Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

[WarmNose]

19 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I am already grey and old ...... but I have had the fortune of seeing several 12 inch+ snowstorms, thunder-snow, snow on Christmas Day and blizzard conditions with single-digit temps. Guess looking back at it, I have bagged my white buffalo. Maybe I will live long enough to see history repeat itself. I hope it happens this winter.

The Christmas Day snowstorm is one that probably won’t be repeated. That was a long shot but we cashed in on some good fortune. I remember it started raining the afternoon of the 25th and I thought “here we go again” but within an hour it turned to big wet half dollar flakes and never switched back. I think that was one of the few times I’ve seen rates overcome around here and push the 850 line well to my south. It was a great day. One to remember and tell about to my kids and theirs  

[LithiaWx]

The writing on the wall says blockbuster winter incoming.  It will be hard to beat last year down here with the early December paste job of up to a foot.  

[Orangeburgwx]

24 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

The writing on the wall says blockbuster winter incoming.  It will be hard to beat last year down here with the early December paste job of up to a foot.  

Historical snowfall?

[Orangeburgwx]

Chance of a white Christmas:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1055489059269812224

[CaryWx]

6 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Chance of a white Christmas:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1055489059269812224

Chance it snows on Christmas day I see not snow on the ground which is a much higher percentage.....well, north of my location anyway

[Suncat]

20 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Chance of a white Christmas:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1055489059269812224

Since I just checked out this link, the Christmas snow idea is now officially jinxed.

[Poimen]

From Judah Cohen: 

CFS predicting big changes in the #PolarVortex (PV) between now and December with significant disrupting of the PV over time.  If (and a really big if!) accurate this would favor a quick start to the winter season with multiple episodes of #cold and #snow.

[Orangeburgwx]

I like this forecast, shades of 09'-10:

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/

[CarySnowLover]

Hoping for a very snowy winter here in Cary. Last year was our snowiest in a while - I measured about 10" of snow from the January 17 storm. Would love to get the season started early as early-mid December has been notoriously difficult to get accumulating snowfall in recent years. 

[BullCityWx]

On 10/30/2018 at 8:24 AM, Orangeburgwx said:

I like this forecast, shades of 09'-10:

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/

He/she doesnt seem to understand carolina climatology.

[Orangeburgwx]

2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

He/she doesnt seem to understand carolina climatology.

SER and WAA... Never fails

[CarySnowLover]

6 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

He/she doesnt seem to understand carolina climatology.

Lol...that is true. 

I want to be optimistic about this upcoming winter for lots of snow.  While El Niños do usually mean cooler and wetter conditions for winter in North Carolina, it's entirely possible that what we do get is a very cold rain or ice. The last El Niño (2015-16) we only had a mere 1.4" of snowfall total, though that was a Super El Niño and this one is much weaker. From what I have noticed (and Eric Webb has pointed this out as well), El Niño winters seem to favor the heaviest snow totals being farther west (especially the Triad westward), while the Triangle eastward is left with less accumulation. Many of the heaviest central/eastern NC snowfalls (Dec 1989, Jan 2000, Jan 2002, Dec 2010 and Jan 2018) occurred during cool neutral or La Niña ENSO years. The only El Niños in recent memory to have produced above average snowfall in the area are 2009-10 and 2014-15, hopefully this winter will be like those years!

[SnowNiner]

Allan's winter forecast....looks as good as I think you can ask for.  December meh as usual, but January starts a good season.  Patiently waiting on Grit's outlook...:)

http://raleighwxmodels.com/awhuffma/Winter/Winter2018-19Forecast.pdf

[jburns]

6 hours ago, CarySnowLover said:

Lol...that is true. 

I want to be optimistic about this upcoming winter for lots of snow.  While El Niños do usually mean cooler and wetter conditions for winter in North Carolina, it's entirely possible that what we do get is a very cold rain or ice. The last El Niño (2015-16) we only had a mere 1.4" of snowfall total, though that was a Super El Niño and this one is much weaker. From what I have noticed (and Eric Webb has pointed this out as well), El Niño winters seem to favor the heaviest snow totals being farther west (especially the Triad westward), while the Triangle eastward is left with less accumulation. Many of the heaviest central/eastern NC snowfalls (Dec 1989, Jan 2000, Jan 2002, Dec 2010 and Jan 2018) occurred during cool neutral or La Niña ENSO years. The only El Niños in recent memory to have produced above average snowfall in the area are 2009-10 and 2014-15, hopefully this winter will be like those years!

