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August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

88/66 at ewr, surprised they went with a heat advisory. Its really not bad out. Real feel is low 90s

That's more of an indictment on how humid it's been, that low 90's doesn't feel that bad. 

Anyway as I'm sure you know, the forecasted indices met the criteria, hence the advisory.

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah but didn't really come close. EWR's highest HI was 91, NYC 87

The models aren't always right and it's up to the discretion of the forecaster anyway, which aren't always right. 

In any event, it's a heat advisory, I doubt they spent much time contemplating its validity. 

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19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The nyc joke continues. I think this wet period pretty much proved the wet vegetation theory. I wonder when Upton throws in the towel and officially stops using that site as the official one for nyc climate  

They should. Siting guidelines state that a station should be situated over terrain which represents the general area of the station. Therefore EWR and LGA are proper citings, as they reflect the concrete jungle, while the Park represents Dutchess County, even though it is the official reading for the nearly total concrete Manhattan. To be entirely accurate, the sensor should be placed in the middle of Park Avenue...

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56 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Where would you put a sensor in NYC that wouldn't be disproportionately affected by the heat from cars/grates/etc? The middle of the Brooklyn Bridge?

The old location in Central Park before the 1996 move was fine. It was out in the open near the castle. The current temperature sensor is in the shade blocked by trees and other vegetation. There are rules for ASOS/ COOP/Mesonet  sites that the sensors can't be blocked. In rural or park settings the ideal location is in a clearing like the sensors at BNL. The video below describes the proper siting that NY Mesonet uses. Notice the sensors are in a clearing and not underneath trees.

 

 

The NYC ASOS photos below show how poorly the site is sitted. Tree growth over the sensor has had another 5 years to grow since 2013.

http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html

CPK_ASOS_Jun_2013_2.jpg.3acc232c9cb30c0422a24d2eaf361489.jpg

 

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3 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Where would you put a sensor in NYC that wouldn't be disproportionately affected by the heat from cars/grates/etc? The middle of the Brooklyn Bridge?

See above. But the bigger point is NYC’s temps are way off (on the cool side) of other much smaller cities in the north east. 

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Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 4degs. AN 

Month to date is  +3.2[79.2].     Should be +3.5[78.7] by the 24th.

Not understanding talk about a pattern change becoming apparent by end of the month.   CFS has a +200m ridge for us during the month of Sept. on average.   Last days of Aug. and LDW look AN.

In fact the CFS does not budge till Feb. with this +200m which is INSANE and obviously wrong, but by how much and when/where?  The next 5 months can't be +5 to +10 can they??????

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 4degs. AN 

Month to date is  +3.2[79.2].     Should be +3.5[78.7] by the 24th.

Not understanding talk about a pattern change becoming apparent by end of the month.   CFS has a +200m ridge for us during the month of Sept. on average.   Last days of Aug. and LDW look AN.

In fact the CFS does not budge till Feb. with this +200m which is INSANE and obviously wrong, but by how much and when/where?  The next 5 months can't be +5 to +10 can they??????

Looks to turn more wet than heat 8/19 - 8/23-24 before next surge of heat on around 8/25.  So wet and warm-at times hot continues overall with an over performing WAR. 

 

Today will be the hottest day of this heat surge with Friday and Saturday likely dealing with storms/clouds but have potential to hit 90+.  Sat 850s surge to 20C, but plenty of storms could be firing.

 

 

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Record high minimum this morning at LGA of 79 degrees. Today is the 26th consecutive day at or above 70 for LGA. This is the 4th longest streak on record.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KLGA

#1....34 days....2006

#2....32 days....1980

#3....28 days....2010

#4....26 days....2018

Wildfire smoke from the West has made it here. So the sky has a hazy appearance instead of the recent Bermuda Blue pattern.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GOES_NE/loop60.html

IMG_0225.thumb.PNG.b783f964d110d31cbfda94c74fbcebcc.PNG

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Looks to turn more wet than heat 8/19 - 8/23-24 before next surge of heat on around 8/25.  So wet and warm-at times hot continues overall with an over performing WAR. 

 

Today will be the hottest day of this heat surge with Friday and Saturday likely dealing with storms/clouds but have potential to hit 90+.  Sat 850s surge to 20C, but plenty of storms could be firing.

 

 

The models are showing us finally getting spectacular weather with very low dewpoints for a few days mid-late next week after the front goes through tuesday night. Probably the nicest weather of the summer.

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3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Looks to turn more wet than heat 8/19 - 8/23-24 before next surge of heat on around 8/25.  So wet and warm-at times hot continues overall with an over performing WAR. 

 

Today will be the hottest day of this heat surge with Friday and Saturday likely dealing with storms/clouds but have potential to hit 90+.  Sat 850s surge to 20C, but plenty of storms could be firing.

 

 

That's a significant cool down post Saturday, one of the first signs that summers back is bending. 

But alas they'll be plenty more warm/wet weather.

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a significant cool down post Saturday, one of the first signs that summers back is bending. 

But alas they'll be plenty more warm/wet weather.

sunday and monday are going to feel very nice.. first time all august and a lot of july it will feel that nice ...

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4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Looks to turn more wet than heat 8/19 - 8/23-24 before next surge of heat on around 8/25.  So wet and warm-at times hot continues overall with an over performing WAR. 

 

Today will be the hottest day of this heat surge with Friday and Saturday likely dealing with storms/clouds but have potential to hit 90+.  Sat 850s surge to 20C, but plenty of storms could be firing.

 

 

90 is not hot for today's climate in reality over the last 15 years or so it is only a bit above normal for NYC and Philly.

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2 hours ago, seanick said:

Tomorrow night looks good for another round of Crazy thunderstorms in NYC around 8 to 11pm. Soundings suggest a tornado is possible. If so, that would be the second in one month. L6maa7h.png

12z NAM had a nasty looking squall line along with 3000 CAPE, -6 LI and 3-5(!!!) EHI from NNJ/the City up through the LHV tomorrow at 8:00.

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