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August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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I was talking to a few people last night in the area who said their son is big Into weather. Likely your parents 
Probably was them since I heard there weren't too many people out, funny coincidence. Did they say that I work for NWS Chicago?

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Probably was them since I heard there weren't too many people out, funny coincidence. Did they say that I work for NWS Chicago?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

They said NWS but didn't specify. Very friendly people. A lot of people don't take kindly to people photographing or shooting video in their neighborhood after a storm. They saw me with my tripod setup near the church and approached me to say hello. 

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The HRRR has been under performing greater than 5 hours out today. The run from late morning just had a few popcorn storms rather than the full blown squall line that verified. 

Looking ahead, we should get another cluster of storms around 22Z. You can see the some of that activity getting going now to our Southwest.

FYI,

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

NJZ001-007-008-040400-
/O.EXA.KPHI.FF.A.0011.000000T0000Z-180804T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, and Morristown
327 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of northern New Jersey,
  including the following areas, Morris, Sussex, and Warren.

* Through Saturday morning

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening will
  contain brief, heavy downpours. The threat for flash flooding
  increases with subsequent rounds of locally heavy rainfall from
  showers and thunderstorms late tonight into early Saturday
  morning.

* Heavy rainfall within a short period of time can lead to
  rapidly rising water and flash flooding, particularly in urban
  areas, along small creeks and streams as the ground is already
  very saturated due to recent heavy rains over the past two
  weeks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that there is the potential for flash
flooding which can be life-threatening. Heavy rain is expected to
occur over a short period of time. Rapidly rising flood waters
may quickly inundate roadways and areas of poor drainage. Streams
and creeks could leave their banks, flooding nearby properties.

Please monitor the forecast, especially if you live in a location
that is prone to flooding. Be prepared to take action if a flash
flood warning is issued for your area.

 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
306 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018


CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
040815-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0006.180803T1906Z-180804T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
306 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut,
  northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the
  following areas, in southern Connecticut, Fairfield, Middlesex,
  New Haven, and New London. In northeast New Jersey, Bergen,
  Essex, Passaic, Union, and Hudson. In southeast New York, Bronx,
  Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Suffolk, Nassau, Queens,
  Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), and Rockland.

* Through Saturday morning

* Showers and thunderstorms moving across the area will become
  widespread this afternoon and through Saturday morning with
  locally heavy downpours. This will result in a threat for flash
  flooding through Saturday morning across the region.

* Flash flooding of urban areas will be possible where locally heavy
  rainfall occurs. Locations that have already received substantial
  rain in the last couple of days will be particularly vulnerable.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&
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That would put August precip well AN for me after just 3.5 days. Radar definitely looks juiced enough for it, especially if that tail-end charlie mesolow thing materializes as some of the models have been suggesting. The good news is that, despite fears to the contrary yesterday, we're back to drying out pretty early tomorrow morning, likely with more sunshine than clouds by early afternoon.

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Next 8 days averaging 82degs., or 6degs.  AN.               [Please note +5.2 would be a record pace]

The crazy GFS has 2/3 of the next 16 days  at 90+.   Even the EURO has just 1BN day in the next 15.

As predicted we give up some inches for some degrees.   You'll beg for rain now, if this is right.

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Flash flood warnings in place for Morris County. I've easily received 2" of rain over night. Thankfully I live on top of the hills. I feel bad for the people in the valleys, this might causes some issues. 

Edit: NEXRAD seems to indicate a nice swath of 2-5" over northern New Jersey; I would think the rivers prone to going over will do so later today/tomorrow. The pompton, pequannock, Passaic, etc. 

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