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Winter 2018-2019 Speculation


Jonathan
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27 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Your on, this will be fun. So well use the airport as the official metric in these towns. Greensboro Im at 21 inches total. Your 2.1 inches , Boone your 6.1 , etc.  Pressure is on my bold forecast. Its over double climo . But thats how I roll, go big or go home. Meals on the looser next spring. Im sure ill be waiting till the last frost falls mid April trying to squeeze out  every 100th of an inch I can lol. 

Your wager is accepted. Let it snow. But not too much.

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6 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

NCSNOW 2018/2019 SE Winter Forecast;

Didnt want to post this in the main thread for fear of increased traffic, site shutting down. But here goes for my neck of the woods. Really like the potential this year and will look back late March, early April and see how the eggs scrambled over the next 5 1/2 months.

Total snowfall 18/19:

Greensboro = 21

Mount Airy = 28

Raleigh = 11

Boone = 61

Beech Mountain = 120

Charlotte = 13

Simpsonville SC = 17

Athens GA = 10

Lot of Miller A potential and alot of mixed bag storms . Will see several East Coast Runners, Noreasters no doubt. Along with some heartbreaking cutoff line storms that leave the coastal plain brethern headbanging the wall.

Temps 18/19:

For met winter D,J,F  at piedmont Triad international airport in Greensboro. The season will average out -2.3 Below Normal.

 

 

Wow, go big or go home baby!

Some of those look credible, but NOOOO way Simpsonville (GSP) gets 17! That hasn't happened since 82-83?  Haven't even seen double digits in 25-30 years. Sure it will happen again eventually, and man are we due, but no way. I'd go with 5 for GSP. 

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8 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Wow, go big or go home baby!

Some of those look credible, but NOOOO way Simpsonville (GSP) gets 17! That hasn't happened since 82-83?  Haven't even seen double digits in 25-30 years. Sure it will happen again eventually, and man are we due, but no way. I'd go with 5 for GSP. 

We are quick to discount the numbers that are being shown. However, if we can get the right pattern, it is plausible.

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10 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Wow, go big or go home baby!

Some of those look credible, but NOOOO way Simpsonville (GSP) gets 17! That hasn't happened since 82-83?  Haven't even seen double digits in 25-30 years. Sure it will happen again eventually, and man are we due, but no way. I'd go with 5 for GSP. 

Jan 88 had to be close to 12-16” from that one storm? Correct?

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15 hours ago, jburns said:

We only live a few miles apart. Let's have some fun.  I'll take your numbers, move the decimal one place left for my snowfall forecast. At the end of the winter, we will see who ended up closest at each location. We can put up some kind of wager if you want. So there you have it. I am issuing the 1/10 challenge. :)

You may lose this challenge since you will most definitely be way off on mountain locations. 12 inches on Beech mountain? Bold. 

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Jan 88 had to be close to 12-16” from that one storm? Correct?

Yeah, that would be close. Think the airport had 14.4 from that storm, I had about 16 IMBY. Can't remember  if GSP got 10+ from 92-93 or not, I think 3/93 storm was 9.8, but can't remember  if there was another small something  that put it over 10. If not, 88 would be the last double digit season, which shows how terrible we've been in recent decades. 

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10 hours ago, wncsnow said:

You may lose this challenge since you will most definitely be way off on mountain locations. 12 inches on Beech mountain? Bold. 

You misunderstand the wager.  It is the closest who wins at each location. If I am at 12 and he is at 120 anything less than 66" and I win. 

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On 11/1/2018 at 5:03 PM, NCSNOW said:

NCSNOW 2018/2019 SE Winter Forecast;

Didnt want to post this in the main thread for fear of increased traffic, site shutting down. But here goes for my neck of the woods. Really like the potential this year and will look back late March, early April and see how the eggs scrambled over the next 5 1/2 months.

Total snowfall 18/19:

Greensboro = 21

Mount Airy = 28

Raleigh = 11

Boone = 61

Beech Mountain = 120

Charlotte = 13

Simpsonville SC = 17

Athens GA = 10

Lot of Miller A potential and alot of mixed bag storms . Will see several East Coast Runners, Noreasters no doubt. Along with some heartbreaking cutoff line storms that leave the coastal plain brethern headbanging the wall.

Temps 18/19:

For met winter D,J,F  at piedmont Triad international airport in Greensboro. The season will average out -2.3 Below Normal.

 

 

 I like this winter forecast!! :shiver::snowing:

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44 minutes ago, griteater said:

The November Euro for Dec-Feb, Dec, Jan, and Feb (500mb maps)...

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Doesn't look quite as good as previous runs, unless I'm not looking at it correctly.  It doesn't seem to indicate very much in the way of a -NAO, at least until possibly February.  It does, however, seem to indicate fairly robust western ridging along with a southern storm track.  So that is good.  At least there are no oranges and reds over us.

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2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Don't watch run to run ... Totally inconsistent because the models have never seen this kind of pattern and don't know how to run...

I'm concerned about the PDO, I guess. GFS ensembles are pretty much on the negative side of PNA all the way through, this is an important time of year for that.. 

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1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I'm concerned about the PDO, I guess. GFS ensembles are pretty much on the negative side of PNA all the way through, this is an important time of year for that.. 

GFS is also inconsistent, no two runs are producing the same result... Even the FV3 different from the GFS, so it is a true outlier... It is a bad idea to look at the GFS only anyway, we really got to just let this play out. 

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The Solar/QBO signal is pretty good right now,solar wind running 390.6 over the last 30 days and the QBO coming in at -2.79.Solar wind is lower than last year at this time,2009-10 levels ran around 350 but I believe anything lower than 400 or close to that is solar minimum in my opinion.QBO will switch westerly at 30mb but if that lingers around 50mb to 100mb that could promote blocking.

Sun has been flaring up the last 4 or 5 days and this will need to be watched,but the forecast is for quieter conditions starting this week till the first of December.EEP levels also responding lately dropping close to 09-10 levels but this last flare up made them jump.Sun really flared up in late August,all of September and half of October with solar wind levels hitting 750 at peak.

Solar minimum drives the jet stream further south,especially across N America,I wouldn't be surprised if it's the main driver in the weather soon,1986-87 is also a decent match that was solar minimum with negative QBO and El Nino conditions.

Carry on.

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