Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

[FallsLake]

Definitely not an expert on solar cycles and climate, but something I read a few years back was that winters tended to be colder/snowier (more blocking) right at and after a solar minimum. The years leading up to the minimum were not good. Honestly I can't remember where I read this but it showed a chart of the years and it matched up nicely to the theory.

So we are still heading towards minimum (that would indicate less blocking --> warmer/less snowy winters). So maybe next year we do.

 

[NC_hailstorm]

And look at that,the MJO forecasted to stall,weaken Feb.3-4 with the loop de loop(representing a pull to the Maritime Continent)and reemerge around Feb.11th-12th.What a coincedence.

That makes 6 straight coronal hole rotations with the same result if this one happens,let me say that again 6 straight times over the last 120 days or so.

And here's a clue for later,this same coronal hole will rotate back in Feb.20th-Mar 1st meaning the MJO will stall,weaken,or get pulled to the Maritime Mar1st-Mar.6th,reemerge Mar.10th-Mar.15th.

Everything ENSO related will be amplified in the Solar Grand Minimum this century,these so called "experts" might still be in denial or can't cope or comprehend the magnitude of solar wind,CME's,,cosmic rays,etc.

Just my opinion.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Feb.20th-Mar 1st meaning the MJO will stall,weaken

Is there any chance it might stall or weaken in 8 - 2 this time if it eventually gets there by around Feb 20th? Or does all this have some special relationship to the Maritime Continent? 

[Cold Rain]

25 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Is there any chance it might stall or weaken in 8 - 2 this time if it eventually gets there by around Feb 20th? Or does all this have some special relationship to the Maritime Continent? 

Great question.  I was just going to ask the same thing.

Also wanted to ask @NC_hailstorm, if it is supposed that the grand solar min will lead to more cold and snow farther south?  My guess is that it would, but we're also seeing some strange issues with the pattern remaining unfavorable in the face of a period that should, in actuality, be more favorable.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If I'm reading what NCHailstorm is saying correctly (and I may not be), the tropical convection's base state for a given winter is aided by this coronal hole.  So since we have been a wash so far with SSTs and concomitant convection when the warmer waters near the Maritime Continent and PDO muted the expected ENSO state, does the coronal hole just reinforce this base pattern now? On the other hand, given current SSTs (quite different from late November when this mess started), is it possible when/ if we get to 8 - 2 (convection over W. hemisphere) the coronal hole can help reinforce convection there? 

[wncsnow]

If you follow Robert (WxSouth) he has a good, but depressing writeup on Facebook.

[NC_hailstorm]

Let's make it 7 in a row shall we,what another shocking coincidence.

CME rotation 2/21-3/2 meaning the MJO will stall/weaken/loop or pull to Maritime around 3/2 -3/8 and that's exactly what MJO forecasts look like around 3/7-3/9.Gonna  be a full 15 day lag on this one,sometimes it's 9 or 10.

[FallsLake]

Well we're past met winter and into met spring. Looking at the LR models there's really no immediate winter storm threats. At this point, I think we can assume we'll be looking at 2019/2020 for our next winter storm. Of course the mountains are still in play, but for the larger population areas it's probably over. 

So what about a grade. There's three groups of people on this board: Got snow from the December storm, didn't get snow from the December storm, and mountain folks.  

There was also small events that affected areas across the board, so they can locally affect how folks feel about this winter (i.e. Jacksonville getting 3" a couple days back, January ice storm in NW NC, other small events like the sleet flizzard in N NC in February, etc.).

Personally, I'm giving this winter a D+. I was very disappointed in how January and February turned out but that December storm was great; and I did get a couple of additional small events to keep my interest going. If I was strictly looking at snow amounts, I would have to give it a C+ or B-. I was over my average. Even at RDU they received around 9". But again that was all from the December storm.     

[kvegas-wx]

If you look at total accums for the Triad against average you would have to say a solid A.  But the way the winter rolled out I would say a D.  Forecast models outside of 72 hours were horrible, frequency of snowfall was non-existent, rainfall continues to be a major issue, and I didnt even get to open my bag of rock salt!

Glad this one is all but over.  But I'm nervous about how bad summer might be if the seasonable weather patterns are this out of whack.

[magpiemaniac]

23 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

If you look at total accums for the Triad against average you would have to say a solid A.  But the way the winter rolled out I would say a D.  Forecast models outside of 72 hours were horrible, frequency of snowfall was non-existent, rainfall continues to be a major issue, and I didnt even get to open my bag of rock salt!

Glad this one is all but over.  But I'm nervous about how bad summer might be if the seasonable weather patterns are this out of whack.

True.  I had 13” of snow IMBY and it came from one snow on December 9.  If you had told me last October that this is how winter would play out, I’d have said your were nuts.  I would have rather had three 4” snows spaced out from Christmas to mid-February.