see hurricane force wind gusts but most likely TS winds for those islands.  Looking at euro and ensembles appears same may be true for Oahu. Regardless, it looks like the worse case scenario is less likely, so you should get some decent video of gusty showers.  Hope the rest of your stay is back on track once Lane moves on.  

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44 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Looks like hurricane warnings for Maui and Hawaii are overdone. Maybe volcano summits see hurricane force wind gusts but most likely TS winds for those islands.  Looking at euro and ensembles appears same may be true for Oahu. Regardless, it looks like the worse case scenario is less likely, so you should get some decent video of gusty showers.  Hope the rest of your stay is back on track once Lane moves on.  

I agree. The satellite presentation is rapidly deteriorating right now. This storm doesn’t have the aid of baroclynicity we see in the mid latitudes with a sheared storm. So once the core is destroyed your left with a lopsided tropical storm. I think the winds up by Oahu are just tropical trop in gusts type of deal. Maybe some power outages in the higher and more rural terrain. In a highly populated area like Waikiki I would expect the effects will be minimal. Just a windy rainy day type of deal. The windward sides of the islands still have a flash flooding threat if they get into any training banding. 

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