bluewave Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: I think fall is going to be on the warmer side at least until late November when I think the bottom will fall out around Thanksgiving. The WAR has been a very stable and persistent feature in 2018. We are lucky that the strat warming produced a cooling influence for March and April. Otherwise, it would have been continuous warmth and an early ending to winter after January 10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I don’t think evacuating is an option right now. I guess if things trend stronger, they might order one. As of now, we’re planning to ride it out, not supposed to come home till a week from tomorrow so we’re hoping to salvage at least this weekend and early next week. I went through Iwa on Kauai in 82 as a child, sparked my interest in weather. Thankfully my dad worked for United so were able to get out afterwards, otherwise it would have been a while due to the destruction & lack of power. I'm sure the storm will miss and you'll be ok. Enjoy your time in Oahu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, uofmiami said: I went through Iwa on Kauai in 82 as a child, sparked my interest in weather. Thankfully my dad worked for United so were able to get out afterwards, otherwise it would have been a while due to the destruction & lack of power. I'm sure the storm will miss and you'll be ok. Enjoy your time in Oahu. Thanks, hoping for the best. Hopefully the airport will survive the worst of it and we’ll be able to get home on time. As of now, it does look like a glancing blow vs a direct hit, but the forecast trend has been troubling, and a possible recurve right over the islands isn’t out of the question. I’m also worried about landslides and water spouts. As you may know, this side of the island is dry, so runoff will be an issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 FWIW the winds are much more significant today. A strong breeze out of the SE vs out of the West and nearly non existent the last two days. That’s the direction Lane is coming from, so I guess we’re already feeling some of the outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Thanks, hoping for the best. Hopefully the airport will survive the worst of it and we’ll be able to get home on time. As of now, it does look like a glancing blow vs a direct hit, but the forecast trend has been troubling, and a possible recurve right over the islands isn’t out of the question. I’m also worried about landslides and water spouts. As you may know, this side of the island is dry, so runoff will be an issue. I'd rather be stuck in Hawaii from a Hurricane rather than stuck at home not having been able to get there in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 Overcast day today like yesterday with a NE wind...Only 71° here after 69° high yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, tdp146 said: I'd rather be stuck in Hawaii from a Hurricane rather than stuck at home not having been able to get there in the first place. True dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 20, 2018 Author Share Posted August 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 5 hours ago, mattinpa said: So after this next heat it is finally looking more fall-like? I would love that. I still think we can squeeze a heat wave here but it won’t likely be as humid. That Bermuda high is very stubborn the last 8 months. If it persists into this winter we could benefit from it with heavy snows. It won’t be too cold but it’ll snow. The bad news would be this heat wouldn’t go without a fight. It would most likely persist into early October. Do I think it’ll happen, no I think we get a breakdown of the overall pattern within 2 weeks and get some rain into Cali with shots of rain around here. Definitely a colder pattern for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 Lane is obviously strengthening per latest IR loop images. Intesity forecasts seem to be way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The WAR has been a very stable and persistent feature in 2018. We are lucky that the strat warming produced a cooling influence for March and April. Otherwise, it would have been continuous warmth and an early ending to winter after January 10th. Only May has been well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Only May has been well above normal. February was +6.7F at KHPN and so far August has been +4.7F. Last month was +2.2. April was a coldest departure from normal at -2.1F, since March of 2015, which was -2.7 and February 2015 which was -6.7F. That February was the coldest departure from normal I have in that dataset since December 2010. Overall since I began compiling this data for tick projects, KHPN is running +1.8F above the 1981-2010 normals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 2 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Only May has been well above normal. August will likely finish +3 to +4 and Feb was a blowtorch as noted above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Gfs showing some relentless heat next week, many more 90s likely maybe upper 90s even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 First sub-70 max dew point since July 19th today, streak ends at 31 days. Dew point topped out at 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjr Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 On 8/19/2018 at 10:45 AM, SACRUS said: Guess Lowest temp 8/19 - 8/24 EWR: 61 LGA: 64 NYC: 63 JFK: 61 Highest temp 8/25 - 8/31 EWR: 92 LGA: 92 NYC: 75 JFK: 88 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Per latest advisory, looks like Lane is undergoing ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjr Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 10 hours ago, bluewave said: The WAR has been a very stable and persistent feature in 2018. We are lucky that the strat warming produced a cooling influence for March and April. Otherwise, it would have been continuous warmth and an early ending to winter after January 10th. Hard to find a good proxy for NY City as LGA seems to be running a bit warm and NYC is a joke. Average high temperatures for Aug. through 8/20 LGA 88.1, TEB 88.1, EWR 87.3, New Brunswick 86.8, BDR 85.2, ISP 84.5, NYC 84.4, JFK 84.1, HPN 83.