East of the mountains our snow averages are so low that it is impossible to issue any seasonal snow total forecast that is much beyond a coin flip. Six hours of heavy snow puts you over your seasonal average. Not much to hang a forecast on either way.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

1 hour ago, jburns said:

East of the mountains our snow averages are so low that it is impossible to issue any seasonal snow total forecast that is much beyond a coin flip. Six hours of heavy snow puts you over your seasonal average. Not much to hang a forecast on either way.

A true but VERY sobering reality that most of us can't get 6 hours of mod to heavy snow during an entire winter season. Wow, I'm feeling really depressed now, thanks Burns.

[jburns]

30 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

A true but VERY sobering reality that most of us can't get 6 hours of mod to heavy snow during an entire winter season. Wow, I'm feeling really depressed now, thanks Burns.

Sometimes reality sucks.

[Orangeburgwx]

17 minutes ago, jburns said:

Sometimes reality sucks.

Fly in the ointment... The gift that keeps on giving year after year after year sadly

[CarySnowLover]

40 minutes ago, jburns said:

Sometimes reality sucks.

That is so true for the Southeast and wintry events.

We have to wait until January for any decent chance of anything, and then when we do get a chance, either the soil is too warm, or a "warm air nose" turns the precipitation to ice. Getting just a few inches of snow is a challenge in the Carolinas outside of the mountains - especially in the month of December. I'm still frustrated that Louisiana and Las Vegas have seen more impressive pre-Christmas snows than us in the last decade. 

[NCSNOW]

NCSNOW 2018/2019 SE Winter Forecast;

Didnt want to post this in the main thread for fear of increased traffic, site shutting down. But here goes for my neck of the woods. Really like the potential this year and will look back late March, early April and see how the eggs scrambled over the next 5 1/2 months.

Total snowfall 18/19:

Greensboro = 21

Mount Airy = 28

Raleigh = 11

Boone = 61

Beech Mountain = 120

Charlotte = 13

Simpsonville SC = 17

Athens GA = 10

Lot of Miller A potential and alot of mixed bag storms . Will see several East Coast Runners, Noreasters no doubt. Along with some heartbreaking cutoff line storms that leave the coastal plain brethern headbanging the wall.

Temps 18/19:

For met winter D,J,F  at piedmont Triad international airport in Greensboro. The season will average out -2.3 Below Normal.

 

 

[Waiting on snow]

59 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

NCSNOW 2018/2019 SE Winter Forecast;

Didnt want to post this in the main thread for fear of increased traffic, site shutting down. But here goes for my neck of the woods. Really like the potential this year and will look back late March, early April and see how the eggs scrambled over the next 5 1/2 months.

Total snowfall 18/19:

Greensboro = 21

Mount Airy = 28

Raleigh = 11

Boone = 61

Beech Mountain = 120

Charlotte = 13

Simpsonville SC = 17

Athens GA = 10

Lot of Miller A potential and alot of mixed bag storms . Will see several East Coast Runners, Noreasters no doubt. Along with some heartbreaking cutoff line storms that leave the coastal plain brethern headbanging the wall.

Temps 18/19:

For met winter D,J,F  at piedmont Triad international airport in Greensboro. The season will average out -2.3 Below Normal.

 

 

Looks like potential this winter for sure. Could be the 1st double digit winter at GSP in a quarter century!

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The new pattern is Polar Vortex displaced over eastern 1/2 of land.. the global pattern has slowed. 

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

NCSNOW 2018/2019 SE Winter Forecast;

Didnt want to post this in the main thread for fear of increased traffic, site shutting down. But here goes for my neck of the woods. Really like the potential this year and will look back late March, early April and see how the eggs scrambled over the next 5 1/2 months.

Total snowfall 18/19:

Greensboro = 21

Mount Airy = 28

Raleigh = 11

Boone = 61

Beech Mountain = 120

Charlotte = 13

Simpsonville SC = 17

Athens GA = 10

Lot of Miller A potential and alot of mixed bag storms . Will see several East Coast Runners, Noreasters no doubt. Along with some heartbreaking cutoff line storms that leave the coastal plain brethern headbanging the wall.

Temps 18/19:

For met winter D,J,F  at piedmont Triad international airport in Greensboro. The season will average out -2.3 Below Normal.

