Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

August 2018 General Discussion


snowlover2
 Share

Recommended Posts

GFS has been consistent for a couple days now of wanting to bring a strong reservoir of instability back over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes for the 8/4-8/7 range, coincident with a decent (especially by summer standards) belt of W-WNW 500 mb flow. Forecast soundings suggest capping might be an issue, at least on Saturday the 4th, but of course the details are always up in the air at this range. At the very least, conditions should be there for some severe wind-producing convective complexes, and of course something could surprise like on July 19th.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Impressive

And the INL hourly obs were interesting...it was 56/49 at 9 PM last night...then 35/35 at 6 AM this morning...then up to 50/50 three hours later.  Is that indicative of extreme radiational cooling...where both the temp and Td dropped significantly for a brief period of time, then recovered? 

You don't see that too often, especially this time of year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

And the INL hourly obs were interesting...it was 56/49 at 9 PM last night...then 35/35 at 6 AM this morning...then up to 50/50 three hours later.  Is that indicative of extreme radiational cooling...where both the temp and Td dropped significantly for a brief period of time, then recovered? 

You don't see that too often, especially this time of year. 

Yes, definitely some good radiational cooling. You can see it on the morning sounding, with the temp and dewpoint matching from about 970 mb and lower.

KINL.skewt.20180802_12.gif.8ef88c0fb7a95dd778f606db62451ee0.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the last several weeks there have been more days than not with storm chances here in southern Ontario. I get a kick out of seeing the forecast knowing nothing like a storm will hit me. I've heard maybe a rumble here and there but even that I'd say less than 5 rumbles for all of 2018 so far...not joking! One of the most impressive weather streaks is still ongoing of no thunderstorms to date IMBY for 2018!!! :lol: August 3!! A few weeks ago that was comedy, now its a rule of thumb! I've been watching for months now the storms just skirt or fizzle out around me every.single.time...:lmao:. Today there was a much higher chance for local storms and there were some very slow moving cells (lots of lightning) north slowly inching down over the afternoon and then more formation closer started bringing darker skies and threatening weather. Probably within walking distance rain was falling but no rain, one rumble, and the closest lightning was just out of range by a mile or two...the shield was up. I was really starting to wonder if my bubble was ready to burst; it didn't.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like the 90's make a return this weekend...

I'll go 95 Sat/Sun and 90 Mon.

Cloud debris could be an issue each day, and Mon could have storm issues...So none of the days are super high confidence.

Already 90 at ORD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Up to 97 at ORD now.

We’re just about at maximum heating potential given UA temps and mixing levels, so should flatline shortly. Cirrus cloud debris will be moving in shortly as well.

ORD also hit 97 back in May.  1967 will remain the only year that Chicago's highest temp of the year occurred in May, and wasn't matched/exceeded in following months.

I was wondering if having the observation site close to the lake in prior decades may have affected the frequency of that (with lake temps still being rather cold in May, perhaps it would make it less likely to have the warmest day of the year in May) but I checked Rockford and it is a pretty rare occurrence there as well, although it has happened a little more than at Chicago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The drought region of southern Iowa hit the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.  We surged to about 90(dew of 74) once the earlier storms moved out, but more storms and clouds have moved in.  DVN has become more bullish on storms and heavy rain sinking farther south tonight than what models have been showing(models have missed all the storms in Iowa today).  I hope that pans out because it is becoming dry here, and it may not rain again through day 10 once tonight is over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...