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 77degs. or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is +2.6[78.4]. Should be +2.7[77.9] by the 29th. Big HW starting Aug.27 and onward(Sept.6) as I mentioned at start of this topic? Even the conservative EURO has 90's, and the GFS for the third time this season loves the 100's. Records during this period range from 102 to 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Max winds up to 150 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 5 hours ago, mjr said: Hard to find a good proxy for NY City as LGA seems to be running a bit warm and NYC is a joke. Average high temperatures for Aug. through 8/20 LGA 88.1, TEB 88.1, EWR 87.3, New Brunswick 86.8, BDR 85.2, ISP 84.5, NYC 84.4, JFK 84.1, HPN 83.6. LGA is doing fine. It is located in one of the warmest parts of NYC. So it is supposed to have some of the highest temperatures. LGA seems to alternate with EWR on which station has the highest temperatures. Some summers with different wind flow and humidity EWR has higher temps than LGA. Did you know that Central Park often had more 90 degree days than LGA before the 1996 sensor move in Central Park. That was when the Central Park thermometer was in the open like all sensors are supposed to be. This summer the highest temperature departures have been located north and east of NYC closer to the strongest upper ridging. Notice how similar the temperature rankings are for these areas north and east of NYC. Areas south and west of NYC have been cooler where there have been more clouds and rain along with onshore flow. August average temperatures and rankings through the 20th: LGA....81.3...#4th warmest ISP.....77.7....#3 BDR....78.7....#1 warmest August 1-20 on record HPN....76.5....#4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Max winds up to 150 mph Start looking for Maui or big island resorts to stay for rest of your trip soon imo. Looks like a cat 1-2 could be heading to the western islands in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 7 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Per latest advisory, looks like Lane is undergoing ERC. Who cares put it in banter lol jk be careful if you’re there. im wondering if I should go to our town pool today looks cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 76/65 now and clear skies. Top ten day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 3 hours ago, uofmiami said: Start looking for Maui or big island resorts to stay for rest of your trip soon imo. Looks like a cat 1-2 could be heading to the western islands in a few days. Maui looks to have similar impacts to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Maui looks to have similar impacts to here. It’s going to get sheared down to a high end trop storm or at worst a cat 1. That’s if your even in the core. I would think a couple of windy days from the pressure gradient. Luckily the wind will be from the same direction as the trades which often get up to around trop storm in gusts. (I have spent allot of time on oahu surfing). So I would think your looking at some palm fronds down and maybe a couple scattered power outages in the higher more rural terrain. The big resorts should be perfectly fine. The is all assuming you miss what ever is left of the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 35 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s going to get sheared down to a high end trop storm or at worst a cat 1. That’s if your even in the core. I would think a couple of windy days from the pressure gradient. Luckily the wind will be from the same direction as the trades which often get up to around trop storm in gusts. (I have spent allot of time on oahu surfing). So I would think your looking at some palm fronds down and maybe a couple scattered power outages in the higher more rural terrain. The big resorts should be perfectly fine. The is all assuming you miss what ever is left of the core. Yea he’s fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s going to get sheared down to a high end trop storm or at worst a cat 1. That’s if your even in the core. I would think a couple of windy days from the pressure gradient. Luckily the wind will be from the same direction as the trades which often get up to around trop storm in gusts. (I have spent allot of time on oahu surfing). So I would think your looking at some palm fronds down and maybe a couple scattered power outages in the higher more rural terrain. The big resorts should be perfectly fine. The is all assuming you miss what ever is left of the core. I agree, should the storm not make landfall the winds will be out of the trade direction primarily and the trades can gust into the 40+ mph range sometimes too. 12Z GFS apparently wants to run Lane into the Big Island FWIW. Curious to see how strong the shear is, once Lane begins to turn, which will be crucial for what islands get some impacts from storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 What about the flash flooding from all the rain though? Some of the guidance dumps double digit rainfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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