 

 

I think your numbers could verify, but I'm thinking there may be more miller B / CAD setups. That would give us a better chance for the mixed bag storms you mentioned. **goes along with analog years being thrown around like 2002 and 2010.  

[FallsLake]

3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The new pattern is Polar Vortex displaced over eastern 1/2 of land.. the global pattern has slowed. 

Slow is good, causes the pattern to buckle. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Just now, FallsLake said:

Slow is good, causes the pattern to buckle. 

Yup, I'd shift the average snows 50 miles south

[FallsLake]

8 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Yup, I'd shift the average snows 50 miles south

I would love to see a winter of blocking with a suppressed storm track[ which would give credence to NCSNOW's thoughts of miller A storms.

Another thought I have is it's been some years since the coastal plans of SC and NC scored a big storm. If we get strong enough blocking there may be better chances of storms staying farther offshore and giving the folks down-east (Columbia, Fayetteville, Goldsboro, Greenville NC) a shot.  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Maybe it has something to do with Arctic sea ice which had a +4.5 SD event in September but the whole global pattern is different, even beyond this. 

[FallsLake]

2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Maybe it has something to do with Arctic sea ice which had a +4.5 SD event in September but the whole global pattern is different, even beyond this. 

I read a few years back that open waters / slower freeze up in the Arctic can promote more blocking. Bad to the climate up there but great for us eastern US folks wanting to see snow. 

But I agree, the overall N. Hemisphere pattern is strange right now. Not sure how it will manifest itself in the coming months.  

 

[jburns]

2 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

NCSNOW 2018/2019 SE Winter Forecast;

Didnt want to post this in the main thread for fear of increased traffic, site shutting down. But here goes for my neck of the woods. Really like the potential this year and will look back late March, early April and see how the eggs scrambled over the next 5 1/2 months.

Total snowfall 18/19:

Greensboro = 21

Mount Airy = 28

Raleigh = 11

Boone = 61

Beech Mountain = 120

Charlotte = 13

Simpsonville SC = 17

Athens GA = 10

Lot of Miller A potential and alot of mixed bag storms . Will see several East Coast Runners, Noreasters no doubt. Along with some heartbreaking cutoff line storms that leave the coastal plain brethern headbanging the wall.

Temps 18/19:

For met winter D,J,F  at piedmont Triad international airport in Greensboro. The season will average out -2.3 Below Normal.

 

 

11

We only live a few miles apart. Let's have some fun.  I'll take your numbers, move the decimal one place left for my snowfall forecast. At the end of the winter, we will see who ended up closest at each location. We can put up some kind of wager if you want. So there you have it. I am issuing the 1/10 challenge.

[NCSNOW]

33 minutes ago, jburns said:

We only live a few miles apart. Let's have some fun.  I'll take your numbers, move the decimal one place left for my snowfall forecast. At the end of the winter, we will see who ended up closest at each location. We can put up some kind of wager if you want. So there you have it. I am issuing the 1/10 challenge.

Your on, this will be fun. So well use the airport as the official metric in these towns. Greensboro Im at 21 inches total. Your 2.1 inches , Boone your 6.1 , etc.  Pressure is on my bold forecast. Its over double climo . But thats how I roll, go big or go home. Meals on the looser next spring. Im sure ill be waiting till the last frost falls mid April trying to squeeze out  every 100th of an inch I can lol. 

[mackerel_sky]

3 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

NCSNOW 2018/2019 SE Winter Forecast;

Didnt want to post this in the main thread for fear of increased traffic, site shutting down. But here goes for my neck of the woods. Really like the potential this year and will look back late March, early April and see how the eggs scrambled over the next 5 1/2 months.

Total snowfall 18/19:

Greensboro = 21

Mount Airy = 28

Raleigh = 11

Boone = 61

Beech Mountain = 120

Charlotte = 13

Simpsonville SC = 17

Athens GA = 10

Lot of Miller A potential and alot of mixed bag storms . Will see several East Coast Runners, Noreasters no doubt. Along with some heartbreaking cutoff line storms that leave the coastal plain brethern headbanging the wall.

Temps 18/19:

For met winter D,J,F  at piedmont Triad international airport in Greensboro. The season will average out -2.3 Below Normal.

 

 

I approve this winter forecast! Make SE winters great again!!