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August 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Quick downpour but it looks like plenty more on the way. It would be something if we had a repeat of last Friday here when I received over 4" of rain and had plenty of flooding in the area.

Storms are moving pretty quickly so I don't think we'll see those copious amounts but some spots could get multiple cells training over the same area

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12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Storms are moving pretty quickly so I don't think we'll see those copious amounts but some spots could get multiple cells training over the same area

That looks to be the saving grace for the flood potential. Actually the NWS mentioned the greater chance for flooding would be tonight with more showers/storms expected, have to see how things play out. Regardless its the second stormy Friday in a row.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
  Northeastern Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...

* Until 230 PM EDT.

* At 159 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Somerset, or
  over New Brunswick, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is
           possible.
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They got the start point of the tornado wrong. My parents live and I grew up on 121st street between 25th rd and 25th ave. They went out last night after the tornado happened and drove around and took photos. There was some decent damage southwest of the designated St Fidelis Church start point on 120th street between 18th and 20th ave and on 121st street just northeast of there. Might have been some damage closer to Flushing Bay even.

The most noteworthy damage on 120th street near 20th ave were a couple large trees down and a house with minor roof/gutter/siding/fascia damage. For reference, just that point is 0.3 miles from the official PNS start point. I highly doubt that the damage last night where it occurred was anything but tornadic, which also calls into question the end point, particularly how PNS mentioned straight line wind damage east-northeast of end point. Mini supercells are not known for causing straight line wind damage.

I wrote a note to the OKX WCM. Hopefully they take a look at adjusting at least the start point.32a5b9a0673e22b4e18482838244e4e4.jpge874f1f6532ef4c5301e3ec41c198d58.jpg

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12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

They got the start point of the tornado wrong. My parents live and I grew up on 121st street between 25th rd and 25th ave. They went out last night after the tornado happened and drove around and took photos. There was some decent damage southwest of the designated St Fidelis Church start point on 120th street between 18th and 20th ave and on 121st street just northeast of there. Might have been some damage closer to Flushing Bay even.

The most noteworthy damage on 120th street near 20th ave were a couple large trees down and a house with minor roof/gutter/siding/fascia damage. For reference, just that point is 0.3 miles from the official PNS start point. I highly doubt that the damage last night where it occurred was anything but tornadic, which also calls into question the end point, particularly how PNS mentioned straight line wind damage east-northeast of end point. Mini supercells are not known for causing straight line wind damage.

I wrote a note to the OKX WCM. Hopefully they take a look at adjusting at least the start point.32a5b9a0673e22b4e18482838244e4e4.jpge874f1f6532ef4c5301e3ec41c198d58.jpg

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Interesting. Their new WCM is Nelson Vaz - he just started. It's hard on those damage surveys to get everywhere so things get missed.

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12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

They got the start point of the tornado wrong. My parents live and I grew up on 121st street between 25th rd and 25th ave. They went out last night after the tornado happened and drove around and took photos. There was some decent damage southwest of the designated St Fidelis Church start point on 120th street between 18th and 20th ave and on 121st street just northeast of there. Might have been some damage closer to Flushing Bay even.

The most noteworthy damage on 120th street near 20th ave were a couple large trees down and a house with minor roof/gutter/siding/fascia damage. For reference, just that point is 0.3 miles from the official PNS start point. I highly doubt that the damage last night where it occurred was anything but tornadic, which also calls into question the end point, particularly how PNS mentioned straight line wind damage east-northeast of end point. Mini supercells are not known for causing straight line wind damage.

I wrote a note to the OKX WCM. Hopefully they take a look at adjusting at least the start point.32a5b9a0673e22b4e18482838244e4e4.jpge874f1f6532ef4c5301e3ec41c198d58.jpg

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I was talking to a few people last night in the area who said their son is big Into weather. Likely your parents 

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Interesting. Their new WCM is Nelson Vaz - he just started. It's hard on those damage surveys to get everywhere so things get missed.
Yup, Nelson is a good guy, I worked with him when I was a SCEP at OKX from Feb 2009 to July 2010. OKX is aware of that damage. I sent a bunch of photos to my friend who works there and was on a midnight shift last night and he passed it to the day shift for survey purposes. I'm just confused why the MIC chose to start the tornado by the church and not farther southwest. Since that damage is so close by I doubt they missed it.

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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Almost an instant flash flood here. About an inch of rain in less than five minutes. Unreal. Very windy out ahead of the line with lots of lightning and even some swirling evident in the clouds.

My office is right by you in Woodcliff Lakes. Was about to leave before and saw the rain and wind, decided to wait a little while, lol.

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