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Jonathan

Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

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Bastardi is most likely going to be wrong of course but I don't think he will be THAT wrong. With the return of the Gulf of Alaska warm blob, the possibility of a weak Modoki El Nino and the fact that we're entering a solar minimum. We might very well be colder than average.

Though, I will say that prolonged cold isn't needed for a snowy winter and even if we end up above average again overall. We could easily have a good winter when it comes to snowfall. 

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Eric Webber made a very informative post about El Nino and the upcoming winter on the other board. He gave me permission quote it here. Though it is NC-centered. 

Quote

One of the few major takeaways during NIÑO winters like the one we’re probably about to go into is that the overall progression of the winter will tend to become colder/snowier vs long term normals especially in February, much unlike last year. Having a weak, CP El Niño increases the opportunity that December doesn’t suck so that certainly helps but it could still be warm. As 1300m and myself have noted, the character of the winter storms at least in NC seems to be kinder to more climatologically favored areas of the NW piedmont and mountains like Asheville, the Triad, etc vs areas like RDU and Charlotte. Don’t get me wrong though, the Triangle and Charlotte can and often do very well in winters like this. Residents in the region however just need to be well aware that the difference between the haves and have nots in NC usually becomes even larger in El Niño winters because we get more strong storms and while it’s colder overall the depth and intensity of the cold highs is weaker. Remember that in Niños that the source region for the cold air comes from southern Canada and the northern US more frequently than Siberia and Alaska as is often true in La Niñas (when it is cold in those winters). This is really about as detailed as I think I can get for this upcoming winter in NC given the information at hand. Should be a fun one to watch unfold!

 

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Since I'm in the bullseye of BigJoe's negative temp anomaly I thought I'd take a look at some historical data for Atlanta.  If this were to verify, a -6 DJF winter would tie for the 3rd coldest on record ('63, '64).  Only '77 & '78 colder.  We'll see.  BigJoe always seems to have a cold bias in the East to his forecasts.

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11 minutes ago, BK Rambler said:

Since I'm in the bullseye of BigJoe's negative temp anomaly I thought I'd take a look at some historical data for Atlanta.  If this were to verify, a -6 DJF winter would tie for the 3rd coldest on record ('63, '64).  Only '77 & '78 colder.  We'll see.  BigJoe always seems to have a cold bias in the East to his forecasts.

However, with the way everything is lining up he very well could be right.

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image.png.0239c3deea2be225fdccee89cb7926a9.png

From: JB

JAMSTEC: SINTEX-F predicts that a moderate-to-strong El Niño event may start in summer and reach its peak in winter.This El Niño is more or less of Modoki-type and we need to be careful of its impact that may be different from that of the canonical El Niño

 

I am of the belief its a weak to at most moderate event. Point is they see the Modoki type, and their forecast is much like our analogs

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