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Winter 2018-2019 Speculation


Jonathan
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14 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Couple more from the Ukie.Euro is pretty close to these but I'm not sure If I can put their maps on here.

Here's Heights.

 

 

convert_image-gorax-green-003-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-JoQ6Yx.png

Thanks for posting these.  I'd like to see the lower heights moved a bit to the south.  But otherwise, pretty good.

Do they show month by month temp anoms or just the d-f period?

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CFS has been sorta bad lately but it is showing a crash in zonal winds around Mid/late December at 10Hpa(technical SSW).This will be a bottom-up event if it happens,warming from 100mb to 50mb going up to 10mb reversing it for a while.Usually leads to more blocking.

GEFS gets it down to 20 m/s at the end of it's run also at the beginning of December.

 

 

u10serie11.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 2m2 minutes ago

 

Our updated December outlook favors warmer and wetter than normal conditions across much of the country. Best chances for a cooler than normal December are across the Central Great Basin and Northern New England. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ 

DtRrsHjWwAAxRIU.jpg
DtRrszIWoAE1e-2.jpg
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  • 3 weeks later...

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GL072832

The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO‐induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11 year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3 years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible.

 

I'd say that research came out quite accurate.Solar wind/EEP levels mostly in my opinion drive it NOT sun spots or the 10.7cm flux.Carry on.

 

 

Fig1_MJO_Phase_diagram_2018_large.jpg

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3 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Just looking at some verification scores tonight,the FV3 is just as good as the Ukie at day 6.If it can be as good as it,it can be very useful in medium range.Euro is still king across the board but the FV3 is far better than the Canadian and a tick better than the GFS at day 10 but that's long range anyway.

 

 

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

Hopefully, this will be useful in a few weeks, as we have some events to track!?

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My opinion the MJO is stalled again is we had an extra coronal hole/flareup Dec.19-22nd that was completely missed by the space forecasts.It was small but it still produced over 600 km/s a few days.Then you add in the 7-10 day lag with every big flareup and that's why it's still stuck,sun is still too unpredictable to pick up every large flare though.

These larger flareups tend to stall/weaken or push the tropical forcing back in to the Maritime continent(phase 4,5.6)just from my observations.The larger,stronger coronal hole that rotates around every 20 days has done this every time the last 4 cycles with a 7-10 day lag after each one.Example is the Dec 7-14th rotation/flare up then we had the Dec 15-21st stall.

December overall hasn't been as good as October/November concerning solar wind,EEP.November had 20 days below 400 km/s but December only 14 days.Stronger MJO's are far more likely with a good Solar/QBO signal(solar min/-QBO)this was researched 2 years ago and results verify.

What you need is a good 10- 14 day stretch of very low solar wind/EEP to pull this MJO around and keep it out of Maritime Continent forcing.stalling but the coronal hole is already rotated back starting Dec 28th.

Just my opinion and observations.

 

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Better hope the MJO can get to phase 7 or close to 8 by Jan 8th-9th because that's when the 10 day lag/weaken'pull will start and all the models are picking this up already at some degree.Coronal hole rotated around Dec.29th so that gives you 10 days or so to get the MJO to a better phase,where it stalls it what you'll get for at least 10 days.matches up perfectly with the coronal hole rotation.

The loop on some of the models represents the attempt to pull the MJO to Maritime continent forcing(phase 4,5,6),the Euro is weaker with the MJO but tries to push it back into phase 4(Maritime continent forcing)which is very possible at the long range.

If it doesn't get to phase 7 or 8 you could virtually lose the whole month waiting on another 10 day lag so the race is on .Fascinating to watch and observe once you figure out what to look for.

Just my opinion again.

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38 minutes ago, griteater said:

hailstorm - do you know of the physical mechanism whereby enhanced solar wind (from rotating coronal holes) stalls the MJO?

I think because of the fact a coronal burst that heightens the solar wind disrupts the atmosphere near the poles more due to the magnetic field being weaker there. Keep in mind, just one difference somewhere has a big impact everywhere (like ripples spreading on a pond). The MJO prefers a smooth, calm atmosphere, so with the atmosphere disrupted, it is like the MJO hits a "rock", and goes nowhere. I know that you asked hailstorm, but that is the best explanation I can give. .Hopefully, he corrects me if I'm wrong.

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On 1/1/2019 at 12:05 PM, griteater said:

hailstorm - do you know of the physical mechanism whereby enhanced solar wind (from rotating coronal holes) stalls the MJO?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612000302

 A clear solar signature in MJO spectral properties is indeed found and shown to be both statistically significant and robust.

The overall correlation with solar activity is found to be stronger in the Indian Ocean.

Still observing myself and learning.

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So around Jan 10th, 11th the coronal hole is going to stall the MJO again? Is that the thinking/consensus? If so is the stall what causes the MJO to go inside COD? or is it other factors that cause MJO to go in COD? Enjoy reading ya'lls thoughts on this, easy to understand layman's terms . Weber knows this stuff upside down, but I'm afraid to ask him. His answers require higher intelligence than yours truly possess for discernment.

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On 1/3/2019 at 12:22 PM, NCSNOW said:

So around Jan 10th, 11th the coronal hole is going to stall the MJO again? Is that the thinking/consensus? If so is the stall what causes the MJO to go inside COD? or is it other factors that cause MJO to go in COD? Enjoy reading ya'lls thoughts on this, easy to understand layman's terms . Weber knows this stuff upside down, but I'm afraid to ask him. His answers require higher intelligence than yours truly possess for discernment.

By my observations it should start Jan 8th or 9th,10 days from the  Dec 29th-Jan.7th rotation.Usually it takes 7-10 days for this to filter through the atmosphere so there is a 7-10 day lag .January 17-18th or so we should see the MJO emerge again after the 7-10 lag after effect.

Good news it this latest rotation doesn't seem to be a strong as the Dec 2nd-12th one and the Dec 19-22 surprise flareup.

There were 6 days above 500 km/s that rotation with 1 day above 600 km/s,so far into this rotation only 2 days above 500 km/s with two more days to go.This gives me more confidence the MJO should stay a bit stronger a bit longer maybe emerging at a weak phase 6 or 7 but just a guess.

Next rotation is Jan.24th but the sun looks pretty quiet Jan 8th-to Jan 23rd which should help keep the tropical forcing out of the Maritime(phase 4,5,6) in the long term.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Coronal hole rotating in today (Jan.24th-Feb.3rd) meaning the MJO will stall,weaken,or get pulled to the Maritime around Feb.2nd-Feb 7th given a 9-14 day lag on this.It should reemerge around Feb.11th-Feb 16th given another 9-14 day lag after the rotation ends(Feb.2nd).

MJO should progress and tick stronger the next 10 days solar wind was pretty low Jan.8th-Jan 23rd,should get to p7 maybe p8.

Just my opinion.

 

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9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

This winter is going to be above average temps once again for the majority of the forum. February looks to be warm for at least the first week. 

We’ve had colds temperatures but can’t seem to get the moisture here at the same time. Not yet anyway. 

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