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Winter 2018-2019 Speculation


Jonathan
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You have to like our position only a few weeks out from serious winter weather across the country. 

 

CP Niño shaping up which traditionally is the best ENSO pattern for us with the highest chance of below normal temps in the east with positive precip anomalies. 

CP Nino is also best for storm track (see the bottom set of graphics in the image below. 

 

This pic is for January-March. 

5B1C3EA6-36CB-494D-A23A-BA41C4B41357.jpeg.f454e77dafe269210370eb7aa76a0f99.jpeg

 

This ENSO is on top of low solar which will increase the chance of blocking.  I read through some research on Mid Atlantic board that found blocking chances are 4x higher in low solar than other years.

 

The NAO is showing signs of dropping into negative territory by the end of November for the first time in months! 

1F580361-1505-42DD-9817-A3E26C65C400.thumb.png.21bfde4082394a04f0ba48c9d329745a.png

The stars certainly are aligning about as good as you can hope for for winter in the east. 

 

Its almost time to start looking at actual pattern trends as we get into late October! 

 

1.  Niño is establishing Itself

2.  Hint of -NAO soon?

3.  Some increased blocking this October is leading Toward some very early east coast systems

 

 

Get ready boys.  Winter looks fun.

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23 hours ago, griteater said:

 

At 30mb, it should be up to around zero for October (i.e. transitioning from negative to positive), and continue climbing positive thru winter.  At 50mb, it should remain negative for at least the first half of winter.

I thought for good blocking Grit, we would want to stay -10  to -20? Somewhere thereabouts. Fly in the ointment? 

Generally I'm going with the persistence model until it breaks.  Last few years, we haven't had any NA blocking at all.  Cold came from west coast ridging and the -EPO.  Had a healthy dose of WAR too.  My preliminary bet is we generally get more of the same this year.    I'm fine with that though if we can just get the STJ rolling.  If Nino can at least give us that, we should do just fine. 

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39 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I thought for good blocking Grit, we would want to stay -10  to -20? Somewhere thereabouts. Fly in the ointment?

Doing a quick tally, and looking at winters in which the (AO+NAO)/2 was negative, and when the QBO at 45mb averaged for Jan-Feb was distinctly positive or negative, I have 14 winters with +QBO and 10 with -QBO.  That's for the QBO at 45mb.  Some do QBO analysis at the 30mb level.  For this winter, we are likely to see the transition from -QBO to +QBO at 45mb in the Jan-Feb timeframe.

Here's today's winter outlook posted from BAMWX.com.  They have a cold outlook, but they are balanced and will go warm if it warrants - https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/1052596019635081217

TzczSDT.gif

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9 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

I thought for good blocking Grit, we would want to stay -10  to -20? Somewhere thereabouts. Fly in the ointment? 

Generally I'm going with the persistence model until it breaks.  Last few years, we haven't had any NA blocking at all.  Cold came from west coast ridging and the -EPO.  Had a healthy dose of WAR too.  My preliminary bet is we generally get more of the same this year.    I'm fine with that though if we can just get the STJ rolling.  If Nino can at least give us that, we should do just fine. 

Didn't we have a ginormous historic NA block this past March?

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All this cold and snow horn blowing going on is going to totally jinx the whole thing! :frostymelt:

Thought you guys knew better than that, Old Man Winter hates to be anticipated; when he's expected, forget it.

If you guys will be quiet, and he does show up, I'll be interested to see if CAE gets its first measurable snow since 2.1 inches on Feb 12th 2014; going on five years. I know we talked about it last year but the streak continues.

GSP s streak of less than double digit inches continues as well. Just looking back since 1960, it received at least 10 inches in 14 out of 34 winters (about once every 2.5 winters) through 1993, but has not done so a single winter since. We're due!

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All this cold and snow horn blowing going on is going to totally jinx the whole thing! :frostymelt:
Thought you guys knew better than that, Old Man Winter hates to be anticipated; when he's expected, forget it.
If you guys will be quiet, and he does show up, I'll be interested to see if CAE gets its first measurable snow since 2.1 inches on Feb 12th 2014; going on five years. I know we talked about it last year but the streak continues.
GSP s streak of less than double digit inches continues as well. Just looking back since 1960, it received at least 10 inches in 14 out of 34 winters (about once every 2.5 winters) through 1993, but has not done so a single winter since. We're due!
I agree, at FLO since 2000 we've had a total of 32" to date.(according to NWS Wilmington) or about 2" every year. We had 2.5" back in January.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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13 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Didn't we have a ginormous historic NA block this past March?

I think we have them in March and April every year....when it doesn't matter anymore (spring).  I'm referring to Dec, Jan, Feb Greenland blocking.  We just don't seem to get it anymore.  -EPO block in Alaska yes, Greenland -NAO block no.  I bet that trend continues this year.  Anthony Masiello already doesn't think big -NAO blocking is going to happen this December either.  I actually understood a few of his tweets today!  I would love some good Atlantic blocking but I'll be happy with a steady STJ keeping waves coming, eventually meeting up with a cold air mass. 

 

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9 hours ago, tonysc said:

Well the NWS says   "No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures."

 

3 hours ago, Poimen said:

A very warm winter forecast from NSF today, too, for the vast majority of the US. But that forecast seems heavily dependent on Siberian snow cover. 

Are they forgetting this is an El Nino winter?... 

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4 hours ago, Poimen said:

A very warm winter forecast from NSF today, too, for the vast majority of the US. But that forecast seems heavily dependent on Siberian snow cover. 

Who is the NSF?

I am intrigued about the Siberian snow cover thing.  Seems like Dr. Cohen's theory has taken a beating the last few years.

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7 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Who is the NSF?

I am intrigued about the Siberian snow cover thing.  Seems like Dr. Cohen's theory has taken a beating the last few years.

It's Cohen's forecast via the National Science Foundation. He did say it was preliminary and would issue a final call in early November. 

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35 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

^^I agree, an equal chance temp forecast from NOAA is actually good for these times. Dealing with the NFS map, that looks like a strong el nino signal. That shouldn't happen. I know it uses the snow coverage build up in its calculations but we all know enso is one of the few proven weather influencers.    

Not that I put too much credence into seasonal models, but the take away from those IRI maps to me is both Alaska and Greenland are above normal temperatures.  That's usually a good thing the for the southeast even though there's no blues down our way.  

That NSF map though...yuck. :yikes: Let's just hope that's an outlier. 

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