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August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


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22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

they've been waiting since june 1 to post about it. then when it gets hot again they'll say how it's not so bad because the sun angle is lower

whoopdee do- a day of 90 in September....it's over as far as the big long lasting heatwave by about 9/1 or so....clock's ticking...days are shortening...soon we'll be singing Xmas tunes...

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2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Maybe there's a difference, "Christmas" songs being timeless Yuletide hymns whereas Xmas music is just that one Mariah Carey song on repeat from Halloween until MLK Day

same ol 100 burnt out songs over and over and over.  Worse than a classic rock station...

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

September has become more like a 4th month of summer since the late 90's. Record number of years with a September average temperature at or above 70 for places like EWR and LGA. Almost as warm as an average June.

I was born in 92 and can't remember a single "fall-like" September. More like a lot of drier Junes.

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

September has become more like a 4th month of summer since the late 90's. Record number of years with a September average temperature at or above 70 for places like EWR and LGA. Almost as warm as an average June.

WARM AMO I am thinking contributes...will be interesting to see what happens when the flip to the cold phase occurs...

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

September has become more like a 4th month of summer since the late 90's. Record number of years with a September average temperature at or above 70 for places like EWR and LGA. Almost as warm as an average June.

It's a great shore going month if you have the time. Very warm water, less tourists, still fantastic weather. 

Never thought of September as a fall month, to me fall starts about 10/15 when we see more rapid changes with temps, foliage, and daylight.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

September has become more like a 4th month of summer since the late 90's. Record number of years with a September average temperature at or above 70 for places like EWR and LGA. Almost as warm as an average June.

I remember early in September 1964, the lows on my first few days of college, in Brooklyn, were in the upper 40’s. Unc will correct me  if I’m wrong.

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a great shore going month if you have the time. Very warm water, less tourists, still fantastic weather. 

Never thought of September as a fall month, to me fall starts about 10/15 when we see more rapid changes with temps, foliage, and daylight.

I know where you're going with that, but it may be surprising to note that the rate of daylight loss peaks in mid-September, at 2m40s/day (at my latitude... may vary +/- a couple seconds across the subforum). We're actually losing daylight more rapidly now than we will be during November and December.

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49 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I know where you're going with that, but it may be surprising to note that the rate of daylight loss peaks in mid-September, at 2m40s/day (at my latitude... may vary +/- a couple seconds across the subforum). We're actually losing daylight more rapidly now than we will be during November and December.

The greatest rate of change occurs during the equinoxes and the slowest during the solstices. First day of spring is peak gain, first day of summer around 0, first day of fall greatest loss, and first day of winter around 0.

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6 hours ago, rclab said:

I remember early in September 1964, the lows on my first few days of college, in Brooklyn, were in the upper 40’s. Unc will correct me  if I’m wrong.

1964 set a record low mid month of 48 degrees...broke the record of 49 in 1961...1967 set a new record for that date with a 47 degree morning...record lows in the 1960's were numerous...

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6 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1964 set a record low mid month of 48 degrees...broke the record of 49 in 1961...1967 set a new record for that date with a 47 degree morning...record lows in the 1960's were numerous...

Much appreciated and thank you for a kind thought from you in the recent past. As always ......

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17 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 4degs. AN 

Month to date is  +3.2[79.2].     Should be +3.5[78.7] by the 24th.

Not understanding talk about a pattern change becoming apparent by end of the month.   CFS has a +200m ridge for us during the month of Sept. on average.   Last days of Aug. and LDW look AN.

In fact the CFS does not budge till Feb. with this +200m which is INSANE and obviously wrong, but by how much and when/where?  The next 5 months can't be +5 to +10 can they??????

Will anxiously await your predicted record heat the last 10 days of the month before I worry about +10 for next 5 months

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10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a great shore going month if you have the time. Very warm water, less tourists, still fantastic weather. 

Never thought of September as a fall month, to me fall starts about 10/15 when we see more rapid changes with temps, foliage, and daylight.

Definitely.  One of the nicest things about September in general is that things begin to wind down, yet the weather is still great.

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5 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Definitely.  One of the nicest things about September in general is that things begin to wind down, yet the weather is still great.

Yeah forget Labor Day..summer continues as long as the weather supports it.

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18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

strong signal for another intense ridging episode starting around the 25th

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_39.png

 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The +20C 850 mb heat forecast for later this month should solidify the August top 10 warmth status.

Top 10 warmth rankings through August 16th:

BDR....#2

HPN....#3

LGA....#3

ISP.....#4

JFK.....#5

EWR...#5

IMG_0227.thumb.PNG.7db5e634bdcf774c4d2e20a03f929171.PNG

The period on/around 8/25 - 8/31 is shaping up to equal the departures the first 7 days of this August as its trending now.  Itll be interesting to see if the warm Atl and cooling desert/SW can push a very warm fall

back to august

 

Recent Augusts Newark & Laguardia

 

Year.......LGA............EWR

2017: -0.9.................-1.8
2016: +5.3...............+4.1 (hot all month)
2015: +3.0...............+2.9 (warm all season)
2014: -1.2................ -1.3
2013: -0.5.................-1.1
2012:  +2.4...............+1.8
2011: -0.3................+1.1
2010: +2.3...............+1.9(storng heat end of month
2009: +1.4...............+1.5
2008: -1.3...............-1.7
20077: +0.8............-0.5
2006: +1.8........../..+1.5(record hot start)
2005: +4.6...............+4.6
2004:  -0.9...............-1.3
2003: +1.8...............+1.8
2002: +2.2...............+2.1
2001: +3.5............. .+3.2(record heat first 10 days)
2000: -1.9................-2.4
1999: +0.1...............+0.4
1998: +1.5...............+1.2
1997: -1.9................-2.2
1996:  -0.8................-1.8
1995: +4.6................+2.7
1994:  -1.1................-0.1
1993: +1.0................+3.3
1992:  -2.5................-0.8
1991: +2.2................+1.9

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